100 days and
still waiting
Rashed Rahman
The Pakistan
Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan seems to
have a talent for shooting itself in the foot. By pushing the 100-day deadline
for demonstrating its progress and policy direction, the government unnecessarily
put enormous pressure on itself to live up to the difficult promise. And so it
has proved. The government tried to put the best gloss possible on its efforts
(through advertisements, for example, headlining: “We’ve been busy”) but the
outcome/s seem nebulous, peripheral, and do not inspire confidence.
Everyone knew
this government’s team was inexperienced and raw as far as running the country
was concerned. Despite the controversy over allegations by the opposition that the
2018 elections were selectively rigged, the parliamentary committee to examine
the issue is still bogged down in discussing its Terms of Reference (ToRs). Elections
monitoring NGO FAFEN has seemingly given the Election Commission of Pakistan a clean
chit in this regards, but the PPP at least has interrogated FAFEN’s findings.
The rigging issue may not be resolved anytime soon but the incoming government
at least should have shed its public bravado of ‘knowing it all’ and put their
heads down, burnt some midnight oil and come out after due deliberation with
policies well thought through and therefore not requiring reversal (U-turns)
every other day. Instead, despite the claims of having been busy through the
first 100 days of its tenure, nothing better characterises the government than
dithering, floundering, and just plain incompetence.
The first and
urgent priority was obviously the economy. Business confidence was hard to come
by even before the government’s hoop-la regarding its 100-day performance. After
the claims of ‘progress’ and generalised policy pronouncements to commemorate
the 100-day self-imposed deadline, the markets responded emphatically. The
rupee suffered a ‘massacre’ at the hands of the dollar, with a new subsequent
controversy surfacing on December 3, 2018, according to which the State Bank of
Pakistan allowed the rupee’s massive devaluation without informing or getting
the nod from the Ministry of Finance. Journalists were therefore justified in
asking Prime Minister Imran Khan who exactly was running the government. The stock
exchange has voted with massive decline in its index.
All the economic
indicators point to disaster. Neither the external current account nor fiscal
deficit have been adequately addressed. Bail-outs are relatively niggardly from
friendly countries such as Saudi Arabia ($ three billion over three years to
bolster foreign exchange reserves, and a rolling credit of $ three billion in
the shape of deferred oil import payments). A similar bail-out package is still
awaited from the UAE. China has indicated no hard cash, only investments, which
are only useful for the long term, no good for resolving the immediate crisis.
Malaysia too has chosen the possible investments path. The IMF once again looms
as the lender of last resort, with strict conditionalities designed to dampen
demand (the basic interest rate raise to 10 percent will have the same effect),
impose austerity and thereby put paid to the government’s ambitious plans to
generate 10 million jobs and build five million houses. Imports can only be
restricted up to a point since around 90 percent are raw materials and plant
and machinery without which struggling industry cannot function. Export
surpluses are limited and internationally uncompetitive since state-of-the-art
technology is still the exception rather than the rule in our industrial
sector.
The government
is being accused by the opposition and critics as being manned by blind, deaf,
incapable people and increasingly being dubbed unlikely to last long. On
December 3, 2018, reports said Prime Minister Imran Khan himself had hinted at
fresh snap polls. So much for this ‘experiment’. The alarming aspect is there
is no Plan B or alternative waiting in the wings except the same opposition
parties being maligned (not always unjustly, it must be said) as corrupt to the
core.
Corruption is
endemic to our system, as the examples of demolished long standing
encroachments and the ever so busy activities of the National Accountability
Bureau indicate. Sooner or later, the wheel of fortune was expected to, and may
have started turning to put the alleged corrupt in the PTI ranks in the dock
too. Even ‘perfect’, law-ruled developed countries have their quota of corrupt
practices, albeit more by way of exception. This is because capitalism puts
material greed at the heart of its system, opening the door to human avarice
with no holds barred.
Prime Minister
Imran Khan was able to get away with some of his less profound pronouncements
in opposition. He is now learning that cannot happen as the prime minister (of
which fact he claims he needs frequent reminding). The ‘chicken and eggs’
poverty alleviation idea and demolition of Lahore’s Governor’s House boundary
wall are ill thought through floaters. The former has been discredited in its
original author Bill Gates’ Foundations efforts in the third world as
unfeasible. The latter has attracted a stay order of the Lahore High Court
until determination whether the demolition is allowed by the Antiquities Act
1975.
Prime Minister
Imran Khan and his PTI government must by now begin to learn to seek sound
professional advice and be careful and circumspect in their pronouncements and
decisions if they are to reverse the tide of adverse comment and perception
building up against them. Otherwise they may be poised to go down as a nine day
wonder that turned the country into a laughing stock.
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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