Terrorism and nationalist insurgencies
Rashed Rahman
A grim reminder of the reduced but nevertheless continuing
threat from terrorism was provided in recent days by a car bomb in Peshawar and
firing from across the Afghan border at Landikotal. Meanwhile two bomb blasts
in Pishin and Panjgur districts in Balochistan once again turned the spotlight
on the festering nationalist insurgency in that province. Summing up the
terrorism and nationalist insurgency landscape is the Pakistan Security Report 2018 by the Pakistan Institute for Peace
Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based think tank on security and conflict in
Pakistan and the region.
First the recent incidents mentioned above. The car bomb in
Peshawar on January 5 in a market area was set off by its driver, who alighted
and disappeared from view on CCTV cameras just before an Improvised Explosive
Device (IED) was detonated by remote control. Fortunately, the casualty toll
was six people injured, including two women, but no deaths. Three stores were
damaged by the 8-10 kilograms IED, in the first such incident of 2019.
On January 6, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar terrorists attacked a checkpoint
of the security forces in the Loy Shalman area in Landikotal, Khyber tribal
district. The attack was repulsed without any casualties. This incident may
reflect the increased difficulties of the terrorists based on Afghan soil to
infiltrate into Pakistani territory because of the fencing and beefed up
security on the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa border, across which are grouped the
terrorists driven out of the tribal areas by the military’s counterinsurgency
campaigns.
The Pishin and Panjgur bomb blasts in Balochistan had
striking similarities, both in modus operandi as well as targets. In both
cases, IEDs were planted in motorcycles that were then parked either at the
offices or routes of the security forces and detonated by remote control. The
casualty toll was 12 persons wounded, including four security personnel. These
blasts followed close on the heels of the attack on a Frontier Corps (FC) training
facility in Loralai the other day in which all four attackers were killed and
four each security forces personnel were killed and wounded.
Now for the PIPS report. Its analysis informs us that there
was a decline of 29 percent in terrorist attacks in 2018. It nevertheless
regards the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its allied groups, which now
include the local chapter of Islamic State (IS), as the most potent threat,
followed by nationalist insurgent groups, especially in Balochistan. Unlike the
run of reporting and commentary on the issue of terrorist attacks, the PIPS
report argues that a distinction needs to be made and maintained between the
terrorists per se and the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan. It reminds us
that the National Action Plan (NAP) calls for reconciliation efforts with the
nationalist insurgents in Balochistan and argues against foregoing this aim or
conflating nationalist attacks with terrorism despite the nationalist
insurgents seemingly having taken a leaf out of the terrorists’ playbook in
mounting suicide attacks. The argument has merit since, unlike the fanatical
fundamentalist terrorists, the nationalist insurgency in Balochistan is
essentially a political issue based on a sense of grievance by the Baloch on
their treatment at the hands of the Pakistani state since Independence and
deprivation of their legitimate share in the mineral and other natural resources
of the province. The parameters of this issue offer scope for solutions within
the four corners of the Constitution and law on the basis of provincial
autonomy (largely conceded already under the 18th Amendment but
awaiting proper implementation), unlike the track record of failed
reconciliation attempts with the fundamentalist terrorist groups, who finally
had to be driven out of their bases in the tribal areas and across the border
into Afghanistan by means of the military’s counterinsurgency campaigns in
erstwhile FATA.
Any attempt at mainstreaming terrorist outfits, the report
continues, should be undertaken through a proper mechanism so as not to be seen
as excluding those already mainstreamed. This recommendation is difficult to
swallow since the so-called ‘mainstreaming’ project has simply translated in
practice into banned terrorist outfits reinventing themselves with new names,
being allowed thereby to function openly, and even participate in elections.
The 2018 elections in particular showed the outcome of such efforts in proscribed
extremist organisations under new banners running in and even winning some
seats. What this does is confer an aura of legitimacy under the camouflage of
changed names on banned terrorist outfits.
The good news the report delivers is that terrorist and
nationalist groups carried out 262 attacks in 2018, including 19 suicide and
gun-and-suicide coordinated attacks, killing 595 people and wounding 1,030. This
represents a 29 percent decline in such attacks compared to 2017. Of these 262
attacks, 171 or over 65 percent were carried out by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan
(TTP), its splinter groups (mainly Jamaatul Ahrar), Hizbul Ahrar and other
groups with similar aims as TTP and Islamic State (IS), killing 449 people
(over 75 percent of the total killed of 595). The other contributory factor was
11 sectarian attacks that killed 50 people and wounded 45. Nationalist
insurgent groups, mostly in Balochistan followed by a few in Sindh, carried out
80 attacks with a death toll of 96 people.
More than half of all attacks, about 136, hit security and
law enforcement agencies (LEAs). In turn the security forces and LEAs killed
120 militants in 2018 compared to 524 in 2017 in 31 military operations in
addition to 22 armed clashes across the four provinces. Unfortunately we do not
have a breakdown of these figures to distinguish between terrorists and nationalist
insurgents.
Another factor of concern was 24 attacks on political leaders
and workers in which 218 people were killed and 394 wounded. The deadliest of
these targeted attacks occurred during the run-up to the 2018 elections.
The report also notes 131 cross-border attacks from
Afghanistan, India and Iran, claiming 111 lives and wounding 290. The inclusion
of India in this regard is puzzling, unless the report is lending credence to
India’s claim of surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir,
although even that is untenable in the face of India so far only claiming one
such strike in 2016, a claim refuted and disputed by Pakistan.
The report says Balochistan remains the centre of conflict. The
province’s tally of deaths is 354, which represents 59 percent of the total
countrywide toll. Two attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) stand
out for targeting Chinese workers and diplomats. However, the report cautions
that while groups like TTP and IS carried out less attacks in Balochistan, the
death toll was far higher. Not surprisingly, the report notes that Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KP), including the tribal areas, faced the highest number of
terrorist attacks compared to all other regions of the country.
The report says Pakistan is struggling to convince the world
of its bona fides in the anti-terrorism war. Pakistan’s allowing the banned
terrorist outfits to resurrect themselves under different banners and enter the
mainstream of national life and politics has much to do with that. The report
recommends removing all ambiguity in this matter, making any process to this
end inclusive, led by parliament, which should define the criteria for
mainstreaming such groups. This exercise could also strengthen Pakistan’s
efforts to meet the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF’s) demands regarding
the status of banned terrorist outfits.
The real worry now is the fallout of US President Donald
Trump’s declared intent to quit Afghanistan. With the negotiations between the
US and the Afghan Taliban still a long way from resolution, including the
latter’s acceptance of the Kabul government as a possible peace partner, the
consequences of a US withdrawal could be severe. These could include an
outright Taliban capture of power, setting off potentially a new civil war and
a fresh wave of refugees into neighbouring countries like Pakistan and Iran.
Much food for thought.
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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