Trump’s unending
follies
Donald Trump has
proved to be the most erratic President in the US’s history. A string of
whimsical, knee-jerk decisions have roiled the domestic scene as well as the
world’s strategic landscape. His latest gaffe may prove the most asinine of
all. In a surprise announcement, Trump announced the US would be withdrawing
all 2,000 US troops from Syria. This was followed by the news that about half
the remaining US troops in Afghanistan, around 7,000, would also be withdrawn.
These decisions came despite the disagreement of senior aides. Following a last
ditch effort by Defence Secretary James Mattis to persuade Trump to reverse
these ill thought through decisions, he resigned. Mattis thus becomes the
latest in the continuous parade of senior administration officials to fall out
with their erratic boss and leave. Such is the state of morale in the
administration that replacements are proving difficult to find. Mattis, a
four-star retired Marine general with 40 years of combat experience was widely
respected at home and abroad for being the ‘only adult’ in the Oval Office. His
departure and the decisions that prompted it have worried US allies from Europe
to the Asia-Pacific. The Syrian withdrawal without so much as an effort at some
quid pro quo sends exactly the wrong signal to allies and enemies. The Kurdish
militia YPG, as part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces has been at the
forefront of the struggle against Islamic State (IS). It now stands abandoned
and facing a possible two-front war if Turkey’s Erdogan follows through on his
pledge to mount a military campaign against the YPG that Turkey considers
aligned with the Turkish PKK in southeast Turkey. YPG’s response says it all.
They say they may have to abandon frontline positions along the Euphrates River
(where IS has been pushed into a sliver of territory) to defend themselves
against any Turkish offensive. The Kurds must be ruing having trusted the US.
They find themselves abandoned in the middle of an existential struggle like so
many allies the US has used and then thrown away like toilet paper in its
adventures abroad. The gainers from Trump’s decision will be Russia (Putin is
delighted), Iran, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the remaining IS that is
far from completely eliminated. The fallout of the Afghan decision may prove
even more severe. Despite brave words from the Kabul government, its
consternation is floating on the surface. If the Syrian decision can be questioned
as to its timing and logic, the Afghan withdrawal decision beggars belief. The
US has of late been engaged in intensive negotiations with the Afghan Taliban
to seek a peaceful end to US involvement in that country. With battlefield
realities increasingly showing Taliban territorial gains and the casualty rate
of the Afghan forces being described as unsustainable, Trump has handed the
prospect of victory on a silver platter to the Taliban, a prospect that sends
shivers down the spine of Afghan citizens. Although European allies and NATO have
respectively vowed to continue their engagement in Syria and Afghanistan, their
capitals have been rocked by Trump’s inexplicable decisions that owe more to
appeasing his domestic political base by following through on his campaign
promises with nary a thought for the consequences.
Donald Trump is
the greatest anomaly to have graced the White House. Part of the ‘populist’
right wing surge in the US and many parts of Europe, it is a phenomenon that
can only be described as operating on pre-conceived notions and if the awkward
facts do not fit into that scenario, so much the worse for the facts. The
Syrian withdrawal promises trouble at Turkey’s hands for the Kurds as reward
for their sacrifices in the war against IS, and a bounty for Russia, Iran and
Assad. The Afghan withdrawal offers the frightening prospect of the Taliban’s return
to power, with little assurance (a minimum demand the US seems to have accepted
in its negotiations with the Taliban) that another 9/11 will never recur. Trump’s
decisions are neither in the US’s own interests nor those of its allies that he
is signalling are now more or less on their own. The only sound amidst the
deafening silence in the wake of this foolishness is the chuckling in the
Kremlin, Tehran, and in the Afghan Taliban ranks.
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