The year in
retrospect
As 2018 draws to
a close, it may be instructive to cast a glance back at the major events and
trends that characterised a year full of surprises, unexpected developments and
worrying outcomes. US President Donald Trump kicked off the new year with a
castigation of Pakistan’s role in Afghanistan, a complaint that led to the
suspension of all aid from Washington. However, towards the end of the year,
both the tone and attitude of Washington changed from hostile to seeking
Islamabad’s help in pushing a peaceful resolution of the US’s longest running
foreign war. On the eve of 2019, Trump announced a total troop withdrawal from
Syria and a partial one from Afghanistan. Whether the latter move will assist
the regional and international stakeholders in the Afghan conflict to arrive at
a negotiated end to the war or may lead to a Taliban victory is still wrapped
in uncertainty. Trump, never keen on the US’s foreign military engagements,
acted so precipitately in arriving at his withdrawal decisions that he left
allies, aides and the world gasping. The sudden and inexplicable decisions
exacerbated the disarray in his administration with more departures, most
prominently Secretary of Defence James Mattis.
On the domestic
front, Pakistan saw PML-N leader and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif
continuing to suffer legal troubles. As if his lifelong disqualification in the
Panama case in 2017 was not enough, he had to face imprisonment along with his daughter
Maryam Nawaz and son-in-law Safdar for 63 days earlier until the Islamabad High
Court suspended the accountability court sentence pending the hearing of the
Sharifs’ appeals. That however did not save him from a seven-year rigorous
imprisonment sentence and fines of $ 25 million and Rs 1.5 billion in the
Al-Azizia/Hill Metal Establishment reference, while being acquitted in the
Flagship Investment case. Both decisions are likely to be appealed, the former
by Nawaz, the latter by NAB. Meanwhile Nawaz will cool his heels in Kot Lakhpat
Jail, Lahore. Shahbaz Sharif too remains in NAB custody facing various
references. The accountability process seems poised to target Asif Zardari and
Faryal Talpur next in the false bank accounts and other alleged corruption
issues. If the Zardaris too go the way of the Sharifs, the vacuum of leadership
at the helm of these two mainstream opposition parties, the PPP and the PML-N,
may be filled by a collective leadership.
Perhaps even
more significantly, the controversial 2018 general elections brought long
standing aspirant Imran Khan to the prime minister’s chair. While the
opposition demand for an examination of the fairness of the 2018 elections withers
on the vine in a parliamentary committee yet to become functional, the PTI
government faces formidable challenges, chief among which is the ailing
economy. While Pakistan seems by now well placed regionally and internationally
as having its image of a Taliban supporter in Afghanistan change to that of a
peacemaker, it is the economy that in its first five months in office has
proved a tougher nut to crack than the PTI imagined. The twin external and
fiscal deficits still seem troublesome despite aid from friendly countries
(Saudi Arabia, UAE, China), with the unresolved IMF negotiations keeping the
door to other international financial institutions closed. Even more worrying,
if Adviser to Prime Minister on Commerce and Industry Razzak Dawood is to be believed,
the government is only now beginning to get its head around the decades old
creeping process of deindustrialisation that has put paid to the dream of a
modern, prosperous economy. The government’s handling of the economy in these
first five months revealed its team’s inexperience, a forgivable fact provided
it put its head down and educated itself on the issues of and solutions to the
economy’s travails.
While the jury
is out on whether the PTI government has course corrected its handling of the economy,
without which there would be profound implications for our society, the
political landscape too suffers from uncertainty and polarisation because of
the almost exclusively opposition-targeted accountability drive. The
government’s spokesmen’s constant railing against the opposition on corruption
allegations even before their cases have been decided has vitiated the
atmosphere and cast doubts on the impartiality of the accountability regime. Last
but not least, the legitimacy and credibility of the PTI government still
carries the shadow of the military establishment-judiciary nexus perceived to
be acting in its support against all other comers.
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