Flux and
uncertainty
Rashed Rahman
The polity is
still in the grip of flux and uncertainty despite almost a year since the
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government took office. First and foremost of
course is its dismal handling of the economy, which clearly seems headed south,
with more pain to be inflicted if and when the federal budget is passed. The
PTI government, widely believed to have been imposed through a flawed or rigged
election (take your pick), seems to be still enjoying the support of the
establishment that is believed to be the author of the scheme to bring Imran
Khan to power. In return, the government has decided to benefit from the advice
and views of COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa by making him a member of the newly
formed National Development Council, although what this Council will contribute
to the deliberations, decision making and policies of the government seems
still up in the air.
Meanwhile, after
a slow and somewhat tortuous process, the opposition has finally decided on
June 26, 2019 as the date for its All Parties Conference, much to the delight
of convener Maulana Fazlur Rehman. However, this may only prove the beginning
of a lengthy process of discussions amongst the opposition parties. The reasons
are as follows. The opposition parties’ stakes converge in their common
interest in seeing the back of the PTI government. However, that is perhaps where
the harmony begins and ends.
Maulana Fazlur
Rehman is champing at the bit since the 2018 elections (in which he lost his
seat) to mount a long march on and shutdown of Islamabad. Both the PPP and
PML-N have leaders behind bars but do not seem certain of their strategy. PPP’s
Asif Ali Zardari and his sister Faryal Talpur have been arrested in the fake
bank accounts case, and an application has been moved by the ruling PTI to the
Election Commission of Pakistan to disqualify her. PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif has
been sentenced and is ensconced in jail, with persistent reports regarding his
poor health and risks to life. If God forbid something were to happen to him in
jail, one shudders to contemplate the fallout. After all, as his daughter
Maryam Nawaz reminded us the other day in her press conference, Pakistan is not
Egypt (despite some similarities in their political history) and Nawaz Sharif
is not (the late) Morsi. There are also all sorts of speculations (some perhaps
motivated) of a ‘split’ between the policies of Nawaz Sharif and his younger
brother and president of the PML-N Shahbaz Sharif.
Whether the
opposition is a house divided will only become known after the All Parties
Conference. The threat of more arrests of PPP and PML-N leaders, if it
transpires, is likely to spur on the opposition to further close ranks. Despite
that, it is still not clear whether the combined opposition wants to go for
broke (oust the government) or just exert pressure. If the widespread
perception (reinforced every day by the PTI’s fulminations) that the latter
tactic is intended to ease some of the targeting of the two main parties’
leadership is correct, this is unlikely to incentivise the masses to come out
in agitation mode despite their cries of suffering on account of inflation,
unemployment, rise in utility tariffs (with more to come in the budget), etc.
What the
opposition lacks is a credible programme that offers the people some hope of
relief or succour from the tsunami of privations and misery unleashed by the
PTI government in its relatively short time in office. Though the lava of mass
unrest is bubbling, it may not be triggered to explode onto the surface until
and unless the people feel they are risking life and limb for something
worthwhile for them, not just a ‘rescue’ act for the beleaguered opposition
leadership. This obstacle nevertheless does not rule out spontaneous explosions
of mass resistance here and there. If this were to occur in the absence of
clear leadership of the movement by the opposition parties, it would likely be
anarchic and perhaps even violent. Were the government to attempt to suppress
such manifestations by force, they could inadvertently trigger a bigger tsunami
of protest with the possibility that the opposition mainstream and the
relatively anarchic mass protests may find common cause despite the arguments
presented above.
The opposition
has a great deal to thank the PTI government for. Its actions and policies have
paved the way for the off again on again daggers drawn PPP and PML-N to once
again go into ‘cooperation’ overdrive. The pattern of political convergence and
divergence between the two is part of the woof and warp of our history. It was precisely
to stop the game of the establishment playing off one against the other in the
1990s that persuaded the late Benazir Bhutto (and later Nawaz Sharif) to sign
the Charter of Democracy in exile in London in 2006. The fact that her
successor, Asif Zardari, and Nawaz Sharif soon returned to the old familiar ways
of doing each other down has ended in a ‘termination’ of the two-party
‘system’. It has been replaced by a third party, widely considered a creature
of the establishment.
Another reason
why some hesitation can be detected in the pronouncements and stance of the
opposition parties is the uncertainty of what may follow an ouster of the PTI
government. Going by the past, this has usually ended in a praetorian
dispensation. Whether such a gambit would succeed in today’s world, and whether
it is even part of war gaming is unknown. As some commentators have repeatedly
said, in the absence of a Plan B, sticking with Plan A despite the difficulties
seems the best course.
The dominance of
state institutions inherited from colonialism at the time of independence over
the political forces has now reached its apogee. Unless the opposition comes up
with a workable plan to roll back the establishment’s real grip on power, they
(and we as a result) will continue to be condemned to little more than
supplicants at the high table for a seat.
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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