Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Business Recorder Column July 26, 2022

Gasping for breath

 

Rashed Rahman

 

It proved difficult to put pen to paper today as the whole country waited with bated breath for the Supreme Court (SC) to pronounce on the petition challenging Punjab Assembly Deputy Speaker Dost Muhammad Mazari’s ruling rejecting 10 Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) MPAs’ votes in the run-off election for Chief Minister on July 22, 2022. On Saturday, July 23, the SC bench of three members headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Ata Bandial held the requests of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and top lawyers’ bodies for a full court to hear the case and issues surrounding it in abeyance. On Monday, July 25, the SC bench first postponed a decision on the formation of a full court bench till 5:30 pm, but after the hearing resumed at that time, decided the parties before the court should be heard on the matter first and the issue of formation of a full court bench be decided later. Last reports said the PML-N counsel argued that his case included the reasoning behind the demand for a full court hearing, but if the bench was not inclined to hear this, he would refrain. The court seemed to appreciate this attitude and approach. What may transpire next and how the hearing goes cannot at this point be predicted or commented upon.

What can, however, be dilated upon is a recap of how we got here, what are the implications of the extreme polarisation between the two sides of the political divide, and where the political and economic crisis may be headed.

Imran Khan’s removal as Prime Minister (PM) in April 2022 through a no-confidence motion marked the start of the present round of political turmoil and instability, which further roiled a struggling economy bequeathed by the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government’s mishandling of the economy. During the no-confidence drama, the Speaker and Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly (NA) betrayed their partisanship towards Imran Khan by the former refusing to preside over the session and the latter dismissing the no-confidence motion on the basis of a trumped up foreign conspiracy. This conspiracy theory has fortunately been finally shot down by the superior judiciary.

Since his fall, Imran Khan has gone on the warpath against his political foes (now in office) and (off and on) the establishment. Ironically, the way things have developed since in terms of the daily barbs hurled at each other by the PML-N-led ruling coalition and the PTI, one is left scratching one’s head about the emerging trend of both sides ‘wooing’ the establishment, yet not hesitating to criticise it if things go against their will. While the establishment has been maintaining an enigmatic silence, reports have now surfaced of a ‘soft intervention’ to persuade the warring politicians to sit down calmly and find a political solution that helps bolster the teetering economy.

If we cast a glance back at our history, it seems the more time passes and things change in Pakistan, the more they remain the same. From Independence till at least the General Ziaul Haq era (1977-88), the military, bureaucracy, and the ruling elite comprised largely of capitalists and large landowners held the country in thrall to an authoritarian dispensation. But this period also saw firm and principled resistance to this oppressive legerdemain. However, from 1988 to date, while the military did overthrow a civilian democratically elected government (Nawaz Sharif’s) in 1999, it did not declare martial law, unlike past military regimes. It had no need to, as subsequent events that transpired proved. First and foremost, most liberal and some progressive elements bought into the ‘liberal’ image projected by military coup-maker General Pervez Musharraf and jumped like lemmings off a cliff into his lap. Next the SC not only resurrected the so-called doctrine of necessity to justify the coup, it anointed the military dictator with the power to amend the Constitution, without even being asked to do so! The ‘lemmings’ first mentioned eventually came to rue their shortsighted, unprincipled support to General Musharraf, but by then it was too late. The superior judiciary (under CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry) eventually fell out with the military dictator and was ‘dismissed’. Then the right and left combined to turf out Musharraf through the Lawyers’ Movement. The coup de grace to the Musharraf dictatorship however, was the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, for which the self-exiled (with the help of his mother institution) and now reportedly seriously ill former dictator has still to be brought to justice (not to mention the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti, which impelled part of the otherwise traditionally quiescent Bugti tribe to revolt).

I quote these historical facts to point to what we have become: a society of power worshippers and collaborators, with principled, ethical people with integrity being reduced to a threatened species. The current tussle between the factions of the ruling elite appears to make even the prospects of our deeply flawed parliamentary democracy darker and graver. The rumoured split in the establishment in support of one or the other side of the political divide threatens its traditional iron discipline, with even graver implications for the country’s future.

While all the shenanigans of the two sides of the political divide play out daily before our eyes, the people seem to have no say as to their fate or future, nor their troubled present. More than ever, what is needed is a mobilisation of the masses to wrest from this wretched order a new social contract in favour of the people, if not a completely new order in confirmation of the people’s rights.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Business Recorder Column July 19, 2022

An unexpected victory

 

Rashed Rahman

 

Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) has pulled an unexpected rabbit out of its hat by trouncing the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the by-elections to 20 seats in the latter’s stronghold of Punjab. The by-elections had been necessitated by the defection of PTI’s 20 MPAs, who voted for Hamza Shahbaz Sharif as Chief Minister (CM) of the province. The final electoral tally was PTI 15, PML-N four, and an independent one. This gives the PTI a simple majority in the Punjab Assembly, allowing it to elect Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, Speaker of the Punjab Assembly and from the PTI’s ally Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), as the CM in a run-off vote on July 22, 2022, as ordered by the Supreme Court.

In retrospect, the reasons for the surprise defeat seem clear, although the implications for the future of the federal coalition government headed by the PML-N’s Prime Minister (PM) Shahbaz Sharif seem forbidding. Looking at the results, the PTI won in all three areas of Punjab – northern, central and southern – evenly distributed at five seats each, implying an irresistible tilt of the voters towards the PTI.

Two critical factors suggest why the PML-N came a cropper and PTI upended all expectations in these by-elections. One, the candidates fielded by the PML-N were all former PTI MPAs who had defected to vote for Hamza Shahbaz as CM. The only exception was one seat in Lahore, where a PML-N candidate won. This outcome implies the voters did not appreciate the PTI defectors standing on PML-N tickets. Within the PML-N at constituency level, there was both resentment and apathy at the tickets being handed out to PTI defectors en masse, with hardly a nod at loyal PML-N workers and leaders at local constituency level. Despite Maryam Nawaz’s campaigning, the PML-N narrative failed to inspire or match Imran Khan’s aggressive, conspiracy theory-laden bluster. There may also be some element of our traditional tilt towards the perceived underdog in any political/electoral contest.

Never one to give up an advantage, Imran Khan persists in his rampage against ‘rigging’ through the state machinery and a ‘totally biased’ Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), all of which he claims the PTI overcame through the efforts of its workers and voters. Throughout the election campaign, Imran Khan had deployed the double-edged sword of alleged rigging and claims of victory, a gambit that covered all contingencies but which now appears silly after the PTI’s sweep. If the ECP was ‘biased’, how did the largely peaceful, fair and free elections, local brawls and controversies notwithstanding, take place? How did an opposition PTI win? Now Imran Khan, fresh from his triumph, is demanding fair and free general elections under a ‘credible’ ECP!

The second critical factor in the PML-N’s defeat is the political cost it was forced to pay by taking hard economic decisions on the IMF’s urging to avoid default and meltdown. Inflation inherited from the PTI’s bad governance was exacerbated by the PML-N’s being forced to raise petrol and energy prices in response to trends in the international market. The reduction in petrol and diesel prices the other day, made affordable by a drop in international prices, proved too little, too late.

Maryam Nawaz and other PML-N leaders have accepted defeat gracefully, although disappointment is writ large on their faces. Both PTI and the PML-N-led coalition are meeting to chalk out their strategy from here on. With three provinces out of its grasp and Sindh under Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) rule, PM Shahbaz Sharif’s federal coalition government is threatened by inability to run the affairs of the federation because of the absence of consensus and the possibility that if three provincial Assemblies are dissolved, a general election looms closer than before. And despite agreement with the IMF, the external aid situation may become more fraught, adding to the weakness of the federal government.

In their deliberations on the situation that has now emerged, the PML-N will no doubt, at the insistence of Nawaz Sharif, reflect with hindsight on the wisdom of removing Imran Khan and his government through a no-confidence motion, thereby inheriting the economic mess the PTI left behind. Nawaz Sharif had argued for letting Imran Khan remain in office till his tenure expired in 2023, pointing out that his incompetence and blundering (including the falling out with his ‘selectors’) would weaken and destroy his credibility, i.e. letting him sink under the weight of his own floundering. This by-election has strengthened that argument to the status virtually of unassailable.

It was PPP co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari’s Machiavellian approach to politics that prevailed with Shahbaz Sharif, no doubt leavened by the temptation of prime ministership for himself and the chief ministership of Punjab for his son Hamza. Shahbaz Sharif was also considered more amenable to playing ball with the military establishment. Now events have proved Nawaz Sharif’s political instincts correct. The only party that has suffered in this debacle is the PML-N. The PPP had no major stakes in Punjab, since its presence there is a pale reflection today of its once mighty dominance in the largest (by population) and most powerful province in the country. In passing, let us not forget that it was PML-N that eventually replaced the PPP in Punjab. Whether the by-election loss implies the PML-N has itself been replaced by the PTI in Punjab may be too early to say. The decisions by all sides of the political divide on future strategy will be the best indicator of the direction things may move in the days ahead.

 

 

 

 

 

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Sunday, July 3, 2022

The July 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out

 The July 2022 issue of Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) is out. Link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com

Contents:

1. Rashed Rahman: The prospects for revolution today.

2. Prof Neelam Hussain: Book Review of Fawzia Afzal-Khan's Siren Songs: Understanding Pakistan Through Its Women Singers.

Rashed Rahman

Editor, Pakistan Monthly Review (PMR) (link: pakistanmonthlyreview.com)

Director, Research and Publication Centre (RPC) (on Facebook)