Conspiracy
theories
There is no
dearth of conspiracy theories in Pakistan. Nor it seems is the ‘fashion’ dying
out. The latest addition to the long list of paranoid explanations for
Pakistan’s ills is the pearls of wisdom federal caretaker Minister for Water
Resources Ali Zafar shared with us on August 6, 2018 in a press conference.
While dilating on Pakistan’s water availability and scarcity issues, Mr Zafar
coined a novel explanation for why Kalabagh Dam (KBD) could not be built till
now. He ascribes this failure to foreign involvement. This ‘foreign
involvement’ is then explained in the next breath by saying India (who else?)
is watching Pakistan’s inability to construct KBD and other dams amidst its
growing water crisis while violating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by
constructing hydropower projects such as Kishanganga and Ratle that impinge on
Pakistan’s water rights under the IWT. The worthy minister needs to be told
that not everything wrong in Pakistan is due to foreign interference. Take the
case of KBD. While the minister alludes to the lack of internal consensus on
KBD and advocates the incoming government should strive for it, he does not
explain why this consensus has been unattainable so far. The basic reason is
the trust deficit between upper riparian Punjab and the other three provinces.
This has emerged because of a long history of sleight of hand in favour of the
former at the expense of the latter in the distribution of water. Two examples
may suffice to explain why. One, the Chashma-Jehlum Link Canal was agreed to by
Sindh and the other two provinces on the condition that it would not be a
perennial canal but only be opened during the flood season when surplus water
is available. Subsequently, it has been converted into a perennial canal. The
Water Accord 1991, a rare unanimity amongst all the federating units, laid down
that a provisional minimum 10 MAF per annum water would be released south of
Kotri to keep encroaching sea water at bay pending further studies, thereby
saving the Indus Delta and sea coast’s economy, ecology and human habitation.
This implied a steady flow of water perennially south of Kotri. Instead, what
has been happening is that the 10 MAF target is met during the monsoon and
flood season when surplus water is available, only for the Indus bed south of
Kotri to remain dry the rest of the year. This skullduggery has ruined
agriculture along the seacoast, deprived age-old communities inhabiting the
area of their traditional livelihoods and homes, and wrought terrible
ecological damage to the rich flora and fauna and animal and marine life of the
area. These two examples should suffice to explain why a trust deficit has
grown to the point of stymying consensus on the KBD. The roots of this
disagreement are domestic, not foreign. Any attempt, it has long been
acknowledged, to try and build KBD without consensus threatens the unity of the
federation. In any case, is it part of the caretakers’ mandate to kite fly
about issues they have no locus standi on?
While Chief
Justice of Pakistan Saqib Nisar is busy spurring on the quixotic venture of
raising donations for Bhasha-Diamer and Mohmand Dams, the issue of water
availability and scarcity needs soberer reflection. Big dams have fallen out of
favour globally because their cost-benefit no longer appeals. Built at great
cost, big dams have a limited shelf life because of silting and subsequent loss
of storage capacity. The ecological and human habitation damage inflicted by
big dams has also contributed to opinion turning away from the concept. Some of
the affectees of our big dams are still uncompensated and resettled despite the
passage of many years. Big dam reservoirs inevitably drown agricultural land,
raise the groundwater level, contributing to our existing blight of waterlogging
and salinity, and uproot communities from their traditional and historical
habitat at great human cost. The solution for Pakistan’s water crisis are by
now well known, as even Ali Zafar’s remarks show. Small dams and
run-of-the-river hydropower projects, lining of canals and watercourses
(yielding a saving of water equivalent to our big dams’ storage capacity and
reducing waterlogging and salinity), modern drip and controlled irrigation instead
of the traditional flooding methods, harvesting rain water; all these can
considerably mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, overuse of water
for irrigation and other needs, and wasteful utilisation of water. But the parting
advice to the caretaker minister would be to stick to his limited mandate and
leave such prickly long-term issues to the incoming and future governments.
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