Of debacles and
more
Rashed Rahman
Barely a month
in office the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) government appears to lurch from
one embarrassment to the next. To be charitable, it is early days and the
government seems to be on a learning curve. However, there is an undeniable air
of acting without forethought and proper planning and then beating a hasty
retreat (U-turn).
The latest
example of this kind of functioning is the debacle regarding the approach to
India for talks in the interests of peace and normalisation of relations.
First, the message of congratulations to Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan from
his Indian counterpart was conflated by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi
as opening the door to talks. A denial of this interpretation followed from the
Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Subsequently, PM Imran Khan wrote to
Indian PM Narendra Modi and suggested a meeting of the two countries’ foreign
ministers on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York. This
was initially accepted by India but within a day or so, New Delhi went back on
its agreement and cancelled the meeting.
Not only that,
the MEA and Indian army chief General Bipin Rawat poured oil on the fire. The
MEA pointed to the alleged killing and mutilation of the body of a member of
India’s security forces at the hands of ‘pro-Pakistan’ elements and the
issuance of postage stamps by Pakistan of slain Kashmiri militant leader
Burhanuddin Wani and others as tantamount to supporting terrorism as the
reasons for the cancellation. It then heaped calumny on PM Imran Khan’s head by
saying his ‘evil agenda’ and ‘true face’ had been exposed. General Rawat
promised retaliation and another (mythical) ‘surgical strike’ against Pakistan
to administer an appropriate lesson.
Whereas the
peace overture from Islamabad had given rise to hopes for a positive engagement
with New Delhi, the abrupt cancellation and statements that followed had their
expected effect. PM Imran Khan expressed disappointment and castigated an
‘arrogant’ India for having wasted a historic opportunity to explore the path
to peace and normalisation. So far so good, but Imran Khan being Imran Khan,
could not leave it at that. He went on to say that all his life he had “come
across small men occupying big offices who do not have the vision to see the
larger picture”. Now this could be interpreted in India as a jibe at PM Modi’s
humble beginnings at a tea stall. The problem with such statements is that they
personalise animosity and hatred instead of defusing tensions and paving the
way for diplomatic openings through sustained interaction. This may render
finding a way back from this precipice of bad vibes that much more difficult.
This
apprehension is borne out by the traditional speed with which both sides have
fallen into a familiar groove of mutual suspicion, hostility and swiftly
escalating rhetoric. It matters little who started this turn from hope to
despair once again. Given the history of tension and conflict between the two
South Asian neighbours, they tend to revert very quickly to type.
Now the
intriguing question is what persuaded the Indian government to reverse its
stance so suddenly. A reasonable assumption would be that the afterthought
flashed through New Delhi’s decision makers’ mind that even a limited engagement
of the two foreign ministers in New York may weaken their stance since the
stalling of the comprehensive dialogue in December 2015 that ‘terrorism’ and
talks cannot go hand in hand. By ‘terrorism’ is meant not only incidents inside
India like the Mumbai attacks but also the ongoing conflict in Indian Held
Kashmir (IHK). The struggle in IHK may no longer feature alleged infiltration
of fighters from Pakistani territory alone. New Delhi prefers still for
strategic and politically expedient reasons to paint the genuine Kashmiri
struggle for liberation as a purely Pakistan-driven phenomenon, thereby
ignoring and negating the purely indigenous uprising in progress for some
years.
Nevertheless, it
is worth reflecting on why on both the eastern and western frontiers (Afghanistan),
the same charge is laid at Pakistan’s door that it allows its soil to be used
by terrorists and militants against its neighbours. Whether intended or not,
some hangover of the past investment in jihad in both directions may still be
at work. Pakistan will have to take a strategic decision to forego or stop such
activities if it is to be taken at face value by its neighbours and the world
at large. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi will have his work cut out in
advocating Kashmir’s cause while defending Pakistan against these charges at
the UN General Assembly.
But the real
issue is the style of governance and decision making of the PTI government. Why
was so much haste shown in taking the initiative for talks with India without
proper homework and an appreciation of the factors that led to the December
2015 suspension by India of the comprehensive dialogue? Why were briefings not
asked for by the foreign and security establishment and Pakistan’s High
Commissioner in New Delhi regarding the way forward? Surely such internal
discussions should have preceded and informed the initiative to prevent
precisely such knee-jerk reactions that India has been resorting to since the
dialogue stalled.
Inexperience in
government notwithstanding, and in fact precisely because of this fact, the PTI
government should proceed with caution in the minefield of Pakistan-India
relations to avoid such embarrassments and rebuffs. This approach should also
apply across the board to all policy decisions. That may help avoid the disappointment
accompanying the mini-budget presented by this government that held out no hope
to the poor or the people at large. The PTI government is discovering the hard
way just how precarious Pakistan’s economic, social, diplomatic, strategic and
foreign policy challenges are. Human beings and governments composed of them
can and do make mistakes. But there appears to be no introspection and learning
from such blunders. This is steadily eroding the government’s credibility all
too early in its tenure.
In its own
interests, the PTI government needs to put its head down, burn some midnight
oil and thoroughly acquaint itself with the complexities of Pakistan’s
landscape. Failure to tackle this on an urgent basis could lead to a governance
crisis, failure, even collapse of the government. This scenario has already
become part of our evening talk show fare on television. The government stands
warned and needs to wake up to the image of floundering it is accumulating at a
dizzy pace.
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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