Tuesday, April 11, 2023

Business Recorder Column April 11, 2023

Institutional meltdown

 

Rashed Rahman

 

The business of writing a weekly column has become increasingly stressful in recent days. One reason for this is the fast, and increasingly speeding up, pace of events. Second, perhaps column writers are forced to repeat the same facts and arguments, an endeavour that risks reader burnout. Nevertheless, all these obstacles notwithstanding, the column beckons.

Pakistan has been witnessing a clash between the institutions of the state. Foremost mention in this regard belongs to the superior judiciary (particularly the Supreme Court or SC) on the one hand, and the executive (federal government) and parliament on the other. The three pillars of the state therefore appear at daggers drawn. The manner in which this conflict is playing out resembles nothing more than a virtual institutional meltdown. At the time of writing these lines, the breaking news is that a joint session of parliament has passed the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Bill 2023, clipping the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial’s suo motu powers and his sole prerogative to set up benches of the apex court, especially in sensitive political cases.

How have things come to such a pass? The explanation is neither easy, nor without twists and turns throughout our history. But if this complex history can be boiled down to its essentials, it is the role of the powerful military establishment and its repeated interventions in politics that all roads lead to. This includes four military dictatorships, and the penchant of the military establishment to create, nurture and bring to power new political leaders since at least General Ziaul Haq’s regime. It is another matter that each time, the cat’s paw sooner or later falls out with its creator, leading to fresh crises that have both similarities and some differences with past such endeavours. To mention in one breath the likes of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan, despite what appears to be their current ‘fight to the death’, is indicative of this mixed up and down fate of all satraps of the military establishment.

Of course the military establishment’s efforts have received legitimacy for their own seizures of power and the birth of ‘new’ collaborative leaders from our superior judiciary, starting from the infamous ‘doctrine of necessity’ authored by then CJP Munir in the late 1950s to the disqualification and imprisonment of Nawaz Sharif in 2017. Along the way, the superior judiciary can also ‘boast’ of its hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, cooperation with Ziaul Haq’s distortion of Pakistan’s polity and culture through so-called Islamisation, and giving Pervez Musharraf the ‘gift’ of the power to amend the Constitution without even being asked!

Musharraf’s removal of then CJP Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, the imposition of an emergency that confined all judges of the superior judiciary who refused to accede to his unconstitutional and illegal dictatorial wishes, gave rise to the Lawyers Movement, demanding the restoration of the judiciary. That did eventually transpire, swallowing up in the process the Musharraf regime. But one unintended consequence of this victory was the growing tendency of the restored judiciary to flex its muscles in matters political. CJP Bandial’s handling of suo motu cases and formation of benches has proved so controversial that the government felt it had no choice but to fight back through parliament. Interestingly, while the government has succeeded in its front foot strategy against the CJP and his handling of the affairs of the apex court, this development may have triggered a change of heart in that the CJP, reluctant all along to accede to the government and other stakeholders’ demand that the full court hear cases pertaining to, for example, the Punjab elections, has reportedly now reached out to his brother judges to try and heal the breach in the ranks of the SC judges.

However, CJP Bandial may have changed tack too late. The government’s (and many observers’) perception that the CJP has proved in practice alleged partiality for Imran Khan and his campaign to keep the country on the hop and destabilised to open up the possibility of him being returned to power, has dealt serious blows to the prestige, dignity and respect of the CJP and indeed the SC as a whole.

In the joint session where the bill clipping the CJP’s powers was passed, speeches made by parliamentarians from the treasury benches (the opposition, such as it was, spent the entire session raising loud slogans while being gathered in front of the Speaker’s dais) argued that political logic and the ground realities made holding elections in Punjab first tantamount to skewing unfairly the prospects of all electoral stakeholders in the federation in the general elections later, given the preponderant weight of Punjab in the parliamentary structure. They therefore argued once again, despite the controversial three-member bench of the SC’s ruling to hold the Punjab elections on May 14, 2023, that all elections, National and provincial Assemblies, be held on the same day. In a separate session, a resolution to this effect was passed by the Senate, the objections of the PTI opposition notwithstanding.

The question of providing Rs 21 billion to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) by the federal government on April 10, 2023, as ordered by the SC, could not be resolved so far, and a Ministry of Finance summary regarding the matter has been referred to a National Assembly committee to pore over and decide on the matter. This implies the ECP will be unable to report on it to the SC on April 11, 2023, as ordered. What that will produce is perhaps a subject for another day, another column.

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Tuesday, April 4, 2023

Business Recorder Column April 4, 2023

 Hanging by a hair’s thread

 

Rashed Rahman

 

As these lines are being written, all eyes are once more fixed on the Supreme Court (SC) hearing on the issue of delaying the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provincial elections beyond the constitutional 90-day limit till October 8, 2023 as decided by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), citing security and financing problems. The SC appears deeply divided as a result of the perceived manner of forming, breaking and reconstituting benches hearing sensitive cases such as the one above. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government has responded to alleged bias and partisanship in the formation of benches by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial by getting a bill passed by parliament (both houses) restricting the sole jurisdiction of the CJP in the formation of benches, particularly in suo motu notices. Instead, the bill lays down new rules requiring the CJP to constitute benches in consultation with the two most senior judges of the SC. The SC has seldom betrayed the kind of rift in its ranks witnessed today, despite the superior judiciary’s chequered track record in our history, a phenomenon that may make even the new rules difficult to implement. The bill also has introduced an unprecedented clause allowing appeals against suo motu judgements under matters within the purview of Article 184(3) of the Constitution, with retrospective effect. Observers are wont to ascribe this innovation to the government’s desire to appeal against Nawaz Sharif’s disqualification and jail punishment, as well as the desire to review the SC’s interpretation of Article 63 of the Constitution on floor crossing MNAs not being allowed to vote in a no-confidence motion.

It bears reiterating that this situation is the cumulative tipping point of the judicialisation of politics, which has had the consequence of politicising the judiciary (further?). One cannot predict the outcome of the April 3, 2023 SC hearing at this point. The government has criticised the fitful ‘shrinking’ of the bench hearing the case to three judges instead of the original nine. The original nine member bench went through wrenching twists and turns because of some judges’ recusal and dissenting notes feeding into the unending debate whether the SC’s order upholding the 90-day election limit and allowing the President to announce the election dates was passed by a 3-2 majority or failed to pass by a 4-3 majority. The CJP has so far refused to countenance the government’s demand, given this anomalous outcome, for a full court to hear the case to iron out the differences between judges, or allow dissenting judgements to see the clear light of day.

The serious crisis thrown up by these happenings in the apex court reflects an incremental institutional breakdown. The reasons are not hard to seek. When Imran Khan fell out with his facilitators the military establishment in 2021, the vote of no-confidence brought against him unseated his government and replaced it by the (then) opposition’s PDM coalition government headed by Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif. According to media reports, Nawaz Sharif from exile in London advised against the no-confidence move, perhaps because he of all the PDM leaders understood the negative political fallout of inheriting Imran Khan’s mismanagement of the economy, in which borrowing 76 percent of all the country’s previous loans since Independence was clearly going to impact Pakistan’s current account and balance of payments deficits. Also, Nawaz Sharif’s reasoning was that Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government should be left in place to complete his full term in order to let him further fall flat on its face in the presence of open conflict with the military establishment. However, Asif Ali Zardari’s anxiety to get the noose of the cases against him off his neck and perhaps the ambition of Shahbaz Sharif (in his brother’s absence) to avail what may be his only chance at the premiership prevailed over Nawaz Sharif’s astute political insight. The result has been the government’s steady and incremental loss of political capital because of the dire state of the economy, back-breaking inflation and increasing unemployment stemming from factory closures because of lack of dollars to open Letters of Credit (LCs) for necessary imports of plant, machinery, parts for assembly and raw materials. Imran Khan has rallied his troops on the street and in the media (mainstream and social) and his narrative is giving the government a run for its money. That is what explains the PTI’s decision to dissolve the Punjab and KP Assemblies where it was in power, calculating that its political momentum would help it secure electoral victories in both provinces as the curtain raiser to victory in the subsequent general elections.

Whatever the outcome of the case in the SC today, the floundering PDM government’s only hope of reversing its flagging fortunes is to seal the IMF deal as soon as possible, opening the door to (increasingly reluctant) other international and bilateral lenders. Between now and the October 2023 general elections, if some relief on the economic front becomes available to the government, it hopes its chances in the electoral contest would improve. However, the jury is still out since there is still many a slip between the cup and the lip.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Saturday, April 1, 2023

The April 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

The April 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Achin Vanaik: Marxism and Nationalism – I.

2. Kamil Khan Mumtaz: The City and the Poor: Master Plan Lahore Division 2025 – A case study of a Work in Progress.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)