tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57971190284753057412024-03-17T06:34:24.817-07:00Rashed RahmanRashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.comBlogger1885125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-29657141937975617872024-03-17T06:33:00.000-07:002024-03-17T06:33:48.736-07:00Lecture by Dr Aurangzeb Syed at RPC: "The new system of state power in Pakistan"<p>Research and Publication Centre (RPC) is holding a lecture by Dr Aurangzeb Syed visiting from the US on "The new system of state power in Pakistan" at RPC, 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore on Thursday, March 21, 2024 at 3:00 pm. </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span lang="EN-US">Dr Aurangzeb Syed is Professor Emeritus Northern Michigan University. He has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Punjab University (Thesis: Political Economy of Foreign Direct Investments in Pakistan), a Master’s degree in American Studies (Thesis: Socio-economic Transformations during British Colonialism in Pre-Pakistan areas) from the University of Buffalo, and a Ph.D. in Public Policy from Virginia Tech (Dissertation: Political Economy of Pakistan’s Energy Policy). He began his teaching career at the Punjab University in 1978 and has taught at various Universities in the US: Metropolitan State University, Denver; Virginia Tech; and finally Northern Michigan University.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span lang="EN-US">Aurangzeb was a political activist and participated in the socialist student movement as well as the Workers' movement in Lahore during the early to mid-1970s. He went abroad in 1975 for studies, first to Norway and then to the US where he continued his activism along with educational programmes. In Norway, he participated in the activities of the foreign workers branch of the Workers Communist Party of Norway (erstwhile AKP). He was also active with the PFLP (Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine) branch in Oslo. At the University of Buffalo, he helped organise the Third World Students Association, which promoted an anti-imperialist agenda and information.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.693333625793457px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span lang="EN-US">Throughout his academic career, he consistently applied the Marxist political-economic paradigm to the subject matter of the courses taught in areas such as international politics, politics in developing countries, political economy, US politics, US Foreign Policy, etc. Within the post-war Marxist tradition, he especially appreciates the works of Nicos Poulantzas in the field of political analysis, Capital Logic school (Michael Heinrich) in the analytical approach to Capitalism, and Roy Bhaskar’s Critical Realism in dialectical materialist philosophy of social sciences.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">For your urge to read something interesting and exciting, he recommends the recent (2015) political biography of Lenin by Tamas Krausz:</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><i>Reconstructing Lenin: An Intellectual Biography</i></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> (</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">Monthly Review Press, NY); Michael Heinrich’s biographical work</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"><i>Marx and the Birth of Modern Society</i></span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;"> </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt;">(2018), a multi-volume project of which only the first volume has been published so far, is very interesting in bringing to light the formation of Marx’s ideas during the years of his early youth.</span></p><p>All friends are welcome. Tea will be served after the lecture and audience question-answer session.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook) </p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-68982669469263476702024-03-12T03:04:00.000-07:002024-03-12T03:04:40.229-07:00Business Recorder Column March 12, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 24pt;">A tangled web indeed<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">As could be anticipated, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) protests on March 10, 2024 against alleged election rigging were nullified by the police, particularly in Punjab, where newly inducted Chief Minister (CM) Maryam Nawaz Sharif had promised to ‘crush’ any such manifestation. Sindh saw little of a heavy-handed government response, perhaps because the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government headed by CM Murad Shah is securely ensconced with a huge majority. Balochistan barely witnessed a murmur, underlying the reality that the PTI has little if any strength in the largest by area and most troubled by a nationalist insurgency province. Also as anticipated, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the PTI was not only able to mount protests without police hindrance but also hold a rally addressed by CM Ali Amin Gandapur in Peshawar. The explanation for this clear exception to the rule lies in the fact that the PTI is in power in KP. Most prominent PTI leaders were arrested in Punjab, some by being dragged out of vehicles. The response of the PTI leaders and workers to this time honoured treatment by the Punjab police was different from the past. It seems that the PTI has learnt some lessons from the May 9, 2023 fracas and its aftermath, and now plumbed for ‘peaceful resistance’.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">What is notable about the PTI’s protests on the street is the extraordinary array of gleaming vehicles. This is perhaps a reflection of its urban middle class base, particularly in Punjab. This relatively new phenomenon in the country’s politics points toward the changing social and political dynamic in the country, of which the PTI is the main beneficiary, having focused on this demographic since at least 2011. The question that remains unanswered is whether this urban middle class base can demonstrate in practice the efficacy of street protest, even if peaceful. It goes without saying, and the events of March 10, 2024 indicate that the incumbent government in Punjab particularly is in no mood to allow the PTI to gain momentum for its political campaign against alleged rigging of the elections through street power. Although the PTI has also seemingly learnt the lesson that abandoning parliament, as it did after its government’s removal in 2022, is bad strategy, it remains to be seen whether its clamorous opposition inside the Houses combined with its newfound Gandhian peaceful resistance on the streets can or will yield the expected results. For the PTI, those results rest centrally on the dissolution of the present government and anointing of the PTI in power or, failing that, a fresh election with some guarantees that it will be conducted in a fair and free manner and without the manipulation and other legerdemain employed for the Elections 2024. It is possible to see the shape of some of the future if PTI’s Sher Afzal Marwat’s announcement of another protest in Islamabad (and elsewhere?) on March 30, 2024 comes to fruition. As it is, the authorities have released prominent PTI leaders such as Latif Khosa and Salman Akram Raja but charged many workers for defying the imposition of section 144 just before March 10, 2024. This may portend an even harsher response to future protests. What this means is that the rules of the democratic game remain suspended except on the establishment-backed government’s terms, which naturally include acceptance of their (controversial) mandate.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The PTI’s game, on the other hand, seems to include continuing efforts for a rapprochement with the estranged establishment. One pointer to this continuing effort may be detected in outgoing president Dr Arif Alvi’s revelation that he had been, and continues to try for such a rapprochement, but regrettably without success so far. Perhaps Dr Alvi needs reminding that it takes two hands to clap, whereas the miffed establishment (because of the thrust of the May 9 ‘uprising’) is so far not interested in talking to the hitherto ‘insurgent’ PTI.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Meanwhile the system juggernaut continues in motion with the first phase of a 19-member federal cabinet being sworn in on March 11, 2024 in the aftermath of Asif Ali Zardari returning to the presidency. This cabinet assumes office on the verge of Ramzan. Surprise, surprise, Mohsin Naqvi’s stars are not confined to being anointed Pakistan Cricket Board Chairman immediately after he surrendered the caretaker CMship of Punjab (a trajectory that seems to be acquiring the permanence of a norm given the previous example of Najam Sethi), but also shine for him in terms of being inducted into the federal cabinet as proposed interior minister, a post he can hold for six months until he is elected to parliament, which opportunity beckons in the impending Senate elections. Now to ordinary sceptics there is no answer how or why this has transpired. What are Naqvi’s credentials for the post he is destined for? But then why quibble over qualification when now CM Balochistan Sarfraz Bugti was, until recently, caretaker federal interior minister? In both cases, the deft hand of the establishment seems inescapable. The only difference is that whereas Bugti had already won the affections of the establishment in the conflict with Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006 and after, which was instrumental in him being awarded the caretaker federal ministry, Mohsin Naqvi seems to have passed the establishment’s test as caretaker CM Punjab with flying colours. This conclusion is not as farfetched as it may seem at first glance, given the fact that both the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the PPP are at pains to deny Naqvi is their man. Now President Asif Ali Zardari, on the other hand, will have little hesitation in honouring Sarfraz Bugti with this title since, in an extraordinary sleight of hand, a caretaker interior minister resigned just days (literally) before the general elections 2024, stood for a Balochistan provincial seat in his home area of Dera Bugti, and was not only elected, but duly ensconced as CM Balochistan. There are some who question the constitutional and legal validity of this sleight of hand. Others feel constrained to remind us that the PPP inducted Sarfraz Bugti into its ranks immediately after he left the caretaker federal cabinet and Asif Ali Zardari even campaigned for him (albeit from a distance because of bad weather cancelling flights) in his provincial constituency at a triumphant election rally. Now the PPP can boast of heading not just the Sindh government, but that of troubled Balochistan too.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">It seems this may well be the last caretaker government Pakistan will see, as both the PML-N and the PPP seem determined in the light of all the objections that have been raised against the last such body, including overstaying its constitutional welcome to straying into areas that were not within its purview, to change this rule that has been in vogue since the 1977 abortive elections. Whether, however, a polarised polity such as Pakistan’s at present can agree how and what rules to replace the caretaker setup with, remains in the realm of the unknown so far.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-44625967158333112382024-03-08T06:09:00.000-08:002024-03-08T06:09:09.875-08:00Conference on Left candidates' experience in Elections 2024<p> The Research and Publication Centre (RPC) is holding a Conference on "Left candidates' experience in Elections 2024" on Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 3:00 pm at RPC, 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).</p><p>Speakers:</p><p>1. Muzammil Kakar, NA-127, Lahore.</p><p>2. Ammar Ali Jan, PP-160, Lahore.</p><p>3. Imtiaz Alam, NA-161, Bahawalnagar.</p><p>The Speakers will recount their election campaigns, voters' response, and lessons to be learnt for the future.</p><p>All friends are welcome. Tea will be served after the Conference.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook).</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-42176565886809217902024-03-05T04:40:00.000-08:002024-03-05T04:40:53.570-08:00Business Recorder Column March 5, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 24pt;">Challenges, challenges<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The shape of the post-election regime has been more or less settled, with the remaining Presidential election on March 9, 2024 too a foregone conclusion in favour of Asif Ali Zardari. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s (PML-N’s) Shahbaz Sharif has been elected Prime Minister (PM) by the National Assembly (NA), Maryam Nawaz Sharif the first woman Chief Minister (CM) Punjab by its provincial Assembly, Murad Shah of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) retaining the Sindh CM’s slot, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) Ali Amin Gandapur being elevated to the office of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s (KP’s) CM, and recently inducted into the PPP candidate Sarfraz Bugti as CM Balochistan. A perfectly fractured mandate if ever there was one. Therein of course lies many a problem. The Centre only has its own party’s government in Punjab. It will have to manage tricky Centre-province relations with Sindh, KP and Balochistan. Because the PPP, despite having declared it would not join the federal government, has committed to supporting the latter, this part of the equation may prove the least fractious. However, KP’s CM, well known as a militant member of PTI, may pose problems. Balochistan’s Sarfraz Bugti, despite questions being raised whether the Constitution allows a caretaker federal minister to resign on the eve of general elections and run for office, is clearly the establishment’s choice for controlling the troubled province. Since the present dispensation is widely viewed as having the blessings of the establishment, the likelihood is that Islamabad-Quetta will see a more or less smooth working relationship.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The proceedings of the last few days of the NA to conduct elections for the Speaker, Deputy Speaker and PM indicate the shape of things to come. The PTI, it appears, has decided to join the parliamentary system despite its shrill continuing denunciations of the rigged elections in order to continue its fight from within. That at least is the conclusion based on its behaviour in these sessions, which can be described as anything but parliamentary. Strictly speaking, the PML-N government led by Shahbaz Sharif will be a minority government critically dependent on the PPP’s votes to get any meaningful legislation through. This delicate pass will obviously face the PTI opposition’s unrelenting efforts to make such passage as difficult as possible for the incumbents. Unless handled with care, this scenario could easily, and in the not too distant future, suffer a meltdown, with the ensuing solutions producing forebodings given the looming shadow of the establishment managing things from behind the curtain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">These considerations assume even more importance given the enormous challenges facing the federal government. First and foremost of these is the state of the economy. As the crisis of the last few years has clearly exposed, industry’s import-intensive character feeds into our balance of payments deficit since industry cannot run smoothly and efficiently if the supply chain from abroad of critical plant and machinery, parts, raw materials (including quality cotton no longer available domestically because of the failure to address this and other agricultural declines), etc., is disrupted (in the recent case through restricting import Letters of Credit). Industry as at present (and for many years) constituted needs a policy of walking on two legs if it is to become viable, efficient and internationally competitive: investment in import substitution and exports. Agriculture’s neglect reflects the consequences of no land reforms (redistribution from the inefficient large landholdings to the poor peasantry, which would usher in intensive cultivation), concentration on research and development of quality seeds (especially cotton), and revisiting the negative consequences of a wholesale turn to sugarcane cultivation in the interests of the sugar mafia (which has the added consequence of exacerbating waterlogging and salinity). These are not one day goals. But if steps are taken in this direction, it would enable the country to satisfy not just the International Monetary Fund (IMF, and by extension, other multilateral and bilateral lenders and the international markets), but also have a salutary effect in nurturing confidence in our benefactors such as China and the Gulf States. Investment in the two-legged policy in industry and land redistribution and support to agriculture would boost employment and accelerate growth.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Apart from the economy and Centre-provinces’ coordination, the challenge of religious fundamentalist terrorism awaits a comprehensive coordinated civil-military plan to plug the unmet gaps in the National Action Plan and allow sharing of intelligence (if need be, at the highest level) in order to put the missing spokes in the wheel of the anti-terrorist campaign. Of late, the Afghan Taliban government is reported to have admonished its ‘guest’, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), not to conduct terrorist acts inside Pakistan. How serious this admonition is, or whether it is just for show, will be revealed very soon either in the shape of reduced TTP attacks inside Pakistan or…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Last but not least, Balochistan needs the healing touch of sincere negotiations with the nationalist insurgents, not the new CM Sarfraz Bugti’s thinly veiled ‘surrender’ invitation. Nationalist insurgency must be distinguished from terrorism. Political negotiations, offering solutions within the four corners of the Constitution and law that go some or all the way to meeting the long list of long standing grievances of the province, seem to offer the best hope of defusing a lingering sore, promising perhaps in the process, the way forward to meet PM Shahbaz Sharif’s stated preference to resolve the missing persons issue.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Hope still resides in the breast, but the forbidding difficulties and challenges would test the most resilient of regimes, let alone one still striving to have its democratic legitimacy accepted.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-66459390966466476392024-03-02T03:49:00.000-08:002024-03-02T03:49:30.297-08:00Conference on Left candidates' experience in Elections 2024<p>The Research and Publication Centre (RPC) is holding a Conference on "Left candidates' experience in Elections 2024" on Saturday, March 9, 2024 at 3:00 pm at RPC, 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).</p><p>Speakers:</p><p>1. Muzammil Kakar, NA-127, Lahore.</p><p>2. Ammar Ali Jan, PP-160, Lahore.</p><p>3. Imtiaz Alam, NA-161, Bahawalnagar.</p><p>The Speakers will recount their election campaigns, voters' response, and lessons to be learnt for the future.</p><p>All friends are welcome. Tea will be served after the Conference.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook).</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-85570286447047178962024-03-01T06:59:00.000-08:002024-03-01T06:59:28.430-08:00The March 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out<p>The March 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com</p><p>Contents:</p><p>1. Noaman G Ali and Shozab Raza: Worldly Marxism: Rethinking Revolution from Pakistan's Peripheries.</p><p>2. Taimur Rahman: How the IMF is squeezing Pakistan.</p><p>3. Dr Saulat Nagi: Palestine and Balochistan: "If you prick us, do we not bleed?"</p><p>4. Stacey Philbrick Yadav: The Houthis' 'Sovereign Solidarity' with Palestine.</p><p>5. Fayyaz Baqir: My life and struggle – I.</p><p>6. Chris Hedges: 'Silent coup': how capitalism defeated decolonisation.</p><p>7. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – VII.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook).</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-56207267031783705152024-02-27T00:21:00.000-08:002024-02-27T00:21:09.582-08:00Business Recorder Column February 27, 2024<p><b style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 24pt;">Lull before the storm?</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 24pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">One cannot really claim with confidence that the storm of dust kicked up by the controversies surrounding Elections 2024 has completely settled. However, there is perhaps an abatement of the shrillness attending the political discourse. The main reason for this relative calm, occasional outbursts in ‘traditional’ style notwithstanding, is the realisation by the beleaguered Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) that its rude, insulting, militant and aggressive style will not reap dividends in the post-elections scenario. This realisation seems to have sunk in despite their continuing complaints about the imprisonment of their leader Imran Khan as well as a host of other party leaders and cadres, as well as the denial of their claimed victory at the polls. How to explain this, for the PTI at least, ‘climbdown’? I would suggest that the fallout of the quixotic ‘insurrection’ of May 9, 2023 has induced this new-found wisdom. That direct assault on the prestige and repute of the military was founded on the absurd notion that such a minor assault when compared to what the military, and indeed militaries in general, are trained to face in warfare would cause a disintegration of discipline and unity of command in favour of the PTI. Of such absurdities are the roads to perdition for foolish notions paved. The ‘attack’ has, however, raised hackles in the high command about PTI sympathies amongst the officer corps, which has been, and according to some sources still is, being dealt with through a ‘purge’ of all such elements.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The counterattack by the military establishment on the PTI seems to have knocked a considerable amount of wind out of the party’s sails. On the backfoot ever since, the party has been forced to pragmatically weigh the situation and trim its tactics accordingly. The absurdity of the PTI does not end there, however. The foolish notion that a less than credible intra-party election would suffice was rudely punctured when the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) rejected and disqualified the intra-party election as not conforming to any set of known and accepted rules. This outcome was obviously beyond the arrogant notions of a PTI that is accustomed to seeing itself as a law-unto-itself. That unexpected shock resulted in the denial of the PTI’s prized election symbol ‘bat’ for the elections. The setback deprived the party of the emotional attachment of their followers to a symbol reflecting their leader’s cricketing hero status as well as arguably working against the mobilisation of the PTI’s electoral base amongst a largely illiterate electorate used to identifying its favourite party in any elections by the electoral symbol. An appeal against the ECP decision to the Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) failed to convince the apex court. Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa and the SCP came in for a lot of stick on this account on the PTI’s favoured social media, but to no avail. PTI candidates were forced to run as party-backed Independents. Despite all these unfavourable winds, the claimed (by the PTI) and officially accepted (by the ECP) vote surprised many. Nearly a hundred seats in the National Assembly (NA), a solid majority in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) provincial Assembly, not a bad result in Punjab was difficult to understand and explain, given the hostility of the powers-that-be towards the PTI. The only surmise that makes sense is that the ‘managers’ of the election process thought it prudent to reflect the widespread sympathy and support for the PTI under the cosh, to a certain extent in order to have the electoral outcome seem more genuine and acceptable. In the same process, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), supposedly the establishment’s new favourite, was cut to size by being denied a simple majority in the Centre, and subjected to a reduced majority in its stronghold Punjab. The former dictated the necessity to form a coalition government with most of the allies in the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government of 2022-2023, headed again by Shahbaz Sharif, elder brother Nawaz Sharif deciding to turn down a fourth stint as Prime Minister. The exception in the new coalition was the ‘dumping’ of Maulana Fazlur Rehman in his home constituency in D I Khan. It seems the Maulana’s days as an establishment favourite have already, or are in the process of, coming to an ignominious end. He seems to have outlived his long standing utility. In Punjab, dynastic politics’ continuing triumph was heralded by the anointing of Maryam Nawaz Sharif as the first female chief minister of Punjab. Hardly a ‘revolution’, one is constrained to comment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has played its cards well under the direction of its master tactician Asif Ali Zardari. Not only has the PPP held on to its stronghold Sindh, it has garnered the largest number of seats in Balochistan, a circumstance that allows it to lead the coalition government in the offing in that province but it may or may not succeed in pushing for its recently recruited candidate, Sarfraz Bugti. Despite a small number of seats in its once fortress Punjab, the PPP has successfully extracted its pound of flesh from the PML-N in the shape of Asif Ali Zardari once again returning to the Presidency, a possible gain of Speaker of the Senate and Deputy Speaker of the NA. So far, the PPP has not agreed to take ministries in the Centre but support what would then be a precarious minority PML-N government without actually joining the government. One explanation for this attitude could be holding out for more ripe plums for the taking. The other could be the PPP’s safeguarding itself from the fallout waiting down the road for the incoming government when it attempts to deal with the mountain of problems confronting the country, first of all the economy, followed in close order by security and others. If the incoming government led by the PML-N fails to tackle these problems, an outcome not beyond the imagination, the PPP can simply pick up its skirts to avoid the muck that will be the ground the PML-N could be swimming in.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">At the end, let us admit that despite all the hullabaloo about the results of the election, the declared results are being adhered to for government formation in the Centre and the provinces. PTI’s challenge may now be confined to parliament, the ECP or the courts, not so much the street. That does not preclude the desire of the PTI to attempt to destabilise the Central and Punjab governments, of which a trailer is Imran Khan’s letter to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) not to agree to a necessary long term programme with the incoming government without an audit of the election results. While domestically Imran Khan has been roundly denounced for the move, the IMF has maintained a diplomatic silence. The move does, however, reflect the by now well-known penchant of Imran Khan to put his own personal interests above everything else, even the country’s. Such egomania, which could be described as a ‘me or nothing’ attitude, requires little comment.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-61715339738913187212024-02-22T07:32:00.000-08:002024-02-22T07:32:59.457-08:00Pakistan India People's Forum for Peace and Democracy (PIPFPD) Conference "Current Economic Situation in Pakistan"<p>The Pakistan India People's Forum for Peace and Democracy (PIPFPD) is holding a Conference on the "Current Economic Situation in Pakistan" on Friday, February 23, 2024 at 3:00 pm at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).</p><p>Main Speakers:</p><p>Dr Qais Aslam.</p><p>Dr Taimur Rahman.</p><p>The Conference aims to delve into the pressing economic issues facing Pakistan today, exploring potential solutions and fostering dialogue among stakeholders. Special emphasis will be given to promote the agenda of peace between Pakistan and India through exploring economic openings and cooperation.</p><p>Tea will be served after the Conference. All are welcome.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-622378323039117692024-02-20T04:03:00.000-08:002024-02-20T04:03:09.778-08:00Business Recorder Column February 20, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;">An (in)credible election!<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 14pt;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The 2024 elections have aroused a perfect storm of allegations of gerrymandering, rigging and manipulation of results. Most people, including well informed commentators, seem at a loss though to offer a coherent, convincing explanation of this conundrum. This writer claims no special knowledge either, so the following arguments may appear convincing to some, in the realm of the speculative to others. These are the wages of venturing into unknown, slippery territory.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Let us examine a possible scenario to explain what the ‘plan’ for the 2024 elections may have been. The repression let loose against the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and its leaders, particularly Imran Khan, had already dented the credibility of the polls long before even a single ballot had been cast. How then to explain the PTI’s winning around 100 seats in the National Assembly (NA)? This irrespective of the fact that the party has been claiming it won more, and that some 80-85 seats were stolen from it. It should be kept in mind that the PTI was fighting the election with one hand tied behind its back, a consequence of being denied its electoral symbol of ‘bat’, a circumstance considered crucial amongst a largely illiterate voting populace that identifies its preferred party through such electoral symbols. However, a qualification can be made to this accepted wisdom by the fact that the PTI’s vote bank (and arguably its leadership) belongs to an urban elite and middle class demographic. The PTI candidates were all contesting as Independents, requiring either familiarity of the voters with them, or extraordinary campaign efforts to establish the identity of particular PTI-backed Independents. Since neither of these was visible, the only other logical explanation is that factors beyond the local, i.e. national, were the not-so-hidden persuaders. The vote for the PTI, controversies notwithstanding, suggests a turn against the well-established penchant of our establishment to bend its back in every electoral contest in living memory in favour of the ‘desired’ result. If it may be assumed, and there are sufficient arguments to bolster this assertion, that the ubiquitous establishment was determined not to let the PTI back into power, how is even the ‘conceded’ tally of 100 plus seats to be explained? In this scribbler’s humble opinion, this was an effort to overcome the perception beforehand that we were heading into an unfair, unfree election. The tally of 100 seats was meant to bolster the credentials of an (in)credible election as free and fair. The fact that it does not appear to have succeeded, given the almost universal uproar from all quarters about the legitimacy of the polls, has less to do with the intentions of the authors of the plan and more to do with their failure to correctly judge the mood prevailing in the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">While the gambit of conceding 100 plus seats to the PTI may have failed, the other half of the plan is also interesting. Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) was left dangling short of even a simple majority, forcing it to seek a coalition alliance with the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and other smaller parties to cobble together sufficient numbers in the NA to form a government. This has afforded the PPP the opening to exact more than its pound of flesh. Not only is it mooting Asif Ali Zardari to return as President, it also wants the post of Speaker, preferably of the NA, ministries in the Punjab government to be led by Maryam Nawaz Sharif as Chief Minister (CM), a PPP-led coalition government in Balochistan (led by worthy Sarfraz Bugti, a lately embraced ‘member’) and, of course, its government in Sindh, where it enjoys as usual a more than comfortable majority.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Nawaz Sharif has revealed his discomfort at heading such a disparate, weak coalition government in the Centre. He has therefore ‘sacrificed’ his desire to return as Prime Minister (PM) for the fourth time, preferring instead to dump the vale of woes the office is likely to prove in the lap of brother Shahbaz Sharif. This absolves Nawaz Sharif of any responsibility of the possible failure of the government to deal with the veritable mountain of problems the regime is bound to face, central to which is the state of the economy and the expected ‘blessings’ of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to squeeze the already labouring life of the people out of their wretched bodies and more and more wretched existence. Moving Shahbaz Sharif back into the PM’s chair also serves the purpose of clearing the path for the entry into high office of Maryam Nawaz Sharif, following in the footsteps of the trajectory of her father’s political career. The whole show, however, whether in the Centre or Punjab, will be run benignly by Nawaz Sharif behind the screen, a novel experience for a country not short of novel experiences in its past.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Whoever the masterminds of the ‘plan’ for elections 2024 were, they could either be reduced to navel-gazing in embarrassment at the outcome, or rubbing their hands with glee at its success. The first could be induced by the universal rejection of the elections and their unbelievable results (with the prospective ruling coalition embarrassedly making efforts to defend it but succeeding only in confirming public perception of their lately-found role as establishment satraps). The second is more ominous, suggesting as it does the deliberate introduction of political instability as a handle to manipulate things from behind the curtain in favour of whatever the establishment’s goals may be and away from a credible democratic system, something the country has been yearning for but denied since its birth. In either case, a bigger crisis awaits just down the road, whose outline is reasonably clear, but whose consequences remain so far in the realm of the conjectural.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-14271360230840038852024-02-16T03:52:00.000-08:002024-02-16T03:52:56.187-08:00PIPFPD Conference on "Current Economic Situation in Pakistan" at RPC <p>The Pakistan India People's Forum for Peace and Democracy (PIPFPD) is holding a Conference on the "Current Economic Situation in Pakistan" on Friday, February 23, 2024 at 3:00 pm at the Research and Publication Centre (RPC), 2nd floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom).</p><p>Main Speakers:</p><p>Dr Qais Aslam.</p><p>Dr Taimur Rahman.</p><p>The Conference aims to delve into the pressing economic issues facing Pakistan today, exploring potential solutions and fostering dialogue among stakeholders. Special emphasis will be given to promote the agenda of peace between Pakistan and India through exploring economic openings and cooperation.</p><p>Tea will be served after the Conference. All are welcome.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-84550115254768674152024-02-06T03:38:00.000-08:002024-02-06T03:38:53.087-08:00Business Recorder Column February 6, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">One, two, three knockout punch<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">By the time these lines appear in print, the elections will be just two days away. However, what has emerged as one of the most lacklustre election campaigns in our chequered history, not the least because in public perception perhaps, the result is a foregone conclusion, any remaining doubts on this score can comfortably be laid to rest by the events of the last week or so. In quick succession, and in an unimaginable judicial hurry, a one, two, three knockout punch has been administered to Imran Khan. In the process, collateral damage of a similar kind has also been inflicted on Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Bushra Bibi. I refer of course to the three cases in which, respectively, Imran Khan and Shah Mahmood Qureshi were handed down jail sentences of 10 years and disqualification from participating in elections or holding public office each in the cipher case, the former premier and his wife were sentenced to 14 years imprisonment and a fine of Rs 0.5 million each in the <i>Toshakhana</i> case, and, in a first in our tainted judicial history, the couple were accorded seven years jail in the <i>Iddat</i> case. If all this is not enough to take your breath away, you are a better man than I, Gunga Din. The incredibly hurried (and therefore one-sided) proceedings in all these cases are a cause for shame even to our by now hardened hearts at judicial malfeasance. Experts and the Women’s Action Forum (WAF) amongst others have condemned this intrusion into personal marriage law.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Be all that as it may, the purpose behind all these courtroom (inside Adiala Jail) shenanigans is obvious. It is intended, on the very eve of the elections and within a hair’s breadth of the polls to deliver a decisive blow to the political functioning and electoral participation of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI). Although the party may be able to nevertheless mobilise its vote bank on February 8, 2024, reports of two instances of faults in the Election Management System (EMS) have raised hackles regarding the possibility of a rerun of the 2018 vote count in reverse to deny the PTI its place in the sun. The powers-that-be may be congratulating themselves on this ‘coup’ and complacent about knocking the PTI out of the electoral fray at the ballot box and, if even that fails, leaving the possibility of recourse to EMS manipulation as the fallback position, but all these manoeuvres are likely to achieve is a rise in sympathy for, and the popularity of, Imran Khan. That may well do him and his party not much good in the elections, but in the ensuing dawn after the polls…?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The apathy on display at the popular level regarding the elections may yield a low turnout. Those that do make the effort to cast their vote may be hoping against hope that the PTI’s electoral strength will be recognised and accepted on the one hand, and those who vote for the other parties in the hope of redress of their problems and difficulties on the other. However, both are likely to be disappointed, the former quicker, the latter with the passage of time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Why such pessimism, you may ask? Because if one is not purblind or wearing blinkers, it should be obvious to even the meanest intelligence that it is the establishment that is calling the shots and no one else, certainly not the electorate. But the establishment, as the track record shows, is only able to play its dominant role thanks to the by now firmly entrenched willingness of the political class as a whole to act as collaborators with the anti-democratic plans of the establishment, in the hope of crumbs from its table. Of course what the political class loses sight of again and again is the inherent contradiction at the heart of all such efforts. That contradiction is squarely located in the conundrum that even the most willing collaborator, once ensconced in high office, demands power, not merely office, since this is the necessary condition for delivery. If such demands intrude onto the hallowed space occupied since long by our ubiquitous establishment, including foreign and security policies, the result is a quick shuttle to the revolving door of both entry and exit from office. The irony in all this of course is that the collaborator of yesterday is overnight turned into the ‘enemy’ today, while the ‘enemy’ till yesterday is shown the paved path to the hallowed halls of power.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">This repeated (by now ad nauseam) exercise has produced a so far silent state crisis that may well explode in our faces sooner or later. Essentially, all these manipulative manoeuvres of the establishment have contributed principally to the fraying if not disintegration and future collapse of state institutions and their credibility. Hardly any state institution is unaffected by these unwise moves in the interest of maintaining the hold of the establishment, whether it be the judiciary, bureaucracy and, if one may say it without fear of retaliation, the military. Until and unless the establishment, with the military at its heart, lets go of its malign grip on the political process in the interests, at a minimum, of a credible, genuine parliamentary democracy in which the vote of the citizen is the only deciding factor, Pakistan’s future is, to say the least, gloomy beyond description.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-44571741330713586052024-02-02T04:30:00.000-08:002024-02-02T04:32:30.437-08:00The February 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out<div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">The February 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Contents:</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">1. Rafi Pervaiz Bhatti: The Muslim Identity in India – III: The origin of the Establishment and decay of the Pakistan Movement.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">2. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – VI.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">3. Dr Farooq Bajwa: Book Review: Professor Tariq Rahman: <i>Pakistan’s Wars: An Alternative History.</i></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">4. Dr Maqsudul Hasan Nuri: Coping with Populism: some policy guidelines.</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">5. Jehangir Ashraf Qazi: Pakistan <i>Paindabad</i>?</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;"><br /></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Rashed Rahman</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;">Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</div><p><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-28943901053564618012024-01-30T04:45:00.000-08:002024-01-30T04:45:21.809-08:00Business Recorder Column January 30, 2024<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Elections and prospects</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">As the date for general elections, February 8, 2024, looms, the election campaign scene exhibits some troubling tendencies. First and foremost, the lack of the traditional excitement and activity by the contending political parties is conspicuous by its absence. This malaise appears to have affected not only those vying for electoral success, but even those expected to elect them by casting their vote on the day. This apathy could be ascribed to a number of causes, but two or three appear to stand out. The political parties in the field can be neatly divided between those ‘acceptable’ to the present power structure, and one party in particular that is not. The ‘acceptable’ parties are all those that were part of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition government constituted after the ouster of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government through a no-confidence motion in 2022. To these could be added parties such as the Jamaat-i-Islami and the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, and a few minor contenders on the margins. The ‘pariah’ party in this polarised political environment is only the PTI. If it can be assumed then that the result of the election is a foregone conclusion, what does this say about the legitimacy of the regime to follow, and what effect will it have on its ability to tackle the imposing mountain of troubles the country faces, first and foremost the economic meltdown?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">As described by one analyst, the journey of the PTI since its formation in 1996 may be described as one “from partner to pariah”. This is a fairly accurate description of the process whereby the PTI was belatedly ‘picked up’ by the establishment despite it being ignored by General Pervez Musharraf after the 2002 elections held by him, which have joined the growing list of elections in our history either answering to the description ‘manipulated’ (most of them) or whose results were ignored (1970, perhaps the fairest and freest of them all, the brushing aside of whose results by Yahya Khan’s military regime led to the loss of half the country, East Pakistan). Imran Khan expected to be made prime minister (PM) by Musharraf despite winning a sole seat. Musharraf’s refusal to contemplate the same in favour instead of adorning his new King’s Party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) of the Gujrat Chaudries with the crown, proved too bitter a pill for Imran Khan to swallow and at the same time betrayed his egotistical belief that he deserved the coveted prize irrespective of the rules governing the formation of governments that enjoy a parliamentary majority (whether genuine or not). That changed after the establishment (post-Musharraf) decided the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government led by Asif Zardari after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination in 2007 and the returned-from-exile Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) were too ‘chummy’ despite their early falling out and PML-N going into opposition because in the background lurked the Charter of Democracy signed by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in exile in London in 2006, in which they committed to forego playing the role of the establishment’s plaything against each other, which had been characteristic of the 1990s. A government and government-in-waiting (the opposition) united in resisting manipulation against each other was too much for the establishment to stomach. Hence came the change of heart and preferred satrap in 2011 when the PTI burst upon the scene through its rally at Minar-i-Pakistan, Lahore, aided, abetted, mentored and allegedly secured by then ISI chief General Pasha.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">This change in the PTI’s fortunes fed into the disqualification of incumbent PM Nawaz Sharif in 2017 and the allegedly manipulated result in favour of the PTI in the 2018 general elections that followed. Much to the horror and disappointment of his mentors and supporters in the military establishment, Imran Khan proved hopeless as a PM, failing to produce a single success in the exaggerated programme of development he had announced, and only keeping his government afloat (at the cost of the country) by borrowing in his four and a quarter years’ incumbency 71 percent of all the loans Pakistan had incurred from 1947 to 2018. It is no accident then that the PDM government that followed his ouster was hamstrung by the threat of the country defaulting on its ballooning debt burden.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Having lost the confidence and support of the military establishment that had brought him to power, Imran Khan foolishly believed that he had such overwhelming support within the military that a confident ‘strike’ would produce a mutiny against the successors of COAS Genera Bajwa (his main supporter), i.e. the top command under General Asim Munir. Nothing else explains the adventure of May 9 when military installations and monuments were attacked and mutilated by the PTI’s leaders and workers. What Imran Khan failed to appreciate was the discipline and unity of command of the military, which was intact. In the aftermath of the May 9 chaos, those in the upper echelons of the military suspected of sympathy for the PTI were summarily purged, a stampede of PTI leaders of all shapes, sizes and hues were seen recanting on television, and those who refused are to this day being given the run around of cases after cases at which our establishment has proved throughout our history to be extraordinarily adept.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now, when Imran Khan is in jail and until recently was unable to communicate with his party people, we hear of ‘election’ rallies all over the country by the PTI workers, ostensibly on the call of Imran Khan. If true, this suggests Imran and the PTI have found a way around the wall of silence erected around him since his arrest. Be that as it may, the attempt was met with the usual tender ministrations of the police, resulting in injuries, arrests and justificatory statements of all kinds from the police and authorities why the baton, water cannon, arrests, etc, were unleashed against the PTI. Unfortunately, our establishment has proved incapable of learning anything from the past. It is arguable that such repressive tactics merely increase sympathy and support for the perceived underdog, and in our political culture, where the people are still searching for a way out of the quagmire of inflation and unemployment in which they have been trapped for decades and into which they slip further and further day by day, sentiment veers towards support for the victim/s of the establishment, whether deserved or not.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">If further proof of this argument is needed, we may glance at the reception Dr Mahrang Baloch and her Baloch Yakjehti Committee have garnered in a massive rally in Quetta after their return from the long march from Turbat to Islamabad in support of their missing persons. One look at the proceedings of that rally and the speech by Dr Mahrang Baloch should clinch the argument that repression beyond reason begets the opposite effect of what was intended.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-87294321803108505732024-01-23T02:00:00.000-08:002024-01-23T02:00:00.579-08:00Business Recorder Column January 23, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Back from the brink<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">After an exchange of missile attacks on alleged Baloch subversive elements in each other’s territory, Pakistan and Iran have been quietly rowing back from the brink of a breakdown in the longstanding friendly relations between the two neighbouring countries. Although both Islamabad and Tehran have longstanding complaints against each other about Baloch militants fighting their respective governments in both countries enjoying safe havens across their mutual border, Iran’s decision to strike an alleged Jaish al-Adl presence in Panjgur district in Pakistani Balochistan bordering Iran’s Seistan Baluchistan province took most observers by surprise. Not the least amongst these was Pakistan’s military and security establishment. Although few have raised the issue in Pakistan, questions do arise about a possible vulnerability to surprise aerial attacks on Pakistan. An accompanying worry must be possible holes in the country’s air defence system. Pakistan’s military felt compelled to retaliate for the unprovoked attack so as to send a message not only to Iran, but to all its neighbours with whom it has problems that any infringement of Pakistan’s aerial or territorial integrity would be responded to in equal measure. Although Pakistan has a troubled relationship with Afghanistan over the presence of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) elements carrying out terrorist attacks in Pakistan from Afghan soil, the real message was intended for India that any notion of such adventurism should not even be considered. It goes without saying that Pakistan-India confrontations are highly dangerous because of the nuclear weapons factor.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Given the longstanding good relations between Pakistan and Iran despite the latter being on the US-led west’s hostile radar since the 1979 revolution, why Tehran chose to include Pakistan in its list of targets (the other two, just before, being Syria and Iraq) for such attacks begs an explanation. Jaish al-Adl is a Sunni Islamist Baloch militant group seeking greater rights for Seistan Baluchistan if not separation. It has been carrying out attacks against Iranian military and security forces targets in that province for over a decade, allegedly from bases in Pakistani Balochistan. On December 15, 2023, it conducted an attack on a police station in Rask killing 11 police officers. On January 17, 2024, just a day after Iran’s missile attack on Pakistan, Jaish al-Adl claimed it had assassinated three Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Although Iran claimed it had struck a Jaish al-Adl ‘base’ in Pakistan, Pakistan’s foreign ministry said the dead included two children, while wounding three girls. As a comparison, Pakistan’s retaliatory strike on alleged Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) ‘bases’ in Iran yielded amongst the dead three women, four children and two men. The casualty list suggests the targets were families on either side. It could of course be assumed that the Baloch militants in both cases had their families living with them, but it does undercut Pakistan’s claim that it struck these targets because it had information of an impending ‘big terrorist’ action by the BLA and BLF. In passing, it is not irrelevant to mention that although (since 9/11) all armed groups challenging state authority in any part of the world have been dumped in the basket of ‘terrorism’, this catch-all usage obliterates the distinction between terrorism and nationalist (and revolutionary) insurgencies.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The fact of the matter is that Iran struck out at a claimed Islamic State (IS) target in Syria and an Israeli secret service Mossad centre in Iraq in retaliation for the assassinations of its top IRGC commanders and the horrendous bomb attack in Kerman, Iran, at the commemoration of General Suleimani’s assassination. To that extent Tehran’s actions betray some logic, since the exchanges of assassinations and missile attacks are part of the spreading regional conflict sparked by the Gaza war. But bracketing the attack on Pakistan with these retaliatory actions defies logic. Particularly since after Pakistan’s measured response, both sides decided to come together to diplomatically defuse the crisis. Iran, besieged by the US-led west and Israel’s hostility, needs all the friends it can get in the region and beyond. It makes little sense therefore to attack Pakistan in the same breath as Syria and Iraq, neither of which are capable at present of retaliating. But to launch against friendly, nuclear-armed Pakistan defies sense, unless it can be put down to a rush of blood by the IRGC. Be that as it may, it seems irrefutable that Tehran’s concerns about Jaish al-Adl would have been (as they now, post facto, are) better addressed through diplomacy than missile fire.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">While one welcomes the turn from potential hostility to the traditional friendly ties between Pakistan and Iran after the kerfuffle of missile exchanges, one cannot but be both bewildered and amused in equal measure at the extremes of bending over backwards to justify his deserved elevation of our Balochistan’s caretaker Information Minister Jan Achakzai, which is leading one to fear for the health of his spine. Achakzai has earlier been railing against the families of missing persons, led by women, holding a sit-in before the National Press Club, Islamabad after marching all the way from Balochistan. Now he has enlightened us (further) regarding the ‘nexus’ between the missing persons protestors and those killed by Pakistani missiles in Iran. The thrust of his new truth is that those killed are claimed by the protestors as ‘missing’, thereby demonstrating that the whole myth of missing persons is nothing but a conspiracy to malign Pakistan, blah, blah, blah…<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Sometimes, in our benighted land, it is moments like this that one is left wondering whether to laugh or to cry.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-43097176369712245042024-01-09T05:56:00.000-08:002024-01-09T05:56:53.514-08:00Business Recorder Column January 9, 2024<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Balochistan: engagement or suppression?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The rough treatment meted out to peaceful families of Baloch missing persons by the Islamabad police has placed this and all the related issues regarding Balochistan centre-stage (once again), not the least because Pakistanis have woken up and responded to the role of women in these protests. By and large, Balochistan has been viewed as a backward tribal society. But this ‘frozen’ perception is clearly out of date. Education has spread throughout Balochistan in recent decades, contributing to the emergence of a significant middle class. The women, young and old, who have led the march from Turbat to Islamabad against the custodial killing of a young man, on the one hand would be considered the natural takers up of the issue of their missing loved ones (men only), but on the other may come as a surprise to those in Pakistan still mired in the traditional view of Balochistan as a backward, undeveloped part of the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">It is doubly unfortunate that first the caretaker government’s committee set up to deal with the arrests and rough treatment of the peaceful protestors obfuscated the whole issue to let the Islamabad administration and police off the hook. Then caretaker Prime Minister (PM) Anwaarul Haq Kakar whaled in with his two cents worth, part of which he repeated in a TV interview on January 7, 2024. If the Islamabad police inflicted wounds on the bodies of the peaceful protestors, not sparing even women or the elderly, the committee sprinkled the first batch of salt on those wounds, and whatever was left was delivered by the caretaker PM’s broadside. While arguing that the state could not tolerate armed rebellion, he failed to put the issue in any kind of context or perspective. The fact is that Balochistan has been restive ever since Pakistan came into being, first over the issue of accession to the new state versus the possibility of independence, later over the deprivation of the rights of the people of Balochistan, whether on the touchstone of control over and benefit from their natural resources or other democratic rights that have been conspicuous by their absence from day one. No people takes to armed struggle lightly or without reason. Kakar is either ignorant of the fact or has deliberately omitted any mention of the 25 years that separate the end of the fourth nationalist insurgency in Balochistan (1977) and the beginning of the fifth (2002). When he speaks fondly of Mir Ghaus Buksh Bizenjo as a close family friend, perhaps he should also have reflected on and voiced the fact that the Baloch people, when their armed struggle against Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (1973-77) imploded in the aftermath of his overthrow by General Ziaul Haq, bought into Bizenjo’s line of adhering to peaceful parliamentary politics in the struggle for their long denied rights. It is only when 25 years of this political path failed to move things even an inch that a new generation of Baloch youth took to the mountains once again to seek justice through the barrel of a gun when it was not available through any other means. The state during these 25 years continued playing its traditional games in denying the Baloch democratic representation, and through it, at least theoretically, their denied rights and redressal of their mounting grievances. I am not listing these in detail since they are well known, starting from the accession issue in 1947-48 to Sui gas being plundered to fuel the rest of the country’s development since 1952 without any meaningful share or compensation to the Baloch to the copper-gold treasure flowing to foreign companies without changing the lives of the locals where these mines are located or, indeed, Balochistan as a whole.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">This history, when appended to the practice of enforced disappearances and extra-judicial killings of young Baloch men suspected of being sympathetic to the fifth nationalist insurgency, has added more fuel to the fire of indignation burning brighter and fiercer than ever against the state’s blatant, long standing practices of brutal suppression. This indignation is now spreading beyond the expected protest in Quetta to other parts of Pakistan and even abroad. A missing person’s case attracted such a protest rally in London on January 7, 2024. When Kakar or any other representative of the state argues in favour of adherence to the law by even aggrieved people, why does he fail to extend that same principle even more forcefully to the approach and practices of the state’s institutions themselves? Are they above the law? A law unto themselves? Not answerable to anyone or any forum for their blatant breach of what our laws and Constitution lay down? If anything, in the case of Balochistan, all the state has ever done is failed to engage the alienated Baloch in a dialogue about their grievances, failed to redress these grievances, and relied wholly on force to suppress even their genuine, acceptable demands within the parameters of our Constitution and laws. Why then should we be surprised that each succeeding generation of the Baloch since 1947 has seen no way forward except to pick up the gun to fight for their rights?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Mr Kakar claims 90,000 innocent people have been killed in Balochistan. But he fails to indicate over what period, who these 90,000 victims are, who killed them and why. In the absence of any factual basis to the claim, Mr Kakar may forgive us our scepticism. Quoting this figure smacks more of a propaganda gambit than a verifiable fact. He also makes the incredible claim that there is no law to punish terrorists in Pakistan, citing the ‘fact’ that despite the loss of 90,000 lives, not even nine people have been convicted for such crimes. Perhaps he should have added that they might have been had they been presented in a court of law, not forcibly disappeared or extra-judicially killed. Are they too part of this 90,000 figure?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Caretaker PM Kakar owes his rise to services rendered to our establishment, first by creating the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and then having the satisfaction of seeing it crowned (by hook or by crook) as the Balochistan provincial government. But perhaps his elevation as caretaker PM promises to be his last hurrah. Unless Mr Kakar can pull one more rabbit out of his overflowing hat full of tricks.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-15515964327497377682024-01-06T07:53:00.000-08:002024-01-06T07:53:16.968-08:00The January 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out<p>The January 2024 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com</p><p>Contents:</p><p>1. Chris Hedges: The Death of Israel.</p><p>2. Saeed A Malik: The Genesis of Gaza Genocide.</p><p>3. Akbar Notezai: The curious case of the Sanjranis: How they benefited from the massive copper-gold Saindak mine project.</p><p>4. Charles Amjad-Ali: Anti-semitism: A hypocritical epithet to cover Israel's Apartheid – V.</p><p>5. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – V.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook) </p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-91648048264614059132024-01-02T05:15:00.000-08:002024-01-02T05:15:18.913-08:00Business Recorder Column January 2, 2024<p>As written by me:</p><p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Crises old and new</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">It is hardly breaking news on the first day of the new (not so happy) year that Pakistan faces a slate of challenges if not crises that seem destined to test the sinews of even the strongest Hercules. Of these challenges and possible crises, some are old, some recently inherited, others wholly new and hitherto unknown. Of the old crises, and at the risk of annoying our learned economists, it’s the economy (stupid!). If its travails can be summed up briefly, one may point to the process of deindustrialisation (contributed to majorly by the new shibboleth of privatisation as the solution to all our woes) underway for some 50 years now. Remaining industry is unable to export enough to sustain our critical import dependence stemming from the model of economic development we have been blindly trumpeting and following for decades. Hence the inevitable resort to dusting off our permanent begging bowl. However, since our ‘strategic’ importance to the US-led west has declined considerably (communism now being seen as all but routed worldwide), we can no longer expect, let alone rely on, our habitual ‘free lunch’. Our Gulf patrons are by now weary of our perpetual begging for handouts and bailouts. China has put economics in command (a profound reversal of Mao’s ‘politics in command’) and weighs support even to its most precious ally in the scales of capitalist profit and loss. We are therefore confronted with the uncomfortable necessity of getting off our knees (old habits die hard) and learning to stand upright on our own feet in a radically transformed and rapidly further transforming world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">In the absence of industrial development, the military-led SIFC is hoping to spark a new ‘green revolution’ in agriculture as the (continuing) base of our food security, raw material for industry, and perhaps export potential. All this is hoped for under the corporate umbrella of the military. It remains to be seen, however, whether the changed conditions if not crisis in agriculture is amenable to the attempt to reproduce a green revolution that was relevant and useful in the 1960s, but may or may not be the answer to the farming landscape today. Without being able in the present space to develop this argument fully, suffice it to say that without land reform and redistribution from the lax, inefficient large landholders to the poor and landless peasants who can then be expected to fulfil the need for intensive cultivation and contribute substantially to the rescue of the country’s economy, the hopes from military-led corporate farming may or may not yield the expected fruit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Terrorism once again assails our lives as another of the old (at least 50 years again) crises engendered by our romance and flirtation with religious extremist proxies, first in the context of Afghanistan, later in the context of Kashmir, who, as proxies are wont to do, eventually freed themselves of the leash and turned on their former mentors and supporters (Israel’s similar experience with Hamas in an attempt to weaken the PLO is a striking contemporary clincher for this argument). Two analytical reports (those of the CRSS and PICSS) inform us that terrorist attacks are at a six-year high, with violence up 56 percent and attacks up 69 percent in 2023 alone. In 789 attacks and counter-terrorism operations last year, 1,542 people were killed, 1,463 wounded. The distribution of such attacks is also interesting, though not entirely unexpected. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan suffered 90 percent of the deaths and 84 percent of the terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations. Punjab and Sindh together suffered only eight percent of the deaths. In addition, sectarian violence killed 203 people, including 88 security personnel. These are the fruits of our unthinking creation and bolstering of fanatical religious forces and groups under the delusion that they would always remain faithful to their benefactors. It is the nature of jihadist thought that has cancelled all such hopes and produced another round of terrorism since the 2021 takeover in Afghanistan by the Taliban and their seeming free hand to groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate freely and at will from Afghan soil to attack Pakistan and its people. One of the major strategic blunders of the military operations against these terrorists in the tribal areas was the illusion that simply driving them out of Pakistan (into Afghanistan) would be the end of the matter. The crushing of these forces and ensuring no chance of their resurrection depended heavily on a pincer movement to cut off their escape routes across the border into Afghanistan. Instead, the military operations only succeeded in ‘exporting’ the problem, leaving open thereby the possibility that, helped by what appeared to be the inevitability of the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan, and with help from the sleeper cells the TTP left behind in Pakistan, the hydra of terrorism would once again raise its head/s.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The juncture Pakistan is at is not very hopeful. If some naïve people believed that elections would somehow provide the wherewithal to lift us out of the morass the country and our people are trapped in, by now even the most generous amongst them must be having second thoughts. There has emerged a pandemic of rejection of the nomination papers of aspirants to run in the general elections scheduled for February 8, 2024. Out of 25,951 applicants, the Returning Officers (ROs) recruited from the bureaucracy have accepted 22,711 (6,449 for the National Assembly, 16,262 for the provincial Assemblies). The aspiring candidates rejected number 3,240 (1,024 National Assembly, 2,216 provincial Assemblies). Lest you are comforted by the thought that the overwhelming majority of aspirants have been accepted, we need to delve a little deeper into these numbers. The overwhelming majority of the rejected belong to the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and include not only Imran Khan, but almost all the remaining leading figures left in the party after the tsunami of desertions following May 9, 2023. PTI’s favourite ally Shaikh Rashid is amongst the rejected. But the rejection pandemic does not stop there. Included are worthies such as Akhtar Mengal of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M). No doubt such shenanigans will serve as salve for the festering wounds of the Baloch, whose women and youth have recently tasted the wrath of our wonderful police in Islamabad, a force unable to distinguish between peaceful protestors and the other type. The rejected applicants have till January 3, 2024 to challenge their rejection, which must be decided by January 10, 2024. Given the large number of such cases, time is tight and the outcome uncertain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">If the general elections are perceived to have been held, as the PTI is alleging, on the basis of ‘pre-poll rigging’ (as opposed to our time tested post-poll rigging), it will lead to an absence of stability and quite possibly a major crisis of legitimacy down the road. If the present trend of reducing the elections to a farce continues, the state will then in its aftermath once again confront the lesson of our and the world’s history that state excesses are unable to dent the popularity of political parties and may even end up inadvertently enhancing it. If the current funereal mood in the country (reflecting a lack of hope of better things) continues in the presence of doubts about the legitimacy of the polls, turnout may well be low. And when the new dispensation, besmirched by the taint of being helped into power by the powers-that-be, takes office, its other problems of management of the country’s problems may well pale in comparison with the possible political fallout of what appears increasingly like gerrymandering. Ah, the wisdom of our real rulers!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</span></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">As published by the paper:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Crises old and new<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">It is hardly breaking news on the first day of the new (not so happy) year that Pakistan faces a slate of challenges if not crises that seem destined to test the sinews of even the strongest Hercules. Of these challenges and possible crises, some are old, some recently inherited, others wholly new and hitherto unknown. Of the old crises, and at the risk of annoying our learned economists, it’s the economy (stupid!). If its travails can be summed up briefly, one may point to the process of deindustrialisation (contributed to majorly by the new shibboleth of privatisation as the solution to all our woes) underway for some 50 years now. Remaining industry is unable to export enough to sustain our critical import dependence stemming from the model of economic development we have been blindly trumpeting and following for decades. Hence the inevitable resort to dusting off our permanent begging bowl. However, since our ‘strategic’ importance to the US-led west has declined considerably (communism now being seen as all but routed worldwide), we can no longer expect, let alone rely on, our habitual ‘free lunch’. Our Gulf patrons are by now weary of our perpetual begging for handouts and bailouts. China has put economics in command (a profound reversal of Mao’s ‘politics in command’) and weighs support even to its most precious ally in the scales of capitalist profit and loss. We are therefore confronted with the uncomfortable necessity of getting off our knees (old habits die hard) and learning to stand upright on our own feet in a radically transformed and rapidly further-transforming world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">In the absence of industrial development, the military-led SIFC (special investment facilitation council) is hoping to spark a new ‘green revolution’ in agriculture as the (continuing) base of our food security, raw material for industry, and perhaps export potential. All this is hoped for under the corporate umbrella of the military. It remains to be seen, however, whether the changed conditions if not crisis in agriculture is amenable to the attempt to reproduce a green revolution that was relevant and useful in the 1960s, but may or may not be the answer to the farming landscape today. Without being able in the present space to develop this argument fully, suffice it to say that without land reform and redistribution from the lax, inefficient large landholders to the poor and landless peasants who can then be expected to fulfil the need for intensive cultivation and contribute substantially to the rescue of the country’s economy, the hopes from military-led corporate farming may or may not yield the expected fruit.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Terrorism once again assails our lives as another of the old (at least 50 years again) crises engendered by our romance and flirtation with religious extremist proxies, first in the context of Afghanistan, later in the context of Kashmir, who, as proxies are wont to do, eventually freed themselves of the leash and turned on their former mentors and supporters (Israel’s similar experience with Hamas in an attempt to weaken the PLO is a striking contemporary clincher for this argument). Two analytical reports (those of the CRSS and PICSS) inform us that terrorist attacks are at a six-year high, with violence up 56 percent and attacks up 69 percent in 2023 alone. In 789 attacks and counter-terrorism operations last year, 1,542 people were killed, 1,463 wounded. The distribution of such attacks is also interesting, though not entirely unexpected. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan suffered 90 percent of the deaths and 84 percent of the terrorist attacks and counter-terrorism operations. Punjab and Sindh together suffered only eight percent of the deaths. In addition, sectarian violence killed 203 people, including 88 security personnel. These are the fruits of our unthinking creation and bolstering of fanatical religious forces and groups under the delusion that they would always remain faithful to their benefactors. It is the nature of jihadist thought that has cancelled all such hopes and produced another round of terrorism since the 2021 takeover in Afghanistan by the Taliban and their seeming free hand to groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to operate freely and at will from Afghan soil to attack Pakistan and its people. One of the major strategic blunders of the military operations against these terrorists in the tribal areas was the illusion that simply driving them out of Pakistan (into Afghanistan) would be the end of the matter. The crushing of these forces and ensuring no chance of their resurrection depended heavily on a pincer movement to cut off their escape routes across the border into Afghanistan. Instead, the military operations only succeeded in ‘exporting’ the problem, leaving open thereby the possibility that, helped by what appeared to be the inevitability of the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan, and with help from the sleeper cells the TTP left behind in Pakistan, the hydra of terrorism would once again raise its head/s.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The juncture Pakistan is at is not very hopeful. If some naïve people believed that elections would somehow provide the wherewithal to lift us out of the morass the country and our people are trapped in, by now even the most generous amongst them must be having second thoughts. There has emerged a pandemic of rejection of the nomination papers of aspirants to run in the general elections scheduled for February 8, 2024. Out of 25,951 applicants, the Returning Officers (ROs) recruited from the bureaucracy have accepted 22,711 (6,449 for the National Assembly, 16,262 for the provincial Assemblies). The aspiring candidates rejected number 3,240 (1,024 National Assembly, 2,216 provincial Assemblies). Lest you are comforted by the thought that the overwhelming majority of aspirants have been accepted, we need to delve a little deeper into these numbers. The overwhelming majority of the rejected belong to the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and include not only Imran Khan, but almost all the remaining leading figures left in the party after the tsunami of desertions following May 9, 2023. PTI’s favourite ally Shaikh Rashid is amongst the rejected. But the rejection pandemic does not stop there. Included are worthies such as Akhtar Mengal of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M). No doubt such shenanigans will serve as salve for the festering wounds of the Baloch, whose women and youth have recently tasted the wrath of our wonderful police in Islamabad, a force unable to distinguish between peaceful protestors and the other type. The rejected applicants have till January 3, 2024 to challenge their rejection, which must be decided by January 10, 2024. Given the large number of such cases, time is tight and the outcome uncertain.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">If the general elections are perceived to have been held, as the PTI is alleging, on the basis of ‘pre-poll rigging’ (as opposed to our time tested post-poll rigging), it will lead to an absence of stability and quite possibly a major crisis of legitimacy down the road. If the present trend of reducing the elections to a farce continues, the state will then in its aftermath once again confront the lesson of our and the world’s history that state excesses are unable to dent the popularity of political parties and may even end up inadvertently enhancing it. If the current funereal mood in the country (reflecting a lack of hope of better things) continues in the presence of doubts about the legitimacy of the polls, turnout may well be low. And when the new dispensation, besmirched by the taint of being helped into power by the powers-that-be, takes office, its other problems of management of the country’s problems may well pale in comparison with the possible political fallout of what appears increasingly like gerrymandering. Ah, the wisdom of our real rulers!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-25350788017846667552023-12-26T04:57:00.000-08:002023-12-26T04:57:02.455-08:00Business Recorder Column December 26, 2023<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Exacerbating the problem</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The state’s penchant for turning a molehill into a mountain has been on ‘glorious’ display in Islamabad these past few days. The death in the custody of the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) in Balochistan of a young man, Balaach Mola Baksh, aroused the anger and indignation of his family, the families of other missing persons and right thinking citizens to such an extent that, after holding protests in Turbat, they decided, under the lead of the Baloch Yakjehti Council to undertake a protest long march to Islamabad against the persisting phenomenon of enforced disappearances, torture in custody and extra-judicial ‘kill and dump’ disposal of suspected militants since the fifth Baloch nationalist insurgency broke out in 2002. The route of the long march took them to Quetta, then via the Marri area (Kohlu), Barkhan, D G Khan, D I Khan to Islamabad. Along the way, the long march protestors were harassed by armed men (identity not revealed), local administrations’ blocking of roads to prevent the marchers moving forward, cancellation of transport by the authorities and several arrests on the charge of raising anti-state slogans. All these efforts of the state, however, proved unable to halt the long march, which finally arrived in the federal capital.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">This is neither the first nor, if present trends and practices persist, likely to be the last of such protests against enforced disappearances and extra-judicial killings (often after severe torture) in Balochistan for the last two decades. What is unique about this march though is that it is being led by women. This punctures our presumption of Balochistan as a backward tribal society. Earlier, Gwadar’s <i>Haq Do</i> (give us our rights) movement too was overwhelmingly led by and composed of women. This relatively new trend in Balochistan is owed to two factors. One, when men attempt to protest against the same crimes of enforced disappearances and extra-judicial killings, they face extreme harassment and worse. Second, since the overwhelming majority of missing persons in Balochistan are men, those left behind are their women to take up the banner of seeking justice against such illegal and unconstitutional repressive actions by the state. The women of Balochistan have earned the respect and trust of the people of Balochistan through their principled, uncompromising stand. Two, unlike similar protests in the past led by Mama Qadeer, et al, support for this protest long march has spread across all the provinces both because ethnic Baloch living in areas outside Balochistan are being visited by the same unwanted attentions of the state, and because the just and rightful nature of the protest has aroused the indignation and anger of all communities throughout the length and breadth of the country.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Having said all this, one cannot but hang one’s head in shame at the treatment meted out by the police in Islamabad to these peaceful protestors. Women, children and even the elderly were not spared water cannons, heavy batons beatings and roughing up before being bundled into police vans to be taken…no one knows where. The IG Islamabad received a rightful dose of scorn and derision from the Chief Justice of the Islamabad High Court when he unashamedly and blatantly lied through his teeth in claiming that the women protestors arrested had ‘chosen’ to be taken to and enjoy a sojourn in Islamabad’s police stations. Undeterred by the rocket he received from the bench, the IG then claimed some arrested women had been taken to a women’s hostel, a statement that still awaits credible affirmation. Perhaps the IG’s training in dissembling with the truth, and that too before the Chief Justice of the Islamabad High Court, leaves something to be desired.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The unnecessary and brutal treatment of the peaceful protestors left the caretaker government with egg on its face. It then attempted a damage control exercise through appointing a committee led by caretaker minister and former bureaucrat Fawad Ahmad Fawad to ‘negotiate’ with the protesters and somehow defuse the highly embarrassing situation for our ‘care’ takers. This committee then held a press conference with the same IG sitting cheek by jowl with them to make tall claims about the release of the protestors while sneaking in a word or two about the local troublemakers who had allegedly sneaked into the protesters’ sit-in and were held responsible for sparking the police response by throwing stones. The problem with this mountain of half-truths, untruths and plain and unvarnished lies is that today’s world is no longer dependent on ‘official’ information. If the mainstream media, already under the censorship cosh, covered these events in a restrained manner, social media laid bare the ugly visage of the state’s brutality against the peaceful protesters. In today’s world gentlemen, in case it has escaped your notice, it has become impossible to hide or distort the truth.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">While some protestors have been released, at least 100 are still ‘missing’ (ironically having thus joined the ranks of those they stood up for in the first place!). But why single out the Islamabad police and caretaker administration. Balochistan has been dealt with exclusively with brutal force since the day Pakistan came into existence. The grievances of the Baloch are of a political nature (which of course includes economic and social issues) but have always been dealt with by the use of brutal force and bloody suppression. If this trend, exemplified once again by the events in Islamabad adumbrated above, continues, the state will have no one but itself to blame for driving more and more of the people of Balochistan into the arms of the nationalist insurgents who, having despaired of the state’s ability or intent to deal fairly and politically with their grievances, are increasingly declaring themselves for the right of self-determination, including independence.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-90731820900723893232023-12-12T07:35:00.000-08:002023-12-12T07:35:17.282-08:00The December 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out<p>The December 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com</p><p>Contents:</p><p>1. Charles Amjad-Ali: Anti-semitism – A Hypocritical Epithet to cover Israel's Apartheid – IV.</p><p>2. Rafi Pervaiz Bhatti: The Muslim Identity in India – II: The disruptive effect of Orthodox Islam on Muslim identity.</p><p>3. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – IV.</p><p>4. Vijay Prashad: A new mood in the world will put an end to the global Monroe Doctrine.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook). </p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-34304041698050033992023-12-12T03:43:00.000-08:002023-12-12T03:43:22.441-08:00Business Recorder Column December 12, 2023<p> As written by me:</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Nawaz Sharif: prospects, problems<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The view of most analysts is that Nawaz Sharif is poised to become Prime Minister (PM) for the fourth time as a result of the general elections in February 2024. But while this consensus rests on solid grounds where the political equation of the main parties’ prospects in that election go, there may still be a slip or two between the cup and the lip. First the positives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">All other things being equal (which, some might object, is seldom the case in Pakistan), Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) still enjoys its considerable traditional constituency in the largest by population (and therefore seats in parliament) province, Punjab. If that reading is correct, a further smattering of seats from the other three provinces should see the PML-N home and dry. The party leadership has been reaching out to Balochistan, Sindh, and even the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party of Jehangir Tareen et al and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) of Chaudhry Shujaat in Punjab for seat adjustments. These manoeuvrings are the traditional stuff of our electoral politics, where principle and ethics always run a poor second to pragmatic (if not opportunist) accommodations with parties not hostile to each other. If any province so far shows signs of benign neglect by the PML-N, arguably it is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). On the other hand, the only potential rival to the PML-N in Punjab, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) is under the hammer and unlikely to receive the ‘level playing field’ it has been baying for since at least the tentative date of the general elections became a near certainty. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has yet to recover from its political decimation years ago in Punjab. It is once again likely to secure its stronghold in Sindh, but precious little else.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now the obstacles to the seemingly logical return of Nawaz Sharif to power. The PML-N seems worried by the snail’s pace at which the appeals against conviction of Nawaz Sharif appear to be moving. The party’s concern is Nawaz Sharif may be left hanging in the air and unable to himself fight the election if he is not cleared of all the charges and prison sentences he was graced with to accompany his ouster in 2017, ostensibly on the basis of the revelations in the Panama Papers, but in fact through the Supreme Court’s (SC’s) legerdemain in pronouncing him not <i>sadiq</i> and <i>ameen</i> (truthful and honest) and therefore disqualified because he had not declared the unclaimed salary from his son’s company abroad. At the time the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Asif Saeed Khosa’s SC pronounced the verdict, I had described the decision in the vernacular as <i>“Khodia pahar tay niklia chooha”</i> (A mountain was dug up but all that was found was a mouse). Such pronouncements have unfortunately besmirched the fair face of the judiciary in our history with monotonous regularity. It remains to be seen if CJP Qazi Faez Isa’s SC will carry through on its promise to clean up these Augean stables of the judiciary’s past. But even if the glacial pace (inherent and sometimes deliberate) of our judicial processes keeps Nawaz Sharif out of the February 2024 electoral fray, would anyone be in any doubt who would call the shots in the next PML-N government even if it is from behind the curtain? Naturally the PML-N would prefer the legitimacy a Nawaz Sharif-led government would enjoy. But if push comes to shove, the party can and perhaps should prepare a Plan B for a belated occupation of the PM’s chair by their unchallenged leader Nawaz Sharif.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now to what a Nawaz Sharif-led (immediate or belated) PML-N government is likely to do and the immense, unprecedented challenges it would confront. First and foremost, as Nawaz Sharif has himself declared the other day, he reiterated his favourite theme of improving relations with all Pakistan’s neighbours, especially India. This is significant because arguably, it is Nawaz Sharif’s consistent efforts in this regard, outreach to India, that led to his three previous dismissals and ousters from power. Why then, would he tread on such slippery ground again, even before the outcome of the polls? The context of this conundrum is that Nawaz Sharif represents that considerable section of the Pakistani bourgeoisie that has consistently maintained that it is in the country’s paramount interest to turn the corner and normalise relations with India. As justification for such a stance, this section of our industrial and commercial classes point to the unarguable benefits that potentially await in opening up bilateral trade, investment, and movement of goods and services bilaterally as well as onwards to Central Asia and beyond (our very own Belt and Road Initiative!). Of course peace and normalisation with India implies centrally compromise over Kashmir, which, if the history of overt and covert bilateral dialogues on the issue are any indicator, would mean no exchange of existing territory held by either side in the long suffering state, accompanied by mutual demilitarisation of the Line of Control (LoC) and rendering it a soft ‘border’ to allow the two-way movement of goods and long divided Kashmiri families. It is one of the ironies of history that the author of the Kargil misadventure, late General Pervez Musharraf, after he had grabbed power through his military coup in 1999, followed it up with a journey to the Agra summit with Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee, where precisely these contours of a Kashmir solution came within a whisker’s breadth of being clinched.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Why Nawaz Sharif may feel he is on firmer ground this time in returning to his favourite theme of peace and normalisation with India is the strategic shift in the military’s thinking on the issue. Starting with former Chief of Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the muted signals emanating from the military indicate that the premier defence institution has arrived at a reality check on the prospects of war and conflict with our eastern neighbour. Although the nuclear deterrent arguably (despite, and perhaps because of the Kargil experience) militates against an all-out war between Pakistan and India, even if the nuclear deterrent is ignored for the sake of argument, a conventional all-out war is to be avoided because of Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth and sufficient wherewithal to wage a protracted war. If this assessment is correct, Nawaz Sharif’s idea of rapprochement with India may well have won the day, in the process weakening the concerns of the past that it might lead to negative political consequences here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">While this is a hopeful scenario, a lot depends for the moment on the 2024 general elections in both Pakistan and India, the outcome probably birthing a Nawaz-Modi re-engagement. That would indeed be a positive and hopeful scenario for both countries, the region and the world. Fingers crossed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">As published by the paper:</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Nawaz Sharif: prospects and challenges<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The view of most analysts is that Nawaz Sharif is poised to become Prime Minister (PM) for the fourth time as a result of the general elections in February 2024. But while this consensus rests on solid grounds where the political equation of the main parties’ prospects in that election go, there may still be a slip or two between the cup and the lip. First the positives.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">All other things being equal (which, some might object, is seldom the case in Pakistan), Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) still enjoys its considerable traditional constituency in the largest by population (and therefore seats in parliament) province, Punjab. If that reading is correct, a further smattering of seats from the other three provinces should see the PML-N home and dry. The party leadership has been reaching out to Balochistan, Sindh, and even the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party of Jehangir Tareen et al and Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) of Chaudhry Shujaat in Punjab for seat adjustments. These manoeuvrings are the traditional stuff of our electoral politics, where principle and ethics always run a poor second to pragmatic (if not opportunist) accommodations with parties not hostile to each other. If any province so far shows signs of benign neglect by the PML-N, arguably it is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). On the other hand, the only potential rival to the PML-N in Punjab, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) is under the hammer and unlikely to receive ‘a level playing field’ it has been baying for since at least the tentative date of the general elections became a near certainty. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has yet to recover from its political decimation years ago in Punjab. It is once again likely to secure its stronghold in Sindh, but precious little else.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now the obstacles to the seemingly logical return of Nawaz Sharif to power. The PML-N seems worried by the snail’s pace at which the appeals against conviction of Nawaz Sharif appear to be moving. The party’s concern is Nawaz Sharif may be left hanging in the air and unable to himself fight the election if he is not cleared of all the charges and prison sentences he was graced with to accompany his ouster in 2017, ostensibly on the basis of the revelations in the Panama Papers, but in fact through the Supreme Court’s (SC’s) legerdemain in pronouncing him not <i>sadiq</i> and <i>ameen</i> (truthful and honest) and therefore disqualified because he had not declared the unclaimed salary from his son’s company abroad. At the time the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Asif Saeed Khosa’s SC pronounced the verdict, I had described the decision in the vernacular as <i>“Khodia pahar tay niklia chooha”</i> (A mountain was dug up but all that was found was a mouse). Such pronouncements have unfortunately besmirched the fair face of the judiciary in our history with monotonous regularity. It remains to be seen if CJP Qazi Faez Isa’s SC will carry through on its promise to clean up these Augean stables of the judiciary’s past. But even if the glacial pace (inherent and sometimes deliberate) of our judicial processes keeps Nawaz Sharif out of the February 2024 electoral fray, would anyone be in any doubt who would call the shots in the next PML-N government even if it is from behind the curtain? Naturally the PML-N would prefer the legitimacy a Nawaz Sharif-led government would enjoy. But if push comes to shove, the party can and perhaps should prepare a Plan B for a belated occupation of the PM’s chair by their unchallenged leader Nawaz Sharif.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Now to what a Nawaz Sharif-led (immediate or belated) PML-N government is likely to do and the immense, unprecedented challenges it would confront. First and foremost, as Nawaz Sharif has himself declared the other day, he reiterated his favourite theme of improving relations with all Pakistan’s neighbours, especially India. This is significant because arguably, it is Nawaz Sharif’s consistent efforts in this regard, outreach to India, that led to his three previous dismissals and ousters from power. Why then, would he tread on such slippery ground again, even before the outcome of the polls? The context of this conundrum is that Nawaz Sharif represents that considerable section of the Pakistani bourgeoisie that has consistently maintained that it is in the country’s paramount interest to turn the corner and normalise relations with India. As justification for such a stance, this section of our industrial and commercial classes point to the unarguable benefits that potentially await in opening up bilateral trade, investment, and movement of goods and services bilaterally as well as onwards to Central Asia and beyond (our very own Belt and Road Initiative!). Of course peace and normalisation with India implies centrally compromise over Kashmir, which, if the history of overt and covert bilateral dialogues on the issue are any indicator, would mean no exchange of existing territory held by either side in the long suffering state, accompanied by mutual demilitarisation of the Line of Control (LoC) and rendering it a soft ‘border’ to allow the two-way movement of goods and long divided Kashmiri families. It is one of the ironies of history that the author of the Kargil misadventure, late General Pervez Musharraf, after he had grabbed power through his military coup in 1999, followed it up with a journey to the Agra summit with Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee, where precisely these contours of a Kashmir solution came within a whisker’s breadth of being clinched.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Why Nawaz Sharif may feel he is on firmer ground this time in returning to his favourite theme of peace and normalisation with India is the strategic shift in the military’s thinking on the issue. Starting with former Chief of Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa, the muted signals emanating from the military indicate that the premier defence institution has arrived at a reality check on the prospects of war and conflict with our eastern neighbour. Although the nuclear deterrent arguably (despite, and perhaps because of the Kargil experience) militates against an all-out war between Pakistan and India, even if the nuclear deterrent is ignored for the sake of argument, a conventional all-out war is to be avoided because of Pakistan’s lack of strategic depth and sufficient wherewithal to wage a protracted war. If this assessment is correct, Nawaz Sharif’s idea of rapprochement with India may well have won the day, in the process weakening the concerns of the past that it might lead to negative political consequences here.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">While this is a hopeful scenario, a lot depends for the moment on the 2024 general elections in both Pakistan and India, the outcome probably birthing a Nawaz-Modi re-engagement. That would indeed be a positive and hopeful scenario for both countries, the region and the world. Fingers crossed.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><br /></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-53995575177570469842023-12-10T04:03:00.000-08:002023-12-10T04:03:08.493-08:00Health bulletin 4<p>I have been diagnosed with prostrate cancer. The doctors think it can be controlled with medicine, which I have started. Please keep me in your thoughts.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-33651104438918221322023-12-05T03:01:00.000-08:002023-12-05T03:01:05.678-08:00Business Recorder Column December 5, 2023<p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Israel bent on genocide<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Only the naïve could have imagined that Israel would continue the truce that allowed the exchange of some of the Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners. As soon as the week-long truce expired, Israel not only went on the offensive again, it expanded its scope to southern Gaza, which it had earlier touted as a safe zone for the residents of Gaza city and northern Gaza to relocate to since the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) intended to occupy northern Gaza in the wake of its brutal military offensive. As things stand now, not only has Israel militarily captured most of northern Gaza, it has turned its bloody gaze towards southern Gaza, where it claims the Hamas leadership and the remaining Israeli hostages are located. It should not be forgotten that Israel’s earlier demand that northern Gazans move south to so-called ‘safe zones’ did not prevent it from attacking the columns of Palestinians streaming south. Now they once again face the prospect of being displaced with nowhere left to go.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The renewed Israeli attack on now the whole of Gaza so far has yielded 400 attacks and 700 Palestinians killed. As a result the total of Palestinian casualties since October 7, 2023 has reached more than 15,500, of whom 70 percent are women and children and 280 medics. While well-meaning international organisations such as Doctors Sans Frontieres and the International Court of Justice appeal to the world’s conscience to stop Israel in its barbaric tracks, not much can be expected from these appeals and condemnations so long as the US’s total support to Israel continues. This includes the inability of the UN Security Council to bring any sort of meaningful pressure to bear on Israel, given Washington’s veto power in that august but toothless body supposedly enjoined to keep the peace worldwide. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk says hundreds of thousands of Gazans are being squeezed into smaller areas in the south, resulting in no safe place anywhere in Gaza. If he had been a little more truthful he would have unequivocally stated that Israel intends to drive as many as possible if not all Palestinians out of Gaza and occupy the Strip indefinitely to avoid the territory ever again being used for the kind of attacks staged by Hamas on October 7, which exposed the so-called impenetrable defence of Israel as overstated and hollow.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Some 1.8 million Palestinians have been displaced to overcrowded, unsanitary shelters in the south, resulting in chaos of an unimaginable degree. Meanwhile the IDF claims to have found 800 tunnel shafts in the north, of which it claims to have destroyed some 500. This, however, has still not prevented Hamas and Islamic Jihad from launching rockets into Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities, in a show of defiance and resilience that is a smack in the face of Israel.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The Zionist entity now faces a dilemma of unprecedented proportions. Its brutality, which cannot in today’s world be hidden from view in an unprecedentedly interconnected world, may be (according to it) bringing military advances but in the process is losing it the war of narratives, with enormous political implications for the future. Even US President Joe Biden may well lose the 2024 presidential election because of the backlash at home against his unqualified support for Israel’s genocidal campaign. That campaign is not confined to Gaza. In the West Bank, 60 Palestinians are the latest count of detainees. They can be added to the 3,000 detained since October 7. During the brief truce, as many Palestinians were arrested in the West Bank as were released in exchange for the Israeli hostages. Israel’s atrocities continue unabated and in typical lying, hypocritical fashion. Israel is now threatening to eliminate Hamas leaders in southern Gaza, Lebanon, Turkiye, Qatar and anywhere else they can be found. The more repressive and barbaric the Zionist entity’s actions, the more it is cutting the ground from under its own future.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, an experienced top US military commander, has warned Israel that if civilians are not protected and the Israeli settler and security forces’ violence against the West Bank Palestinians not avoided in the kind of urban warfare being waged in Gaza, Israel risks turning a tactical victory into a strategic defeat. He bases this view on the US’s experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. Of course, given the US administration’s position, he felt obliged to trot out phrases about the US remaining Israel’s closest friend in the world (amongst a dwindling few), but his words are a cautionary message to Israel not to push the civilians into the arms of the ‘enemy’, which would ensure their radicalisation and prolong the war. Austin is being naïve if he thinks Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Gaza has not already wrought the result he is warning against.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Logic suggests on the basis of Israel’s previous military forays into Gaza that its stated goal of eliminating Hamas is unrealistic. That implies the war will be a long one, and if the Houthis’ attacks on Israeli and US shipping in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea and the almost by now daily clashes between Hezbollah and Israel on the Lebanon border in the north are any indication, a wider one. Perhaps premature, but the same logic points in the direction of the beginning of the end of the Zionist entity. And not a moment too soon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-88348656650798571222023-11-28T07:53:00.000-08:002023-11-28T07:53:23.165-08:00Business Recorder Column November 28, 2023<p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Fallout of the Gaza war</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Rashed Rahman<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">One and a half months after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel from Gaza on October 7, 2023, and despite the temporary truce allowing an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, the war between Israel and the Palestinians seems poised to continue. Under US, western and hostage families’ pressure, Israel agreed to the pause in fighting to allow the exchange of some of the hostages in two installments in exchange for the release of some of the almost 7,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israel’s ‘security custody’. Israel’s belligerence towards the Palestinians and Arabs however, shows no signs of lessening. While the pause was in effect in Gaza to allow the exchange and some (inadequate) humanitarian supplies to relieve the suffering from thirst, hunger and medical requirements of the suffering people of Gaza, Israeli security forces and settlers in the West Bank continued their attacks on Palestinians, killing eight in 24 hours in Jenin, Ramallah and Nablus. Aggressive Israelis once again invaded Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and, with the help of the Israeli security forces, prevented Palestinians from worshipping there. Syria’s capital Damascus suffered its second bombing by Israel and cessation of flights within one month. This toll can now be added to the almost 15,000 killed and 1.7 million displaced in the indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, sparing neither hospitals nor schools nor non-combatant civilians. The biggest irony or macabre joke was when Israel asked the Palestinian residents of Gaza city and the north to move to southern Gaza for safety, only to bomb them en route and when they arrived in the south.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">The temporary truce may end soon (some extension notwithstanding), but the Israeli-Palestinian war now seems a long term affair. Some context. Since the time when the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) indulged in plane hijackings in the 1970s, leading eventually (after Black September) to the expulsion of Palestinian fighters from Jordan and the later (1980s) expulsion from Lebanon (where they had relocated) at the hands of the Israeli invaders and their local fascist collaborators (the Falange, et al), the Palestinian armed resistance was left without a base of operations from which to strike at Israel. Yasser Arafat, leader of Al Fatah, then decided to plumb for diplomacy and, with US blessings, signed the Camp David and Oslo Accords that promised a two-state solution that never saw the light of day. The diplomatic/political push by the Palestinians ended up as a damp squib, with, after Arafat’s murder through poisoning by the Israelis, leaving the Palestine Authority (PA, created under the Oslo Accords) housed in the West Bank ineffective and, over time, reduced to a virtual ‘sub-contractor’ of the Israeli state.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">By 2007, Hamas rose to challenge the PA in Gaza and has effectively controlled the Strip ever since. Israel’s current foray into Gaza is not the first. Since Hamas was now the only effective armed resistance left in the field, Israel has repeatedly tried to scotch it by invading Gaza, each time to no avail. This time too, Hamas is waging urban guerrilla warfare that is taking a heavier toll of the invaders than they have dared to admit so far. On the other hand, the nascent public opinion the world over that had begun to see through Israel’s propaganda shield of trotting out memories of the Nazi Holocaust in Germany to label the Palestinians anti-Semitic (the irony of course being that Palestinians and Arabs are Semitic too), has grown before our eyes into a flood of sympathy for the beleaguered Palestinians as a result of Israel’s genocidal war. In this respect, seeing the huge turnouts of pro-Palestinian protest around the world, including the west, one is reminded of one’s youth in London in the 1960s when an entire generation turned out against the Vietnam war. Today, as in 1968 (the year of till then the largest protest demonstration ever in London)), the people, particularly youth, are at loggerheads with their governments in the west, blindly supporting Israel and trying to suppress pro-Palestinian voices.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Hamas’ October 7 attack has irrevocably changed the equation, not only for Palestine, but for the region and the world as a whole. The Oslo Accords, two-state solution, possible rapprochement between more and more Arab countries and Israel, all this has been duly dumped in the trash can. The Muslim world, as usual, is betraying its spineless, toothless character, in hock as most of it is to the US-led west. There is unlikely to be any peaceful political solution now to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Iran will back Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen to continue the armed resistance against the expansionist, settler colonialist Zionist entity. When that entity is finally brought to its knees, only then perhaps can one hope for a reconciliatory dialogue between the victims and their oppressors, the Palestinians and Israelis, provided of course the latter are prepared to acknowledge their historic wrongs against the former and prepared to contemplate a different reality that shuns apartheid, discrimination and oppression in favour of a very different Palestine that may include Jews who have shunned Zionism.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">Too much to hope for? History is witness to stranger outcomes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><a href="mailto:rashed.rahman1@gmail.com" style="color: #954f72;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed.rahman1@gmail.com</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; margin: 0cm;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">rashed-rahman.blogspot.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-18143982285068003872023-11-03T06:40:00.002-07:002023-11-03T06:40:45.410-07:00The November 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out<p>The November 2023 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com</p><p>Contents:</p><p>1. Vijay Prashad: The Palestinian people are already free.</p><p>2. <span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">Birzeit University Union of Professors and Employees, Occupied Palestine: </span><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">We are all Palestinians.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">3. Charles Amjad-Ali: Anti-Semitism: A hypocritical epithet to cover Israel's epithet – III.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">4. Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur: The Rise of Baloch Nationalism and Resistance – III.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">5. Ashraf Jehangir Qazi: Indian Electoral Politics: Implications for diplomacy and options for Pakistan.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">6. Fayyaz Baqir: Silent Revolution in Pakistan.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">7. Dr Maqsud Nuri: Far Right Populism: Present situation and likely trends.</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">Rashed Rahman</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;">Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</span></p><p><span style="color: #242424; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt;"> </span></p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5797119028475305741.post-88700136543225332712023-10-27T05:16:00.001-07:002023-10-27T05:16:37.352-07:00Book Launch at RPC<p> Research and Publication Centre (RPC) invites all friends to the Book Launch of Dr Tariq Rahman's "Pakistan's Wars: An Alternative History" at RPC, 2nd Floor, 65 Main Boulevard Gulberg, Lahore (next to Standard Chartered Bank, above Indesign showroom) on Saturday, October 28, 2023, 4:00 pm.</p><p>Speakers:</p><p>Faqir Aijazuddin, author, columnist.</p><p>Rahim ul Haq, academic.</p><p>Rashed Rahman, Editor/journalist.</p><p>Dr Tariq Rahman will respond to the speakers' contributions.</p><p>Tea will be served after the event.</p><p>Rashed Rahman</p><p>Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview)</p><p>Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)</p>Rashed Rahmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03598225045989418247noreply@blogger.com0