Afghan peace
talks
Three events in
quick succession point to increased efforts to find a solution to the long
running war that can bring peace and stability not only to long suffering
Afghanistan but also to the region, in which Pakistan has the paramount role in
this context. First, over 50 Afghan political and social leaders gathered for a
Track-II dialogue in Bhurban recently at the invitation of Pakistani groups
with state support. Then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo paid a flying visit
to Kabul where he met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Abdullah
Abdullah and former president Hamid Karzai. Last but not least, President Ashraf
Ghani has just completed a two-day visit to Pakistan, during which he had
meetings with Prime Minister Imran Khan, President Arif Alvi and COAS General
Qamar Javed Bajwa. If the sparse media statements available after these
interactions are taken together, there is an eerie sameness to what is being
said, down to even the choice of words. Every side in the conflict seems agreed
on finding ways to end the war. But that is arguably where the consensus begins
and ends. For example, the US is agreed in principle to withdrawing its troops
provided it receives guarantees from the Taliban that Afghan soil will never
again be allowed to be used against the US or its allies. Washington is not
only pressing the Taliban to engage the Afghan government in an intra-Afghan
dialogue that can not only feed into the current negotiations, but also discuss
the shape of things to come after the foreign troops withdraw. The Taliban on
the other hand insist the US must first announce a withdrawal of all foreign
troops while they state in principle that they will not allow their soil to
ever again be used a la 9/11. However, they adamantly refuse to hold talks with
the Afghan government, dubbing it a ‘puppet’. Kabul, whatever its feelings
about Track-II and other ‘unofficial’ meetings in Pakistan, Russia or
elsewhere, has not come out strongly against such activities, perhaps because
it knows its weakness and inability to stop this ‘sideshow’ where its
representation is conspicuous by its absence. President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to
Pakistan, his third but after a gap of four years, indicates Kabul’s desire to
position itself centre-stage in the ongoing rounds of talks lest it be
relegated to the margins. The visit produced a ritual spate of statements from
both sides about their desire for closer ties across the whole gamut of
relations, but precious little of concrete value.
The fourth
interlocutor, Pakistan, has for some time now been arguing publicly for an
‘Afghan-owned intra-Afghan dialogue’ as the path to peace and stability inside
Afghanistan and in its regional environs. This is a marked difference from its
alleged support to the Afghan Taliban since 2001, which arguably has led to
blunting the hold of the US and its Afghan allies on the country. This defeat
by attrition could have been, and indeed was foreseen by the handful of
informed observers with their ear close to the ground. Washington in muted tones
so far blames Pakistan for its defeat. Whatever the implications of this for
US-Pakistan relations, the convergence in principle of all the stakeholders in
the Afghan conundrum promises a brighter future but on the ground there remain
many obstacles, some of which have been outlined above. The greatest concern
for a considerable section of the Afghan people who are anti-Taliban is whether
the relative freedoms achieved after their overthrow will survive a peace
settlement despite the Taliban’s placatory noises in this regard. A foreign
troops withdrawal without firm counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban and
an agreed political dispensation post-withdrawal would be the worst outcome and
likely lay the foundations of a fresh civil war with all its ramifications and
spillover effects. Pakistan is aware of the inimical presence of the Pakistani
Taliban ensconced on Afghan soil just across the border. For this reason as
well as the mutual interest of all parties in ending the conflict, all eyes, sceptical
and hopeful, are turned once again on the seventh round of US-Taliban talks in
Doha that started on June 29, 2019. Difficult as a settlement seems, a
continuation of the bloodletting is not an option.
No comments:
Post a Comment