New world disorder
Rashed Rahman
In just one year of his second term as US President, Donald Trump has shaken the so-called ‘rules-based international order’ to its roots. ‘So-called’ because in practice, the rules were chalked up in favour of the US-led West and against all countries that dared defy the former’s will. Nevertheless, that order functioned behind a veil of ‘principles’ that were trotted out when it suited the world powers-that-be and conveniently shelved or forgotten when it did not. That veil has been punctured and torn to shreds by Trump.
From the kidnapping of Venezuela’s President Maduro and his wife to essentially recapture the country’s oil, to threatening the takeover of Greenland, overthrow of the socialist government of Cuba, hijacking the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians by tailoring the Board of Peace in the former’s favour, signalling a reduction of military support to Europe implying the latter would no longer enjoy the luxury of reduced defence spending, and launching military action (with Israeli help) against Iran unless it bends the knee to Washington, Trump has upset the structure of international relations that emerged after WWII and to some extent, kept the world revolving. But it would be a mistake to confine the by now naked US drive for global hegemony and Israel’s expansionist ambitions in the Middle East to the Trump era alone.
Following the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, Washington perceived its path clear to achieve its triumphalist goal. After the 1973 Arab-Israel war, a growing wish-list of Arab countries seeking normalisation with and recognition of Israel came into view, starting with Egypt under Anwar Sadat. The Gulf Arab states were willing to join this parade but waited for circumstances to smooth the path to normalisation. Meanwhile three Arab states were identified as hold-outs: Libya, Iraq and Syria. By now, all three have suffered catastrophic direct and indirect US military aggression, failed regime change, and, as a consequence, lingering internal conflict. Not that this bothered US Presidents past or current since in Washington’s world view, developing countries’ citizens’ lives are all too dispensable. When Hamas mounted its unprecedented attack on Israel in 2023, the genocidal campaign against the Palestinians in Gaza by Israel brought to the fore the ‘axis of resistance’, with Iran at its centre and Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen aligning themselves in solidarity with the Palestinians. The latter, before 2023 and to date, have also been the victims of the unwanted attention of Zionist settlers in the West Bank. Having concluded, on the basis of the post-2023 struggle, that this axis of resistance posed the last obstacle to Israel’s expansionist mania in the Middle East and the US’s drive for global hegemony (with oil playing a central role), these two ‘criminals-in-arms’ have relaunched an unprecedented military attack on Iran, sparing neither its leadership (Ayatollah Khamenei), military, economic, civilian infrastructure, nor even its children.
In the second week of the US-Israeli criminal aggression against Iran, the unremitting bombardment of the latter has yielded hundreds if not thousands of casualties, killed and wounded. The US may well be hiding the true numbers of its own casualties because of Iran’s defensive effective retaliation, having admitted so far to only seven of its soldiers killed. Lebanon, meantime, is being terrorised by Israel in its vain effort to crush Hezbollah, calling repeatedly by now for Lebanese citizens to evacuate southern Lebanon to clear Israel’s sights for another massacre. However, whether Iran or Hezbollah, the US-Israel criminal combine has failed to understand a basic, but undeniable series of truths. One, the US-Israeli desired regime change in Iran has yielded Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain Iranian leader, as a result! So much for regime change from the air. Two, even if the US-Israeli criminal combine’s superior technologically advanced weapons succeed in knocking out if not wearing out Iran’s comparative arsenal (by no means to be sneezed at), what this aggression cannot do is overcome the spirit of resistance. This spirit amongst Shia believers embraces martyrdom as the highest, purest form of exalted sacrifice that guarantees a place in heaven. Can such a spirit be extinguished by material force advantage alone?
To Pakistan’s discomfort, its one day old ‘war’ against Afghanistan’s Taliban regime was overshadowed by the start of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Pakistan, despite its heavy attacks on Taliban forces across the border or its successful interdiction of attempted Taliban infiltration into its territory, has had a hard time attracting the world’s attention to its conflict, fixed as the global gaze appears to be on what is transpiring further west. This is not the only cause for discomfort. Islamabad wishes to remain and prove its friendship with Tehran while not annoying the all too easily riled Trump. Those basking in Pakistan’s ability to retain a ‘balance’ in its relationship with China and the US simultaneously may be hoping such a ‘balance’ can also be struck between its relationship with Iran and the US. But the latter effort seems more difficult. And then there is the conundrum of our defence pact with Saudi Arabia, through which we may be called upon to protect Saudi targets from Iranian attack. And what will remain of Trump’s Board of Peace for Palestine after the destruction he has wrought in Iran? The Muslim world as a whole, and Pakistan in particular, would appear to have its knickers in a twist in this complex interplay of competing, contradictory interests.
The first priority for the Shahbaz Sharif government naturally would be to handle the fallout of the US-Israel-Iran war on oil prices. We may have attempted to pre-empt the anticipated rise in global oil prices with a Rs 55 jump, but two days after this ‘brave’ decision, the international price of oil has already crossed the dreaded $ 100 per barrel, with more to come no doubt. Hard times ahead, in which a hard rain’s gonna fall.
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