Business Recorder Column July 23, 2019

And miles to go…

Rashed Rahman

The terrorist attack in D I Khan on July 21, 2019 reinforces this writer’s repeated cautions since the military campaigns against terrorist groups in erstwhile FATA in 2016 that the terrorist hydra has been rocked back, expelled from Pakistani soil (to Afghanistan), but not scotched. The D I Khan attack had all the hallmarks of a well thought out, planned manoeuvre. First, gunmen on four motorcycles opened fire on policemen manning a check post early morning, killing two policemen. As soon as the dead bodies of the policemen reached District Headquarters Hospital, a suicide bomber detonated himself, killing six people, two of them policemen, and wounding 28. Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) Khorasani group claimed responsibility. Its spokesman said the attack was in retaliation for the killing of two Taliban commanders by counter-terrorism police about a month ago. Police later arrested 16 suspects and seized some weapons.

When TTP and its affiliates in erstwhile FATA fled across the border into Afghanistan after coming under pressure from the military’s offensives, it became clear they had found safe havens there. Suspicion landed on the Haqqani Network hosting them in areas across the border under their control. The possibility of cross-border attacks persuaded the military to fence the border, something DG ISPR Major General Asif Ghafoor alluded to in Washington DC on the day of the D I Khan attack as one of the major factors in the decline of terrorism in Pakistan since 2016. But given the length and poorly policed character of the Pak-Afghan border, even fencing (expensive, only partially completed) could not guarantee Pakistan freedom from the TTP infiltrating back into the country and continuing its attacks. Nor could the possibility of sleeper cells left behind by the TTP after its exodus resurrecting themselves be ruled out. The D I Khan attack suggests both phenomena are in operation. After all, the presence of gunmen on four motorcycles and the lone (burqa-clad) suicide bomber suggests a support infrastructure without which such operations would be difficult, if not impossible.

The police arrests single out suspects belonging to banned organisations. Whether there remains a nexus between the TTP and such organisations is not known but cannot be ruled out. The police naturally hope some leads can be obtained (by the ‘usual’ methods) from the ‘interrogation’ of these suspects.

Ritual condemnations from the top leadership of the country were to be expected. But the incident may mar Prime Minister Imran Khan’s efforts to convince US investors to look favourably at Pakistan as a destination for their dollars. The DG ISPR also stressed the improved security situation in Pakistan and said the military is now focusing on Balochistan, the province being key to the success of CPEC. Whether the D I Khan attack’s timing was coincidental or deliberately aimed at queering the ‘all is well’ pitch in Washington DC is not known. But it will certainly resurrect the concerns of US investors regarding safety and security in Pakistan. Such incidents provide the TTP with relatively low cost effectiveness in creating problems of image and perception regarding Pakistan.

The D I Khan incident cannot be viewed in isolation from the strategic/tactical situation that has emerged since 2016. While the US and Pakistan seem entwined in a symbiotic embrace whose sole focus currently is finding a face saving way for the US to retreat from its strategic defeat in Afghanistan, Imran Khan’s visit to the US (claimed in media reports to have been swung by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman) carries a broader agenda of US investment, trade enhancement, and, if COAS General Bajwa’s efforts bear fruit, restoring relations (and military aid) between GHQ and the Pentagon. In a few days the results of these efforts will be known. Washington and Islamabad may have exchanged ‘favours’ before the visit to improve the atmospherics before Imran Khan meets Trump. The US designated the Balochistan Liberation Army a global terrorist group, and Pakistan ‘reciprocated’ by arresting Hafiz Saeed. These two ‘gifts’ may have lubricated the wheels of the troubled Pak-US relationship somewhat, but essentially the whole gamut of relations depends on Imran Khan’s ability to convince Trump that Pakistan is sincere in helping the US get out of Afghanistan with as much face as possible. It should not be forgotten that the US blames Pakistan for its defeat in Afghanistan because of the duality of policy of giving the overthrown Afghan Taliban safe haven on Pakistani soil to continue their guerrilla struggle, while making noises about being with the US (and gleefully pocketing the aid thrown in its direction).

The battle against terrorism is reduced, but far from over. The TTP and other terrorist groups can still revive and cause havoc on a greater or lesser scale. One terrorist attack, given the history of terrorism in Pakistan, can undo years of patient confidence building in the perception of Pakistan being terror-free. That militates against according to Pakistan the status of a destination of choice for investment dollars. While Pakistan from time to time makes noises about welcoming US and other foreign investment in CPEC, the Chinese have been discreetly silent on the issue.

Chinese interest in CPEC can arguably be best served by a more nuanced policy in Balochistan, through which the western corridor of CPEC passes and where the port of Gwadar is located. Such nuance would involve abandoning the ‘one size fits all’ approach towards non-state actors. While the TTP and other religious extremist terrorist groups owe their origins and trouble making capacity to the misdirected efforts of the military to use jihadi groups in Afghanistan, Balochistan is an old and festering political problem that cries out for a political settlement. Since the armed resistance groups and their leaders in exile do not at present seem inclined towards any such dialogue (thereby betraying the deep mistrust between the two sides), the Balochistan National Party-Mengal’s (BNP-M) efforts for the rights of Balochistan will be watched keenly. If the politically risky alliance with the incumbent Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf does not work out, it will not be a very different pattern to what has repeatedly happened post-Musharraf. If the BNP-M gambit does not come up to expectations vis-à-vis missing persons, reconciliation and peace in Balochistan, the low level insurgency seems destined not only to continue but target CPEC even more.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

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Business Recorder Column July 16, 2019

Fiascos galore

Rashed Rahman

Prime Minister Imran Khan has ordered the setting up of a probe commission to look into the Reko Diq debacle in the case filed against Pakistan by the Tethyan Copper Company Pty Ltd (TCC) before the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). The dispute alludes to the TCC case that after investing $ 220 million in exploration and preparatory activities in the Reko Diq project, its application for a mining licence was rejected by the then Balochistan government in 2011. Subsequently, then Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry’s Supreme Court (SC) declared the contract between the Balochistan government and TCC against existing laws governing such projects and was therefore illegal and void ab initio. TCC went to the ICSID with a damages claim of $ 8.5 billion. It has now been awarded $ 5.97 billion that includes $ 4.08 billion as penalty, $ 1.87 billion interest, and the balance for legal costs incurred by TCC.

The government went into a huddle after the ICSID award was announced on July 14, 2019 to see what, if any, remedies lay within its grasp. Short of the probe commission announcement though, the government seems at sea on the issue. It is premature to assess the makeup and terms of reference of such a commission if and when it is set up. Meanwhile, the only available straw to clutch at was the statement by William Hayes, chairman of TCC, that the consortium would be willing to work towards a negotiated settlement. It should be kept in mind that the award is not only the biggest in ICSID’s history, it is equivalent to the IMF loan the government has recently obtained.

Pakistan had argued before the ICSID in its defence that the TCC agreement had been obtained by the consortium through bribery and corruption. However, as our present drive against alleged corruption is showing, such charges are easier to bandy about than prove. The ICSID did not lend an ear to this unproved allegation of Pakistan and found for TCC. It is not without irony that Attorney General Anwar Mansoor’s office responded to the development by reiterating Pakistan welcomes all foreign investors. Not just that, his office described the Reko Diq gold/copper site as the “collective resource” of the people of Balochistan and Pakistan. Balochistan province has a 25 percent share in the project, with the remaining 75 percent going to the federal government and TCC. Of that 25 percent, how much would the people of Balochistan in general, and the people of Chaghai where the project is located specifically, benefit is up in the air if not conspicuous by its absence.

This should not surprise us as the history of the exploitation of Balochistan’s mineral resources is full of such injustices. Sui gas has fuelled industry, commerce and households throughout Pakistan since it was discovered in the early 1950s, but vast tracts of Balochistan still cry out for gas. Even the earlier Saindak gold/copper project was handed over to a Chinese company that has been busily exporting these minerals back home, completely ignoring the project’s thrust to set up a copper refining plant to add value for Pakistan to the raw minerals. Not a single local denizen is employed in Saindak, a pattern that informs any and all Chinese projects in Pakistan, including CPEC. So Saindak not only gives a pittance (2 percent) to Balochistan, it deprives the province of transfer of technology in the shape of the envisaged refinery and the value addition from it, not to mention the absence of any local employment, let alone skills training.

Our penchant for inadequately protecting our national interests in contracts with foreign investors is a constant in our history. The PPP government in power from 2008-13 sought to meet the major power shortage inherited from Musharraf’s regime in the short term by setting up Rental Power Plants until permanent capacity came on line. As part of this war footing approach to the yawning power gap, it engaged a ship-based power plant docked at Karachi. That contract too was terminated by CJP Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry’s SC in 2012. Now Karkey, the Turkish company that owned the ship-based Rental Power Plant, has been awarded $ 900 million in damages for breach of contract against Pakistan. Naturally, this episode left a bad taste in the mouth as far as our friend Turkey was concerned, and arguably queered the pitch for foreign investment.

One is at a loss to know whether this track record of blunders is because we lack expertise in international commercial law or is owed to vested interests that do not give a fig for national interest. Whatever the cause, the country has suffered financial penalties, loss of foreign investor confidence, and a bad name globally as a result. The impact of the TCC award for the struggling economy can only be imagined. As of now, the best bet for Islamabad is a compromise with TCC, but the latter will probably extract its pound of flesh in the bargain.

The Karkey and Reko Diq fiascos also point to the unforeseen consequences of judicial hyper-activism that became the hallmark of the restored CJP Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry and later CJP Saqib Nisar. Judges have not only to resist the temptation to see themselves as national messiahs, but also, in the light of experience, return to the time-honoured principle of judicial restraint that not only upholds the trichotomy of power in our constitutional construct, but refrains from rushing into areas such as the executive and parliament’s remit, where even angels fear to tread.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

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Business Recorder Editorial July 19, 2019

Scandalous record

Yet another tragedy struck coalminers in Balochistan on July 14, 2019, this time in the Degari field. A short circuit sparked a blaze in a coalmine in which 11 miners were working underground at the time at a depth of about 1,200 metres. As often happens in such accidents, the mineshaft filled with toxic gases such as carbon monoxide and methane, leading to the deaths of nine miners underground. Rescue operations were reportedly hampered for two days because of the presence of these toxic gases, which leads to the question why neither the mines nor the rescue teams had any gas masks and other equipment to be able to save lives. Of the two survivors pulled out injured but alive, one died while being treated at the Civil Hospital Quetta where the bodies and injured were transferred, while the other is said to be critical. It stands to reason that if the miners were trapped underground for two days in the presence of toxic gases, their deaths could be foretold. The bodies were handed over to their families who, as it transpired, were all Afghans and hence the bodies would be buried in Afghanistan. Following the tragedy, mine workers staged a protest demanding the arrest of people responsible for failing to make safety arrangements in the mines. As has become a ritual after such tragedies, Chief Minister Balochistan Jam Kamal Khan Alyani, provincial Mines and Minerals Secretary Zahid Saleem and the provincial Director General Disaster Management Agency issued the routine expressions of grief and sorrow, announced inquiries into the tragedy, vowed not to spare those responsible and offered compensation to the families of the deceased. But this ritual lip service after such accidents is no longer enough. According to the Pakistan Central Mines Labour Federation, 100-200 miners are killed in accidents throughout the country every year. The fact that this has been going on for years without any attempt at redress is nothing short of scandalous neglect.

The conditions of work and the hazards involved in pit mining of coal, the prevalent method in most coalmines all over the country, appear in sharp contrast with the Thar coalfields being developed by one of the largest companies in the field in Pakistan. The availability of capital, modern machinery and other arrangements has opened the door to local employment in this project, including the women of the area. Admittedly the Thar coalfields project involves open pit mining that does not require the presence of miners underground, which is the prevalent system in most if not all the other coalfields in Pakistan. The coalfields in Balochistan located in the Harnai, Dukki, Mach and Sowrange areas are notorious as ‘death traps’ for those who work in them. The labour for this hazardous work comes overwhelmingly from the Pashtun community locally as well as from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and now, as we have learnt in this tragedy, even from amongst Afghan refugees here. Despite the track record of frequent accidents and deaths in the coalmines, no effective steps have been taken to date to ensure loss of life is prevented. Surely, safety measures for coalmines is not rocket science. If our authorities lack the expertise, it can be obtained on a humanitarian basis from international sources. Since the miners, particularly in Balochistan, tend to be migrant workers, their conditions of life and work have failed to find voice or resonance in an effective manner. After this latest tragedy, the need for safety and welfare measures for those who toil in the bowels of the earth at risk of life and limb cannot be brushed aside any longer. And while we are at it, spare a thought for healthcare and rescue arrangements at or near the mines as an indispensable humanitarian need.

Business Recorder Editorial July 16, 2019

Judiciary’s image under siege

The Judge Arshad Malik affair has by now shaken the judicial system to its roots. The video played by Maryam Nawaz in her press conference the other day literally set the cat among the pigeons. The fact that the judge presented a mea culpa that did not deny the existence of the video, only that it had been ‘taken out of context’, did not cut much ice. It should be recalled that the NAB references were moved on the instructions of the Supreme Court (SC) after it convicted Nawaz Sharif in the Panama case and banned him from public office for life. The SC also unprecedentedly appointed a judge of the apex court to oversee the trial in the accountability court. In his affidavit before the Islamabad High Court (IHC) Judge Arshad Malik further muddied the waters by claiming, in a ‘sudden’ memory recall, that the Sharif camp had attempted to bribe and then threatened him if he did not find in favour of Nawaz Sharif. Given that the judge never revealed these pressures then, nor reported them to the SC judge overseeing the trial, leaves a big hole in his explanation. It seems appropriate then that he has been removed and sent back to his parent jurisdiction of the Lahore High Court. However, the matter cannot and should not be allowed to rest there. The veracity of Judge Arshad Malik’s verdicts has been thrown wide open to question as a result of the affair. The IHC is to hear Nawaz Sharif’s appeal against his conviction in the Al-Azizia reference as well as NAB’s appeal against his acquittal in the Flagship reference, both delivered by Judge Arshad Malik, on September 18, 2019. The SC on its part would conduct a preliminary hearing into a petition demanding an inquiry into the Arshad Malik affair today. There matters rest for the moment, but can they?

The whole affair has raised troubling questions about the credibility and fairness of our judicial system. Current Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Asif Saeed Khosa has been trying to restore some sobriety to the functioning of the judiciary after the hyper-activism witnessed in the court of the then CJPs Iftikhar Chaudhry and Saqib Nisar. Now with these developments and revelations, there are voices asking for the judiciary to deal with the whole affair and carry out whatever ‘cleansing’ is required of the judicial system that now presents the image of our version of the Augean stables. This is critical for restoring confidence in the credibility of our judicial system as well as our judiciary. The legacy that CJP Asif Saeed Khosa wanted to leave behind cannot be served unless the scandal is probed appropriately and corrective steps taken. Anything short of that will leave the respect, dignity and integrity of the judiciary in tatters because of one judge’s misconduct, an outcome no one of sound mind could contemplate.

Business Recorder Editorial July 15, 2019

Media under attack

On July 9, 2019, the federal cabinet ‘decided’ under trial prisoners or convicted felons would not be allowed to give interviews on television. Announcing this to the media after the cabinet meeting, Federal Education Minister Shafqat Mahmood trotted out arguments to assert that this was not allowed in any democracy. The reference at that point was to the interview of Asif Zardari that was pulled off the air soon after it started. If proof was required that the government meant what it said, this was provided by Maryam Nawaz’s interview also being pulled off the air soon after it started. This indicated what the government meant by under trial prisoners and convicted felons, i.e. the leaders of the two main opposition parties. Although Maryam Nawaz posted the two additional videos of Accountability Court Judge Arshad Malik on her twitter account after her interview was pulled, the developments add to the existing concerns about censorship of the media that seems to be incrementally increasing since the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) government came to office. As it is, reports are rife about the authorities leaning on critical coverage and comment in both the electronic and print media. There is plenty to be critical of the PTI government’s performance in office so far, particularly on its handling of the economy that has produced protests by the traders and complaints of massive inflation from the people. For governments claiming to have come to power through the ballot box, it behoves them to take criticism on the media or generally in their stride as part of the democratic process and not see ‘conspiracies’ under every bed. Instead, three TV channels were taken off the air for showing Maryam Nawaz’s first press conference allegedly exposing Judge Arshad Malik’s purported shenanigans. Although the channels were subsequently restored, the issue found an echo with international media watchdogs the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) and Reporters sans Frontieres (RSF), both of whom condemned the ‘climate of censorship and fear’ that had overtaken the media landscape in Pakistan in recent days. The issue also affected Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s interaction with media in London where he was attending a conference. The media boycotted his press conference and video footage showed row upon row of empty seats at the venue. As if all this were not enough, social media lately carried an online drive targeting independent journalists in Pakistan under the hash tag #ArrestAntiPakjournalists.

The regime of mainstream media strangulation and social media monitoring and interventions seems now firmly entrenched. The government keeps promising to clear the huge dues it owes to the media, which is partly responsible for thousands of journalists losing their jobs. The unpromising advertising scene these days is another factor that has persuaded the media to exercise self-censorship, apart from the heavy ‘leaning’ on independent and critical media houses and journalists. This atmosphere of intimidation and financial privation does no good to the cause of a free media, which is a sine qua non of any democratic dispensation. But arguably it does no good to the incumbent government either, since continued repression of dissident and critical voices that may not totally succeed in today’s world can only lead those in power down the slippery slope of more and more repression. Should this come to pass because of the government’s thin-skinned response to criticism, it bodes ill for democracy, a free media, and even the authors of the repressive regime themselves.