Impasse in Doha
After a marathon
fifth round of talks lasting 16 days in Doha, Qatar, from
February 24 to March 12, 2019 between the US and the Taliban, the two sides
presented contrasting views on the outcome. US Special Representative Zalmay
Khalilzad announced at the end of the talks that he was now heading to
Washington for consultations. It seems disagreements on the agenda of the
talks, two agreed points for discussion, i.e. the timetable for the withdrawal
of foreign troops and ensuring Afghan soil is never again used to attack the US
or its allies, and Washington’s increasing insistence the Taliban hold
face-to-face talks with the Afghan government and announce a ceasefire have
emerged as roadblocks to a final, comprehensive agreement. Zalmay Khalilzad
tried hard to maintain overall optimism in a series of tweets, asserting that
the conditions for peace have improved, all sides want to end the war, and
despite ups and downs, real strides were made. But he tempered this positive
take by also underlining the obstacles to a final deal. These centre on four
issues, according to the Ambassador: counter-terrorism assurances (no repeat of
9/11 ever again from Afghan soil), troop withdrawal, intra-Afghan dialogue
(between the Taliban and the Afghan government), and a ceasefire. Khalilzad
recalled that in January 2019, the US and Taliban had agreed in principle on
these four elements. He went on to add that the two sides are now ‘agreed in
draft’ on the first two. Once these are finalised, the intra-Afghan talks and
ceasefire negotiations will begin. After consultations in Washington, Khalilzad
ended, the two sides will meet again soon (probably April 2019) but cautioned
that (in the light of the above) there is no final agreement until everything
is agreed. In short, Khalilzad left his audience with the choice of deciding
whether the glass was half full or half empty. The Taliban spokesman Zabihullah
Mujahid described the talks as extensive and detailed regarding the two issues
agreed upon in January 2019: withdrawal of foreign forces and preventing harm
to others from Afghan soil. His take was that progress had been made but both
sides will now brief and consult their respective leaderships. He did underline
that no agreement was reached regarding a ceasefire and talks with Kabul, nor
were other issues part of the current agenda. Although the Taliban spokesman
refuted some media reports in this regard, there were reports of
dissatisfaction and frustration in the Taliban delegation’s ranks because the
US side, bolstered by two unnamed senior US administration officials, kept
raising new issues that were not part of the agreed agenda. Nor did they offer
anything in return for demands that the Taliban open up to discussions on
intra-Afghan talks and a ceasefire, according to these reports. The frustrated
and angry members of the Taliban delegation that spoke to some media outlets
anonymously said that every time the two sides were grappling with the core
issues of troop withdrawal and counter-terrorism assurances, the US officials
kept skipping to other demands and questions, including the intra-Afghan talks,
a ceasefire, and what sort of sharia the Taliban were now inclined to install
if a negotiated political settlement could be worked out.
Tenuous and
difficult as these negotiations in Doha are, it is obvious that there is still
many a slip between the cup and the lip. While the US would like assurances on
the four points mentioned above as well as being informed of the Taliban’s
intentions regarding the political and social system they favour after a
settlement, the Taliban are focused on just the first two points agreed for
discussion in January 2019. This is because they still do not recognize the
Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani, which they deride as a US puppet.
Nor, despite putting out signals lately that they had no intention of returning
Afghanistan to the ‘harsh’ sharia laws they had imposed when they were in power
in 1996-2001, including concessions for women’s rights, they do not want their
hands tied as to the future for Afghan society. In the meantime, the Taliban
are not wasting even a minute in ratcheting up the fighting inside Afghanistan,
the latest example of which is an attack in the Baba Murghab district of
Baghdis province, in which 20 Afghan soldiers have been killed, 10 wounded, and
20-28 captured by the Taliban when they overran four security posts and
captured a large amount of weapons and ammunition into the bargain. Although
the Afghan government announced the sending of reinforcements and air support
to prevent the whole province being overrun, this incident points to two
irreducible facts. One, the Taliban are waging an increasingly successful war
while continuing negotiations. Two, the US has all but lost the war in the
strategic sense since it is by now caught in the classic bind of being torn
between offensive actions against the insurgents and defensive holding of territory,
both of which are increasingly under strain. Washington has already made up its
mind to cut its losses and withdraw from what has demonstrably become an unwinnable
war with the best face-saving on offer. That poses new questions and dilemmas
for the Afghan people and the region, particularly Pakistan, as to what will
fill the void left behind by the retreating US.
No comments:
Post a Comment