Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Business Recorder Column July 17, 2018

A controversial election

Rashed Rahman

Before even a single ballot has been cast in the July 25, 2018 general elections, the whole exercise has been rendered controversial. So much so that this election is being described as the most partisan, unfair and non-transparent in our history. While the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its leading family the Sharifs feel hard done by at the hands of the judiciary and the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), not to mention their allegations of the deep state indulging in pre-poll rigging, almost all the mainstream political parties, including the Left but excluding only Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), now are chiming in with similar reservations about these elections not providing a level playing field to any party except the PTI.
The PML-N in particular has had many of its candidates ‘nudged’ into defecting. The other parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), are now complaining of restrictions on their electoral campaigns. Terrorism that struck in Peshawar on July 10 (killing Haroon Bilour and 19 others), Bannu (targeting Akram Durrani who survived but four of his companions were killed) and Mastung on July 13 (in which Nawabzada Siraj Raisani and 129 others were massacred) has added another dimension to the troubled scenario. Claims of responsibility for these terrorist atrocities have come from Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Daesh. The only point of agreement between the PTI and all other political parties is against terrorism (for a change Taliban Khan having seen sense), which is perceived as having been currently unleashed to sabotage the elections. Across the board (including Imran Khan) there is moaning about the failure to implement the National Action Plan against terrorism and extremism. The country is now paying the price of leaving counterterrorism dangling in the breeze after the success of the counter-insurgency military operations in erstwhile FATA. Instead, a new affliction has been visited on us in the shape of the mainstreaming of proscribed terrorist groups and/or their co-option by some political parties. On all other issues, this election’s divide resembles nothing more than a fight between the allegedly establishment-backed PTI and the rest.
Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz’s return from London, arrest and transportation to Adyala Jail has the country in its grip, whether you are a supporter or opposed to the PML-N. Even Co-chairperson of the PPP Asif Zardari has felt compelled to condemn the terrorism charges framed against top PML-N leaders on the basis of the clashes between the PML-N workers and police on the occasion of Nawaz and Maryam’s landing in Lahore on July 13. Zardari has also spoken against the curbs on the media and expression in the middle of an election. Contrary to some (weak) speculations that Asif Zardari had struck a deal with the establishment to position his party as the power broker and king maker in a widely anticipated hung parliament to emerge from the July 25 polls, Imran Khan through his bad mouthing the Sharifs and Zardari in the same breath has made any ‘alliance’ between the PTI and PPP that much more remote if not impossible. In fact Zardari has criticised Imran Khan for his constant bad mouthing of rival parties, especially his latest gaffe of describing PML-N supporters who turned out to protest Nawaz and Maryam’s being sent to jail as ‘donkeys’. Zardari pointed out that the bullet (meaning terrorism) and bad mouthing (Imran) are enemies of democracy. The PPP too has been complaining of the absence of a level playing field, restrictions on Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s campaigning, and the absence of effective security for the contending candidates in the field.
Meanwhile our very own ‘Prisoner of Zenda’ and his daughter have released video messages after being jailed. Nawaz Sharif has described the situation as one in which the whole country has been turned into a prison, a turn when the time has come to break all the shackles. Maryam argues her imprisonment is owed to her being Nawaz Sharif’s daughter. Further arrests of PML-N leaders and workers are being planned by the caretaker governments at the Centre and in Punjab. With each new arrest, the PML-N’s narrative of giving respect to the vote will find fresh traction with the people at large.
A considerable body of opinion amongst the political parties with the exception of the PTI argues that the results of the July 25 elections have already been made controversial and have been almost already rigged. Mainstream political parties have even taken the unprecedented step of naming names of deep state functionaries indulging in pre-poll rigging. The PPP is yet undecided if it will accept the results of this gerrymandered election or come out in protest. If the PML-N and other non-favoured parties join this rejection of the results, a grave political crisis could follow, with unforeseen consequences. Even if this worrying scenario does not emerge, a hung parliament in which no party has a simple majority will likely yield a weak, disparate, unwieldy coalition led by the PTI with the support of smaller parties, independents (especially those sporting the ‘jeep’ symbol), etc. Such a government will not be able to tackle the serious challenges confronting the country, whether in the realm of the economy, internal security, defence or foreign policy. If it surrenders the last three to the establishment, its own credibility will start approaching zero.
If none of the rival mainstream political parties, large or small, can be enticed into such a coalition in significant numbers, the opposition benches in parliament, with the PML-N and PPP at their core, will make life difficult for the government both inside and outside parliament.
The forthcoming picture therefore is of tension, polarisation, conflict, instability and possible chaos. Hardly a cheery prospect.






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