Business Recorder Editorial Jan 4, 2019

Terror threat far from over

The warnings by astute observers of the terrorism threat not to mistake the relative quiet on this front after the successful counterinsurgency operations in erstwhile FATA have come home with a vengeance in the attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) training centre in Loralai Cantonment, Balochistan, on January 1, 2019. Four heavily armed attackers were challenged at the entry point of the facility adjacent to which lie many offices and residential compounds of the security forces. The attackers then barged into another compound next to a check post and opened fire on security personnel from there. The compound was immediately cordoned off and the security forces returned fire, which led to all four attackers, including a suicide bomber who blew himself up, being killed. Four security personnel were killed and four others wounded in the exchange. Soon after the attack, personnel of the Special Services Group (SSG) reached Loralai and conducted a search operation in the area with the help of military helicopters. Although the prompt response of the security forces prevented a larger casualty count, the incident underlines the continuing threat from terrorism, particularly in and around the rugged areas bordering Afghanistan, where the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists were pushed out from FATA. It also provides a reiteration of the undeniable fact that the terrorist problem has been ‘exported’, not scotched completely. While it is not yet known if the attackers came from across the border or not, the possibility cannot be ruled out that they operated with the help of facilitators based in the area. This is the worrying aspect of the otherwise successful routing of the terrorists from their safe havens in FATA. The National Action Plan was meant to provide the follow-up intelligence-based counterterrorism actions to root out sleeper cells and remaining facilitators of the TTP. Although the terrorism front fell relatively quiet after the TTP was forced to relocate to Afghanistan, and sporadic reports speak of terrorist cells being broken all over the country, it would not be wise to lower our guard. Questions about how the armed attackers were able to approach the FC facility without being stopped earlier and further away require answers. If the terrorists were able to reach such a heavily guarded compound with ease, the security protocols for such areas, particularly near the border with Afghanistan, call for review. Irregular warriors rely on inertia and complacency creeping in during periods of relative calm to ply their deadly trade. That is where our security forces need to stay alert.

Meanwhile another concern is being voiced by the countries neighbouring Afghanistan that a precipitate US withdrawal from that country may trigger a new civil war and give rise to a fresh wave of Afghan refugees fleeing their homeland to the safety of countries such as Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian states. Pakistan is still burdened with approximately 1.4 million Afghan refugees. A fresh influx our way is more likely than not to consist of Afghan Pashtuns. The difficulty will be to distinguish genuine and innocent people fleeing to safety to save their and their families’ lives and possible terrorist infiltrators who may use the cover of the refugee wave to insert themselves into our milieu. Although Pakistan has for some time been embarked on fencing the border with Afghanistan for precisely such contingencies, it must be admitted that the poorly policed border on the Afghan side and the terrain make completely sealing off the border a near impossibility. Iran, which also houses 1.2 million Afghan refugees, will likely attract more if the situation inside Afghanistan deteriorates. US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw half the 14,000 remaining troops in Afghanistan has inexplicably come when Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is bending his back to take peace negotiations with the Taliban to some successful conclusion. The US has been reportedly facilitated by Pakistan to hold talks with the Taliban in Abu Dhabi, with Saudi Arabia being mooted as the next venue for the continuing talks. The Taliban though are adamant they will not meet Afghan government representatives. Hawks in Washington are worried any precipitate withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Afghanistan could cede more influence to Iran. As it is, Tehran is where the Taliban have been discussing the post-withdrawal Afghan scenario in their second visit so far. An Afghan Taliban victory is already creating panic inside the country. Pakistan must therefore keep its guard up in case the TTP tries to take advantage of the developing scenario.