Business Recorder Editorial Sept 21, 2018

Civil service reform

Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan made a pitch to the civil servants on September 14, 2018 regarding support for his reforms agenda, promising in the process a massive turnaround in their lives and the country within two years. In return, he promised them dignity and respect by eliminating their humiliation at the hands of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB), higher pay and incentives to scotch the temptation of corruption, merit in promotions, protection of tenure and last but not least, depoliticisation of the bureaucracy. A tall order by any measure or reckoning, the PM’s appeal is a recognition of the role of the executive arm as the implementer of policy and the institution responsible for the day-to-day-running of the state’s affairs. However, in the next breath Imran Khan lamented the fact that the country was in dire straits financially, lacking money to run the government and victim of a classic debt trap in which fresh loans are required just to service the previous loans and in which the debt mountain increases over time, as has been witnessed in Pakistan’s debt trajectory over the years. The PM held out the assurance that civil servants acting in good faith who made honest mistakes would not be penalised; they would in fact receive protection and support from the government. This is a tacit admission of human fallibility, with the real protection to civil servants provided by adherence to rules and procedures that are above questioning from any quarter. The PM also admitted that quick postings and transfers were most disruptive of the work of governments. Promising an ‘out of the box’ approach to Pakistan’s problems, Imran Khan argued that a change in the lavish colonial lifestyle of the elite and bureaucracy would rid the country of debt (a thesis that is questionable at the altar of the harsh economic facts on the ground). Imran Khan exhorted his audience of select senior civil servants to consider before spending any money the majority of young people in the country looking for employment, the millions of out-of-school children, the tragedy of millions of undernourished children, the high rate of mortality amongst women in childbirth and infant deaths due to waterborne diseases. Dilating on the issue of depoliticisation, the PM promised that civil servants’ political affiliations or likes and dislikes would not stand in the way and their performance would be the only criterion on which they would be judged.

While the PM’s ideas reflect a humanitarian approach to the country’s social and health problems and a professional approach to the bureaucracy charged with implementing the government’s policies, there are a number of aspects of his speech that bear comment. First and foremost, the PM’s ‘promise’ of a Singapore model in which the bureaucrats’ pay would be so high that corruption would not enter their minds misses a very important component of the model he admires. This is the ethical dimension without which all the gold in the world cannot persuade a person in a position of power or influence to forego the potential advantages accruing to such office. And in any case, according to his own admission, the PM cannot promise this pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for at least two years. So in essence he is asking the bureaucracy to support the government through their efforts for at least two years, after which they will be richly rewarded. To many civil servants informed about the state of affairs of the country, this may sound like pie in the sky. Second, two Deputy Commissioners in Punjab have been served with notices under the removal of service law for complaining of political interference by PTI parliamentarians in the matter of postings and transfers of lower grade officers under their purview. This development hardly encourages civil servants to abide by the rules and law, a practice long since extinct because of precisely the politicians’ penchant for such antics when in power since it serves their patronage networks on which their success in parliamentary politics relies. Third, vacant posts in the federal government and its autonomous or semi-autonomous bodies alone number 170,000. This backlog has accumulated it is reported because of the previous government’s restrictions on recruitment. In addition, the quotas assigned to the provinces under Article 72, which expired in 2013, were sought to be extended by the previous government for another 20 years and a bill was moved to this effect in parliament but could not be adopted. So the current quota regime relies on a cabinet decision to continue the quota as laid down in Article 72 without constitutional cover. Not only that, the relative shares of the provinces seem tilted in practice in favour of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and against Sindh and Balochistan, a cause for much gnashing of teeth in the latter two provinces. Last but not least, the pet theme of the PTI and Imran Khan, i.e. corruption, needs to be placed in historical context to understand how quickly after independence the rot set in, starting with false evacuee property claims and escalating thereafter to the present arguably endemic proportions. There is also the current fearful atmosphere amongst civil servants to be dealt with. Some top bureaucrats have been hauled up by NAB ostensibly on corruption charges but in the eyes of many because they were considered too close for comfort to the previous government. Civil servants must be provided an environment in which they can function without fear or favour otherwise the government machinery may well grind to a halt, if it has not already. And the officers of the bureaucracy also need to change their attitudes to the citizen from treating the common man as a colonial servant of the state to a citizen empowered by all the rights provided in the Constitution. PM Imran Khan’s speech may not be sufficient to achieve the difficult targets he has outlined. One can only wish the government good luck in this endeavor.

Business Recorder Editorial Sept 20, 2018

President’s address

As is customary at the start of the parliamentary year, President Dr Arif Alvi addressed a joint session of the newly elected parliament on September 17, 2018. The government had approached the opposition before the session to ensure that the proceedings would go smoothly and without interruption. However, in a reflection of the ongoing controversy about the elections, points of order raised by PML-N leaders Khawaja Asif and Ayaz Sadiq were disallowed by Speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser who was presiding. The Speaker quoted the rules regarding disallowing points of order before the President’s speech, but this was contested by former Speaker National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq, who quoted the precedent of allowing Shah Mahmood Qureshi to address the joint session before the president’s speech. However, on the Speaker Asad Qaiser refusing to budge, the opposition walked out, with the notable exception of the PPP, which refused the blandishments of the rest of the opposition to join them. Later, the protesting duo explained to the media that they wanted to remind the government of its commitment to form a parliamentary commission to examine the alleged rigging in the elections, a commitment they had yet to fulfil. As to the speech of the President itself, it was, as it should be, basically a wide-ranging exposition of the agenda of the PTI government. Its main plank remained the overarching theme of the PTI’s narrative, i.e. corruption and transparent governance. Dr Alvi expressed satisfaction at the continuation of the democratic process that had seen three elected governments replace each other through the ballot box in the last decade and the last two Assemblies complete their tenure. Certainly there is much verity in the President’s argument if one remembers that not so long ago, democracy struggled under the shadow of the 8^th Amendment and was then overthrown by Musharraf’s coup in 1999. President Alvi asserted that Pakistan had overcome terrorism and extremism and gave all the credit for it to the military, whose sacrifices he lauded and pointed out that the Pakistani armed forces had become the leading successful military against the menace of terrorism from whom the world could learn. While there is much weight in the President’s laudatory remarks about our military, there is a risk that we may get complacent and let our guard down against the reduced but by no means completely eliminated terrorist threat, especially if one notes that the President made no reference to the National Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism that had been drawn up by the political parties in unison. The President mentioned the woes of far-flung and underdeveloped regions and areas such as Balochistan without going into the nationalist insurgency in that province, and argued that regional, economic and social inequality and disparity needed to be tackled. But the President returned repeatedly to the leit motif of his address: parochial interests and rampant corruption had brought the country to its knees. To tackle this biggest challenge, the President asserted, the political leadership needed to unite around concerted efforts to strengthen accountability, counter corruption and address the serious economic challenges facing the country by enforcing austerity and simplicity while playing its part in providing social justice, health care and education. In particular he singled out Pakistan’s youth bulge as providing an opportunity for rapid progress provided they were ensured skills and employment. He reminded his audience of the debt trap that Pakistan was enmeshed in while the needs of the populace for affordable housing, water reservoirs and conservation, the issues around energy, agriculture, mother and child health, smaller families, encouraging the advance of women and youth through economic opportunities, sports and the arts required attention.

While nothing the President said deviated from the PTI script, the fact is that the time for rhetoric has passed. The government will now by judged not on its agenda or programme but on its performance. To be fair, it is early days, but so far the atmosphere of uncertainty that surrounds the new government is owed not a little bit to its appearance of floundering now that it has come face to face with the true depth and breadth of the problems facing the country. Given the ruckus by the opposition in the joint session, which some may consider marred the solemn occasion, it would be advisable for the government to create the parliamentary commission (that it has announced to form since then) on the July 25 vote as soon as possible in order for parliament to return to normal functioning.

Business Recorder Column September 18, 2018

The dams issue

Rashed Rahman

So long as Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Mian Saqib Nisar confined himself to launching a fund raising campaign to build the Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand Dams, sceptics and critics were inclined to view the effort as a well intentioned but quixotic effort to raise the billions of rupees required for the two projects. But on September 15, 2018, during the hearing of a mineral water case, the CJP came out with the startling remark that anyone opposing the building of dams could be hauled up for treason under Article 6! On the same day, on another occasion, the CJP announced he would make efforts to build the controversial Kalabagh Dam after the two dams mentioned above.

To say that these two statements, separately and taken together, caused consternation would be to put it mildly. On the eve of his retirement, the CJP is trying to leave behind a noteworthy legacy. However, there are several levels on which his genuine efforts for building dams have raised eyebrows and questions.

First and foremost, it is the executive’s responsibility to build dams and find the resources for the task. However, Prime Minister Imran Khan has lent his government’s support and even name to the dams fund initiated by the CJP. So any possible conflict on separation of powers seems unlikely.

Second, the dams fund has so far raised Rs 3.3 billion, of which expatriate Pakistanis have contributed Rs 181 million and the rest has come from individuals and institutions within the country. Though a considerable sum, the amount collected so far appears a drop in the ocean compared with the minimum Rs 1,400 billion required for the Diamer-Bhasha Dam alone. Of this amount, land acquisition requires Rs 101 billion, the dam Rs 471 billion and the powerhouse Rs 751 billion. Experts say the minimum starting target in 2019 is Rs 30-40 billion. That appears a tall order. Perhaps even more sobering, the experts say average cost overruns of dams internationally is estimated at 96 percent of initial estimated cost. On large dams, the cost overruns can be 30-500 percent higher. Timeframe overruns on average are 44 percent (implying further rise in costs because of inflation).

The Diamer-Bhasha Dam also does not inspire confidence amongst the experts because of concerns surrounding its location in a seismically active area. The World Bank and other potential international finance institutions are wary of the project because of the ‘disputed’ nature of the area linked to the continuing tensions over Kashmir.

The literature on big dams indicates experience has depreciated the cost-benefit ratio of such dams. In the case of the Indus Basin rivers, the huge quantity of silt they bring down is a damper on the shelf life of any dam. The literature points to the costs incurred by big dams on human habitations and the natural environment as another negative factor. Given our own experience of Tarbela and Mangla, these reservations are not without merit.

Do these arguments negate the case for dams? Perhaps not entirely. Pakistan is already engaged in building smaller dams that do not have the same disadvantages. But even more important, while not entirely abandoning big dams, Pakistan needs equal if not greater attention to the manner in which we use our presently available water resources. Of the total water available, 95 percent is used for agriculture, with the traditional flood irrigation holding sway. This is wasteful and even, in some areas, responsible for spreading waterlogging and salinity, which swallows up thousands of acres of agricultural land every year. Drip and sprinkler irrigation, combined with the lining of our canals and waterways is estimated to save water equivalent to two-three times the capacity of the proposed Kalabagh Dam.

CJP Saqib Nisar’s resurrecting the Kalabagh Dam project has aroused the usual cast of objectors, ranging from lower riparian Sindhi nationalists to upper riparian Pashtun nationalists. They object to the dam for opposite reasons. Sindh complains of being done out of its water share by upper riparian Punjab over many years. In fact these complaints date back to colonial times in the 19^th century, when the development of the canal colonies in Punjab diverted the natural flow of rivers upstream for expanded agricultural purposes. Sindh also complains of bad faith by Punjab in, for example, converting the seasonal flood Chashma-Jehlum Link Canal into a perennial one.

To deal with this permanent quarrel between upper and lower riparian provinces, the then Nawaz Sharif government achieved a consensus Water Accord in 1991 setting out the provinces’ respective water shares. The Accord laid down a minimal flow of 10 MAF per year below Kotri pending further studies to examine how much water flow was required to stave off seawater intrusion in the Indus Delta and along the coastal areas of Sindh. Unfortunately, those studies were never carried out. The irrigation bureaucracy has got around the provisional 10 MAF flow south of Kotri by releasing this amount or even more during the surplus monsoon/flood season, leaving the Indus bed south of Kotri a sandy waste for most of the rest of the year. This has had devastating effects in the Indus Delta and along the Sindh coast. The flora and fauna, marine and other life and the mangrove forests of the delta have been dealt a grievous blow. Intruding seawater has ruined the rich agriculture of Badin, Thatta and other areas along the coast.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s objection to the Kalabagh Dam is based not on too little but too much water becoming available. The lake behind the dam, Pashtuns fear, will drown precious agricultural land (apart from displacing the local populace) and result in massive waterlogging and salinity in the province with limited acreage available for agriculture.

Balochistan’s interests in this matter are linked to Sindh’s, since it receives its share of the river waters from canals originating in Sindh. The three provincial Assemblies of Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan have unanimously passed resolutions against the Kalabagh Dam. Though constitutionally not binding, these resolutions reflect the breadth of opposition to the Kalabagh Dam in three provinces (Punjab stands out as the exception).

Now if we take the CPJ’s statement about the application of Article 6 to all those who oppose the building of dams seriously, not only would former prime minster Khaqan Abbasi and former leader of the opposition Khursheed Shah be hauled up, the members of the three provincial Assemblies of the past that passed the resolutions would also be indicted!

Dams may be needed. Water management, preventing wastage and rational pricing is needed even more. But to paint opponents of one or the other dam as traitors is a stretch too far.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Editorial Sept 14, 2018

Gas tariff rise deferment

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the federal cabinet deferred the proposed gas price rise amidst Sindh’s opposition and the PML-N’s criticism. The deferment is until a fresh cross-subsidy mechanism is in place with the approval of Prime Minister Imran Khan. The ECC decided to allow import of 100,000 tonnes of urea to ensure price stability of agricultural products in the Rabi season. On the gas price issue, Chief Minister (CM) Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah had called federal Finance Minister Asad Umar before the ECC meeting to convey the reservations of his government about the proposed gas price increase, arguing that a decision on gas price adjustment was outside the jurisdiction of the ECC and should be considered by the Council of Common Interests (CCI) under the Constitution. The provinces, it may be pointed out, are represented on the CCI but not on the ECC. CM Shah also pointed out that Sindh’s position on the issue was already on the record of the CCI since the tenure of the previous government. If, he continued, the federal government were to continue on its proposed course, the provincial government would have no choice but to take legal recourse. The petroleum division officers in the ECC meeting were left red-faced when they could not offer any cogent explanation why the question of the CCI and provincial objections that were part of the record in the previous government were absent from the summary seeking the gas price increase. This episode may be considered the first encounter of the new PTI government with the bureaucracy that tries to be more loyal than the king but in the process falls into “Yes, Minister” type obfuscation. As to PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif’s boast of freezing gas prices for four years and accusing the PTI government of double standards (i.e. big promises of people’s welfare and instead gifting gas, electricity price rises so early in its tenure), the government appears to have decided to build public opinion against the PML-N’s narrative and highlight the latter’s weak economic policies. In its review of the economic situation, the ECC saw the necessity to raise gas and electricity prices because of the PML-N government’s performance. Be that as it may, the present government should keep in mind the validity of the argument put forward by the CM Sindh and advise the prime minister too regarding the constitutional position regarding such decisions lying within the purview of the CCI. The gas companies are pressing for a price rise because of their growing losses, currently estimated at over Rs 156 billion on account of Unaccounted For Gas (UFG). UFG represents gas lost to theft, leakages and other technical factors. The proposed gas price increase will only partially offset the gas companies’ losses. In addition, the cross-subsidy regime needs careful handling to ensure the poor are not further burdened instead of the more affluent. The ECC may have conveniently passé the buck to the prime minister, but precedent, particularly after the 18^th Amendment, suggests the government will have to go the CCI route.

The import of fertilizer is of course a rational move, considering the shortfall of 300,000 tonnes. Three fertilizer plants have been lying idle for long because they could not be supplied gas feedstock, a raw material of urea production. To meet the difference between the shortfall of 300,000 tonnes and imports of 100,000 tonnes, two of the idle plants are to be brought back into production. The government hopes these steps will be sufficient to ensure the Rabi season crops receive adequate fertilizer, despite sniping from critics. It is a moot point why the three fertilizer plants could not be kept in production, thereby perhaps eliminating, or at least reducing, the need for imports when the external account is already under so much pressure. The present government now has to deal with this negligence and subsidise the supply of the imported fertilizer at domestic prices to ensure Rabi agricultural production meets its targets. While past governments have to shoulder their share of the blame for bringing things to such a pass, the present government must think through mid- and long-term plans to ensure the energy and agriculture sectors do not suffer such embarrassments again.

Business Recorder Editorial Sept 13, 2018

A courageous lady

What was feared by many right thinking people has unfortunately come to pass. Kulsoom Nawaz, the wife of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was under treatment for cancer in a London hospital, is no more. Tragic as her passing is, it is compounded by the fact that neither Nawaz Sharif nor her daughter Maryam Nawaz were by her side in her last moments. Both father and daughter have been granted a 12-hour parole to take part in her funeral in Lahore. Shahbaz Sharif is travelling to London to accompany her body home. The funeral is expected in Jati Umra, the Sharif family’s residence, on Friday, September 14, 2018. That implies the parole may be extended until the funeral. While the parole is a good humanitarian gesture, this same spirit can be invoked to suggest Jati Umra be declared a sub-jail for at least a limited time if not permanently, to allow the Sharif family to be together in their period of grief and mourning. Hussain and Hasan Nawaz, sons of Kulsoom Nawaz, may not be able to travel to Pakistan to attend her funeral since they have been declared proclaimed offenders by an accountability court and face arrest as soon as they land here. Condolences have been flooding in from the President, Prime Minister, COAS, politicians and others since the sad news of Kulsoom’s demise broke. This shows a civilized and human face of our society, in sharp contrast with the politically motivated statements over the past year or so when the Sharifs were accused by various political rivals of staging the ‘drama’ of Kulsoom’s illness to gain sympathy in their time of trouble. PPP’s Aitzaz Ahsan in particular stands out for the uninformed and callous statements he is on record as making until recently. He has finally apologized after Kulsoom’s passing for anything he said having hurt the family. If only he had used more wisdom in separating political contention from humanitarian considerations. Many others, Imran Khan downwards, had also made scathing remarks about Kulsoom’s illness, for which they have not uttered a word of apology, not even when condoling her death and praising her for sterling qualities of head and heart.

An educated, brave but retiring personality, Kulsoom Nawaz rose to the challenge when her husband was incarcerated in 1999 following General Musharraf’s coup. She led protests, defied the authorities in sterling fashion, and helped guide the PML-N at a time when its leaders were behind bars. Not only did she hold the PML-N together after the Sharifs were sent into exile in Saudi Arabia, she cemented the opposition in the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) to struggle against Musharraf’s military regime. She was also instrumental in reconciling her party with Benazir Bhutto’s PPP, a move that led to the signing of the Charter of Democracy between the two parties in London in exile. When Nawaz Sharif was disqualified last year and had to vacate his National Assembly seat, Kulsoom Nawaz was entered as the PML-N’s candidate in the by-election in the Sharifs’ home constituency of NA-120. Although she could not participate in the election campaign as she was by then under treatment for cancer in London, her daughter Maryam ran a successful campaign to see her elected. Unfortunately, because of her absence, Kulsoom was unable to take the oath to enter the previous parliament. Kulsoom Nawaz will long be remembered as an educated but modest, traditional wife who stood by her husband through thick and thin and proved a strong and inspiring leader in periods of adversity. It is unfortunate to recall that amidst all the calumny heaped on Nawaz Sharif regarding allegations that Kulsoom’s illness was trumped up for expedient political reasons, it is also a sad footnote that the accountability court where Nawaz Sharif’s cases are being heard repeatedly denied him exemption from appearance to visit his ailing wife. In hindsight this seems doubly vindictive when he and Maryam returned from London and surrendered to the authorities after they were convicted and sentenced. Languishing in Adiala Jail, father and daughter must have been shattered and anguished at being deprived of being by Kulsoom Nawaz’s side as she drew her last breaths.