Taliban show of
strength
While the siege
of Ghazni continues amidst heavy fighting in eastern Afghanistan since August
9, 2018, the Taliban have used the stretched deployment of the Afghan military
and security forces and US air support in defence of the strategic city on the
main Kabul-Kandahar highway to overrun an army base in Ghormach district in the
northern Faryab province. These are classic guerrilla tactics, employing a
‘feint in the east to attack in the north’. However, the Ghazni attack is proving
more than a mere feint. The surrounding districts of Ghazni are claimed by the Taliban
to be in their control, although Afghan government and US sources say they are
‘contested’. From that base, the Taliban have mounted a massive attack on the
city, breaking through many of its defences and capturing buildings or
inserting themselves into citizens’ homes to conduct their ongoing operations. Afghan
government forces, with US air support, are engaged in a desperate battle to
expel the Taliban from Ghazni city. US Forces in Afghanistan spokesman Lt
Colonel Martin O’Donnell revealed the terror and harassment Taliban fighters
had inflicted on the helpless denizens of Ghazni. He said the Taliban, who falsely
and repeatedly claim they do not target civilians, have executed innocents,
destroyed homes, burnt a market and created a potential humanitarian crisis
with this attack. The UN said unverified reports put civilian casualties at
more than 100, with residents also at risk from US air strikes (the Taliban
fighters having mingled amongst the populace). Meanwhile reports paint a
pathetic picture of the fate of the Faryab army base, manned by 100 soldiers.
The base defenders begged Kabul for reinforcements and air support, but were
ignored because of overstretched concentration of force to clear Ghazni of
Taliban fighters. As a result, at least 17 soldiers in the Faryab base were
killed, 40 captured, and the rest fled into the surrounding hills. This
underlines the particular vulnerability of relatively passive, defensive,
outlying small military bases.
These
developments in the battlefield amidst swirling reports of a second round of US
talks with the Taliban in Doha and a Taliban delegation having visited
Uzbekistan for a dialogue the other day, point to the increasing disarray
amongst the Afghan government forces and US policy circles. Ghazni’s strategic
importance made it a prime target. But the attack did not come suddenly out of
the blue. It followed the creeping consolidation of control of the surrounding
districts by the Taliban before launching the final all out attack on the city,
yielding a toll of hundreds dead. Each side in the conflict has its own
assessments of the ground situation. The Afghan-US combine veers between
hawkish views of not talking to an enemy who has the military momentum on its
side to President Ashraf Ghani’s repeated calls since January 2018 for peace
talks. The Taliban on the other hand seem to see purchase in a strategy of
talking while fighting. However, they and the Kabul government seem to be
contemplating a repeat of the Eidul Fitr ceasefire in June 2018 for the
upcoming Eidul Azha. Each side took away its own perceptions of advantage from
that June break, with Taliban fighters and government security forces mingling
freely over that holiday. The government felt it could thereby reduce Taliban hostility
to itself and wean it away from war and towards peace. The Taliban are reportedly
considering a repeat performance since it gave them the opportunity for fraternisation
with the populace in the cities. However, the realistic assessment is that
despite not being able to retain the battlefield initiative because of the
contradiction between active pursuit of the Taliban and guarding vital areas,
the Kabul government is not on the point of collapse. Nor, it should be emphasised,
is it able to forge a clear military victory, even with limited US support. The
Taliban too, despite their successes, may not be allowed by a concatenation of
regional powers such as China, Russia and the Central Asian states to take
exclusive power. Talks and a negotiated settlement therefore seems the only
viable option. Despite there still being many a slip between the cup and the
lip, both sides in this long running fratricidal conflict need to be realistic
and flexible to bring an end to the bloodletting and restore a modicum of peace
and harmony to a bruised, long suffering Afghan people, with the regional
spillover of such a positive development in the whole world’s interest.
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