Census audit abandoned
The government has in principle abandoned the audit of five
percent of the Census 2017 blocks to check the results. It may be recalled that
when the provisional results of the census were announced last year, some
political parties, with the MQM and PPP leading the pack, objected to the
results as inaccurate. They were then mollified by the announcement in December
2017 that a third-party audit of five percent of the census blocks would be
conducted. But the Statistics Division convinced Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan
Abbasi that the audit was no longer viable as a year had passed since the
provisional results were announced and in a large and diverse country like
Pakistan, a lot of migration takes place from one region to another owing to
changing cropping requirements, weather conditions and change in livelihoods
between urban and rural areas. The international standard for post-enumeration
surveys and checks is two months, preferably 30 days. Besides, the process and
terms of reference of the audit could not be agreed, nor could the outcomes be
expected before the upcoming elections in two months. For all these reasons,
the audit had become infructuous. The prime minister was convinced by these
arguments, though not without expressing regret at the delays, but argued he
could not make the decision unilaterally and suggested the issue be placed
before the Council of Common Interests (CCI). The postponed meeting of the CCI
is expected some time this week.
The provisional census results reveal that the population
has grown by 57 percent since the last 1998 census, i.e. 2.4 percent per annum
from 132.35 million in 1998 to 207.77 million in 2017. The final results of the
census did not change much from the provisional results, a mere 60,000 or less.
However, two key outcomes of the final results stand out and could conceivably
play a critical role in future political discourse. One, the Sindhi-speaking
population of Sindh’s urban areas increased substantially, significantly higher
than other ethnic groups and all other non-Sindhi speaking groups put together.
Two, the gap between the Pashtun and Baloch population of Balochistan dropped
to less than one percent, reflecting a major demographic shift that could lead
to contention in the political sphere in future. The highest growth in
population was in the Islamabad Capital Territory (4.91 percent), reflecting
the magnetic attraction of the federal capital in the context of job opportunities.
Amongst the provinces, Balochistan had the highest growth at 3.37 percent,
followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 2.89 percent, Sindh 2.41 percent and Punjab
2.13 percent. Naturally the constituency delimitations will reflect these
trends.
What is surprising about this whole episode is the deafening silence from the parties and
individual politicians who were the census’ most virulent critics initially.
This indifference suggests that these parties and individuals were not really
interested in the accuracy of the census enumeration and the delimitation of
constituencies to follow except to ensure it did not negatively affect their
prospects in the coming polls. It appears now that they are satisfied that no
such impact is likely, hence the pregnant silence. Whether the suggestion to
abandon the audit is wise remains an open question since the reservations were
considerable and the provisional results could arguably be challenged in a
court of law. What the implications of such a legal challenge for the election
schedule might be is in the realm of conjecture at this point. It should not be
forgotten that the issue of population and its distribution throughout the
country directly affects resource allocation, in which population remains the
main criterion. At this point, the best outcome may well be the silence of the
critics translating into an acceptance of the unaudited results for the
purposes of constituency delimitations and the holding of the elections
according to schedule as any disruption at this point could derail the polls,
something no sensible person would wish at this late hour.
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