Afghanistan
needs genuine, not illusory, peace
As the US and
the Taliban appear to inch closer to a negotiated settlement of the war in
Afghanistan through the talks in Doha, unsettling issues nevertheless dog the
process. Whereas the Taliban confidently see an agreement being reached in the
next few days in Doha, whether peace will return to war-torn Afghanistan
remains a troubling question. What has emerged over the rounds of talks is that
the US and Taliban seem to be agreed on the former’s troop withdrawal, with a
tentative timeline of a year to year-and-a-half in the air (the Taliban
seemingly not having insisted on their initial desire for a six month
deadline). The withdrawal too may be staggered, with the 14,000 US troops in
the country initially perhaps being reduced to around 9,000. Even more
significantly, US air support, which has so far been critical for the Afghan
government forces, will no longer be available against the Taliban. However, US
chief negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad has rejected the Taliban’s assertion that the
remaining US forces will not defend or support the Afghan government forces in
any shape or form. In return, the Taliban pledge not to attack US forces,
particularly through ‘insider’ attacks, but insist Afghan government forces
remain fair game. Also of course, the Taliban have pledged to break with groups
such as al Qaeda as a guarantee that neither they nor any of their allies will
be involved in any terrorist attacks a la 9/11 against the US or its allies and
interests. So far so good, one might be tempted to think. However, the fly in
the ointment even now is the stubborn rejection by the Taliban to hold talks
with the Afghan government, which they dismiss as a puppet. President Ashraf
Ghani’s government can be forgiven for feeling ‘left out’ of the talks process.
Although the Doha talks have not so far dented the Taliban’s stubbornness in
this regard, efforts are afoot to hold intra-Afghan talks in Norway. However,
as has happened at such meetings in recent days in disparate venues, the Afghan
side will not have an official Afghan government component. The Taliban instead
will face a conglomerate of civil society groups that seek assurances the
Taliban will not try to reverse the gains in political, human and women’s
rights since they were ousted and attempt to reimpose the dark days of their
rule. Any assurances in this regard ring hollow when the statement of a Taliban
commander is paid heed to. The gentleman insists a deal with the US will not
stop attacks on the Afghan government forces and that “We will continue our
fight against the Afghan government and seize power by force.”
Whether
deliberately or inadvertently, the commander quoted above has let the cat out
of the bag as far as the Taliban’s post-US withdrawal game plan is concerned. So
the way the deal seems to be shaping up in the Taliban’s mind is a two-party
deal that effectively ends the US-Taliban war, but not the threatened fresh
civil war between them and the Afghan government. The Americans keep saying
that talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are critical for a
peace agreement but that they have not started as yet. True, but if the
commander speaks for the Taliban mind, the prospects of these starting, let
alone producing a peace agreement, seem remote. Washington may be satisfied
with the door opening to its withdrawal and guarantees of no more 9/11 type
attacks, but the Afghan government and people face the unsavoury prospect of
being led like lambs to the slaughter. Of course they will defend themselves
against a fresh onslaught by the Taliban, but the prospects of that succeeding
are dim. A fresh civil war after a US withdrawal will also have implications
for the region, not to mention Pakistan, in the shape of the spillover effects
of such a new civil war. Washington must ensure that genuine, not illusory,
peace is attained before it leaves. Otherwise the Afghan people will again
suffer the light being extinguished by the benighted views of the Taliban. And
that could produce another wave of refugees fleeing the fighting or the Taliban
threatened takeover.
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