My Op-ed in Newsline July 2018

Who will form the government in the upcoming elections?

Rashed Rahman

General elections are notoriously difficult to call at the best of times. Pakistan’s 2018 general elections are proving even more difficult to decipher, given the interplay of so many factors. Starting from the Panama Papers case in 2017 that resulted in former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s ouster and disqualification for life, through defections from the former ruling party PML-N, to the pursuit of the party’s leaders and prominent candidates by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in corruption references, it appears at first glance that the PML-N is too beleaguered to win.

However, the victimisation narrative of Nawaz Sharif has found resonance amongst our people, whose gut instinct is to side with the underdog in our political culture. If Nawaz Sharif’s rallies, prior to his departure for London to see his ailing wife, are any guide, it appears that despite the best efforts of the establishment, the PML-N’s intact vote bank in Punjab and a handful of seats elsewhere could see the PML-N romp home on July 25. This is assuming that the polls are conducted in a free, fair and transparent manner. Were this to be the outcome, it would spell a resounding defeat for the seemingly best laid plans of the establishment.

If, however, this scenario is diluted by pre- and post-poll manipulation (as the PML-N is asserting in chorus), there could ensue a political crisis of unknown dimensions. Even if it is assumed that the PML-N is not a party equipped to sustain a prolonged agitation against a perceived ‘stealing’ of an election from it, the government that will be formed after any such controversial election will probably be a coalition carved out of a hung parliament. It is unlikely that the PTI will win a simple majority, nor will it join hands with the PPP under Asif Ali Zardari. Arguably, independents and smaller parties will act as power brokers.

Pakistan’s myriad problems, including regional and internal security, terrorism and, perhaps most crucially, the economy, suggests a weak coalition government will struggle to cope. Such a coalition will easily be controlled by an overweening establishment.