Daily Times Editorial May 1, 2015

Saudi reshuffle In an unprecedented major move, Saudi King Salman has reshuffled the deck at the apex of the Kingdom’s power structure. The reshuffle has replaced Prince Muqrin, chosen as Crown Prince by the late King Abdullah before his death in January, with Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, and appointed his young son, Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman as the Deputy Crown Prince, or second in line of succession. Both men are relatively younger than the past octogenarian successors to the Kingdom’s founder King Abdulaziz al-Saud, comprising the generation of his (many) sons. That tradition gave Saudi Arabia five kings from amongst al-Saud’s sons. This reshuffle represents the transition to a new generation. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the new Crown Prince, is the first grandson of founder King al-Saud. Given that Nayef is 55 and Mohammed bin Salman is just 30, the announcement appears to have settled the succession issue for decades to come. Not only that, power at the apex of the Saudi hierarchy now appears to be concentrated in the hands of the two Princes under King Salman. Their rise to power is seen to signal a tougher stance on foreign policy and continuing to keep the lid on domestic dissent. Prince Nayef has been Interior Minister since 2012, succeeding his father in that position. Al Qaeda paid him the ultimate compliment as a formidable enemy when they tried to assassinate him in 2009 when he was security chief. He escaped that attack and is seen as tough on internal dissent or attempts to subvert Saudi rule. Saudi Arabia clearly has an eye on the unprecedented turmoil roiling the region, with external challenges such as the intervention in Yemen and internal issues emanating from religious extremists’ attempts to overthrow Saudi rule in the past. The latest avatar of such extremists, Islamic State (IS), is said to be operating on Saudi soil. Recently, Riyadh announced it arrested 93 people suspected of being IS operatives. The tougher foreign policy of course is centred on the perceived growing Iranian influence in the region. In the Yemen context, the refusal of Pakistan to get involved militarily in the Saudi campaign, which has caused so much heartburn in Riyadh as well as other Gulf Cooperation Council allies, has now been translated into Pakistan offering humanitarian assistance for Yemen. Whether this will get Islamabad off the hook with Riyadh, only time will tell. Apart from these two changes at the top, veteran Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal has been sidelined in favour of Saudi ambassador to Washington Adel al-Jubeir, the first non-royal to hold the post. Even the head of the state oil firm Aramco has been shifted to Health Minister. His successor is awaited with bated breath by the oil markets, given Saudi Arabia’s pre-eminent position as the world’s largest oil exporter. All these changes presage a more confrontational foreign policy, with Yemen as the testing ground of the new direction. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has led the aerial foray into Yemen against the Houthis but seems to have come up against the fact that mere air power cannot defeat the rebels. After Pakistan excusing itself, Saudi Arabia is now training tribesmen to fight the Houthis in a new proxy ground war that could escalate the conflict, possibly even over the border into Saudi Arabia itself. The new Saudi assertiveness may also be a ploy to divert attention from domestic tensions emanating not only from the extremist threat, but also the inherent contradiction between conservatives and modern young people who are dying for change. Unemployment amongst even the educated young is high and could become a destabilising factor in future. The transition may have settled the Saudi succession for the foreseeable future in an effort to ensure stability and smooth changes, but the concentration of power in the apex triumvirate and the more aggressive policeman’s role being assumed by Riyadh in the region is a risky enterprise fraught with many imponderables that will only reveal themselves in the fullness of time.

Daily Times Editorial April 29, 2015

Questions to parties The Judicial Commission (JC) hearing political parties’ complaints and petitions regarding alleged rigging in the 2013 elections has appeared dissatisfied with the material it has received so far from the latter. Headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Nasirul Mulk, the JC says it has received 101 applications, but all the matter placed before it so far is of a generalised or generic nature and does not conform to the terms of reference (TORs) under which the JC was set up. Therefore it has given the parties a questionnaire to fill, with a set of specific questions framed according to the TORs. Basically, the questionnaire sets out three main questions, with a sub-question attached to each one of them. Given the deadline of 45 days in which the JC is supposed to come to a conclusion and present its report, the parties have been asked to fill in the questionnaire and submit supporting documents by April 29 (today). The first question is, were the 2013 elections carried out in an honest, impartial manner in accordance with law? If the answer is no, the parties are asked to submit supporting material to prove their assertion and present eyewitnesses for the same purpose. The second question asks whether the elections were manipulated in a “systematic” manner and to indicate the identity of those who designed, planned and implemented this enterprise. The third question focuses on whether the alleged rigging took place only in the National Assembly seats or both the National and provincial Assembly seats. If the former, did this alleged rigging take place in all provinces or only some? These questions are so specific and focused that the parties, in the opinion of some of the best legal brains in the country, will be hard put to it to reply convincingly to them to the satisfaction of the JC. Abdul Hafeez Pirzada, for example, representing the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), wants more time to put together the party’s submissions along with proper documentation. Now this is exceedingly strange since the PTI has been going on and on about rigging since the elections, including during the months-long sit-ins in Islamabad. While PTI’s Ishaq Khakwani tried to gloss over this matter by saying the information the PTI has gathered needs to be translated into legally sound documents for presentation before the JC, his leader, Imran Khan, insists the proof of rigging is in the ballot bags. He wants these reopened in at least seven constituencies to prove his contention. Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid has questioned this assertion by posing a ticklish question: if the proofs are all in the bags, what has Imran Khan been collecting all this while? Certainly the confused, incoherent and unpersuasive series of (sometimes contradictory) statements on the issue emanating from PTI has, if anything, eroded the credibility of the PTI case and may yet turn the party’s pleading before the JC into a nightmare from which the party may never recover. Admittedly, it is good news to hear that Imran Khan has pledged not to restart his street agitation even if the JC’s verdict goes against him, but so far, both because of the time constraint and the ‘evidence’ presented by the PTI so far, things look bleak for the party’s much hyped case. The PML-N’s counsel, Mr Shahid Hamid, argued some interesting points before the JC. He criticised the manner in which the PTI and other parties had castigated the superior judiciary, including a former CJP, as responsible for the rigging. He suggested that contempt may be attracted by such assertions without any evidence or proof. He also pointed out that the accusation of a systematic rigging plan meant the will of the electorate had been deliberately distorted, a charge so serious as to attract Article six (treason). His thrust was that such serious accusations in the absence of proof or evidence did not deserve serious contemplation. Meanwhile the JC directed the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), which has already deposed before the JC that all the allegations of rigging hold no water, to reply to the Balochistan National Party-Awami’s petition that the former chief secretary Balochistan, Babar Yaqoob Fateh Muhammad, was involved in the alleged rigging of the elections. Ironically, the officer is now serving as the Secretary ECP. The convoluted saga of the 2013 elections may be drawing to an end. If the JC is not persuaded by the nature and veracity of the matter, documents, etc, placed before it by the parties, its finding seems a foregone conclusion. Were that to transpire, the country will then be left to lick its wounds of the last two years and contemplate what has been gained and what lost in this period of relative paralysis.

Daily Times Editorial April 28, 2015

Politics of CPEC PPP co-Chairperson Asif Ali Zardari says he will not allow anyone to play politics over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This is easier said than done. People may not be inclined to ‘play’ politics over the CPEC since its importance for the development of the country is not hidden from anyone. However, this should not be taken to mean that people who have reservations or questions about the project should not have the right to voice their opinions. Serious reservations are found amongst the ANP leadership as well as the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government led by the PTI regarding the route of the CPEC and the consequential benefits and their allocation. ANP’s Asfandyar Wali has declared that the route of the CPEC is designed to benefit Punjab 70 percent and the other three provinces 30 percent. Neat as this division sounds, it has either to be established or refuted only by the facts. That is entirely the responsibility of the government. Despite reassuring statements from time to time regarding this issue by Minister of Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal, the disquiet refuses to go away. In this space we have time and again advised the government to meet these reservations and suspicions head on through the forum of parliament to allay any doubts and get the whole country behind this game-changing project. And while we are on the subject, it is important to reiterate that the critics and dissidents who differ from the officially certified truth should not be castigated in knee-jerk fashion as unpatriotic. On the one hand, as general experience and particularly ours indicates, patriotism is more often than not the last refuge of the scoundrel. We should not get carried away with ‘patriotic’ fervour to the point where we start labelling everyone who happens to disagree with us as ant-national. No national enterprise is without complexity and differing perceptions of those complexities. The objections should be taken and addressed at face value without ascribing unjustified ulterior motives to their authors. Similar remarks apply to sensitive issues like the situation in Balochistan. Whereas the troubled province has a host of issues that need addressing, there is nothing wrong in a democratic system, which we claim to be day and night, in listening to dissenting or critical views. In our history, the record shows that hindsight revealed the dissenters may have had more than a grain of truth on their side. Nobody can claim ultimate wisdom; that is why mature democratic societies lay such importance at the door of free debate. Unfortunately, it seems we have still to imbibe such wisdom. A startling and convoluted tale is unfolding before our eyes for the last few weeks. It all began with an academic discussion planned in LUMS on April 9, which got cancelled because of pressure from the powers-that-be. Since then, the not so shadowy outlines of a concerted campaign on the internet, social media and even mainstream media (electronic) has attempted to paint dissidents who raise the issue of human rights in Balochistan or other concerns about the security situation in the context of the nationalist insurgency going on there for more than a decade, as agents of foreign powers that have no place here. Although the tactic is time worn and disconcertingly familiar, it is doubly disturbing in the context of what well meaning people in this country have regarded as a slow but steady march towards an open, democratic society. Sadly, the events of the last few weeks have brutally exposed the distance between the dream and the reality. Following the encroachment on academic freedom at LUMS, Sabeen Mahmud of T2F in Karachi was assassinated as she left a discussion on human rights in Balochistan. While powerful institutions have promised support to the investigation of who is responsible, the shock waves engendered by the murder of a young woman who clearly had no political agenda or affiliation and was only attempting to create space for open debate and discussion about the arts and intellect has instilled unusual fear amongst the liberal, progressive elements in our society. Unfortunately, some elements in our ‘free’ electronic media have chosen to crawl out of the woodwork to defame, slander and commit libel against individuals they paint in the darkest hues imaginable, thereby not only violating every known journalistic precept, but arguably, in the light of what happened to Sabeen Mahmud, placing such individuals’ life in danger from unknown quarters. On the evidence therefore, it seems such elements translate ‘free’ media to mean free of all constraints, ethics, principles and the law. The spreading irresponsibility of such ‘journalism’ needs to be nipped in the bud before it destroys not only the credibility of present day Pakistani journalism, but takes a whole lot of other positive things down with it.

Daily Times Editorial April 24, 2015

Pak reassurance After a high level meeting to discuss Pakistan’s policy on the Yemen crisis, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif flew to Riyadh with COAS General Raheel Sharif and top ministers and officials on Thursday. Most observers ascribe this frequent ‘traffic’ to Saudi Arabia to the need Islamabad continues to feel to reassure Riyadh that it will stand by it in times of need. That, it seems, is proving a little more difficult than may have at first been envisaged. Saudi (and Gulf Arab) anger at Pakistan’s stance of neutrality in the Yemen conflict, flowing from the resolution of the joint sitting of parliament, does not seem to be abating. Hence the special visit of the younger Sharif recently has now been followed up by the top civil and military brass attempting to smooth Riyadh’s ruffled feathers. For the overly optimistic, it seemed as though the announcement of a halt to its air strikes and renaming its operations as ‘restoring hope’ signalled that Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies had come round to seeing the wisdom of Pakistan’s (and some other Muslim countries’) position. However, the fine print in Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a halt to the air campaign came into play just a day after the announcement of the halt when the Houthis captured an army base loyal to deposed president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi in the city of Taiz. Saudi and allied aircraft then struck the base, causing an indeterminate number of casualties. On the ground too, fighting between the Houthis and their allies and Hadi’s forces continues fiercely. Despite all the talk of a pause (if not ceasefire) making room for political negotiations between the warring factions, the ground situation is fraught and not easily amenable to a turn away from the language of weapons to the weapon of language. Desirable as it may, as often happens in such wars, a political solution remains a tough ask. Peace plans abound ad are proliferating. Oman has a seven-point one that seeks the restoration of Hadi and the retreat of the Houthi forces from the cities they have captured. That sounds like a non-starter. The ground situation has moved way beyond any such solution or even the contemplation of it. The UN and Iran want a ceasefire, followed by negotiations. This at least has some element of practicability since it recognizes the near impossibility of imposing a retreat on any side from the positions it currently holds. Again, as is the inevitable fallout of civil wars because of the collapse of anything resembling central authority or a state, the humanitarian crisis is, according to the UN, “catastrophic”. The dead number nearly a thousand already since the Saudi air offensive began last month, the internally displaced (officially) are at least 150,000, those whose lives are threatened by war as well as starvation, lack of healthcare, etc, may well be more than a million and a half. For a comparatively small and poor country like Yemen, this is not far short of Armageddon. The muscularity of the Saudi and Arab coalition response to the rapid advance of the Houthis is being ascribed to the apprehensions of Iran’s spreading influence in the region, especially into Arab countries (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon are quoted as examples). This lends itself to sectarian interpretations despite the fact that in Yemen at least, the play of contending forces is far more complex than this simple binary may suggest. However, there is talk in Arab capitals of shedding at last the security blanket of the US and assuming responsibility for their own defence and security. A joint Arab military force for just such contingencies has been mooted. Of course such ideas may take time to assume practical form. What is indisputable however, is the growing self-confidence and ambition of Saudi Arabia to translate its oil clout into military means that will allow it to lead a coalition of Arab countries to scotch any dissent or rebellion in the countries of the allies in the coalition and even perhaps further abroad. To assume, in other words, the role of the policeman not only of the Gulf but the wider region. This ambition goes far beyond the relatively simple sectarian divide and is a manifesto of pure power play. It may also be informed by the exposure of the US as the greatest military power on earth but a colossus with feet of clay stemming from eroding political will to physically (militarily) police the world, a role it took on after the Second World War and which some quote as the reason for its decline, eventual or sudden, the jury is out on. In such a volatile region as ours, let alone the world at large, countries like ours need to cut their cloth according to their capabilities and not surrender to expedient considerations that may later come back to haunt us.

Daily Times Editorial April 23, 2015

War by another name A military spokesman has announced the end of the Saudi-led coalition’s bombing campaign inside Yemen, purportedly on the request of ousted president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, whom Riyadh supports. The spokesman claimed that the objectives of the air campaign had been achieved, which he defined as removing the threat to Saudi Arabia and neighbouring countries, including from heavy weapons in the hands of the rebel Houthis. Whether the rebels or their weapons actually posed any threat to the Kingdom or other neighbours remains an open question. A more realistic appreciation of the campaign might see it as necessary to turn the tide against the advancing rebels, who at one point threatened the takeover of Aden, signalling the collapse of Hadi and his resistance. To the extent that the air strikes have left the Houthis and their allies on the back foot and prevented the collapse of the Hadi forces, the claim of ‘mission accomplished’ may be accepted. However, as the spokesman’s statement goes on to make clear, such operations can be resumed if the situation requires it. The war therefore, is far from over. To replace Operation Decisive Storm, as the air campaign was dubbed, Operation Restore Hope promises better things. The ‘pause’ in bombing may be related to the efforts to get aid into Yemen to relieve the humanitarian crisis one month of bombing has created, apart from the civilian death toll of 900. Operation Restore Hope’s mission statement includes protecting civilians (which Decisive Storm failed to do), fight terrorism (al Qaeda has taken advantage of the turmoil unleashed by the bombing to capture for the first time large swathes of territory in Hadramaut province in the southeast, including its capital Mukalla), facilitate the evacuation of the remaining foreign nationals, and intensify relief and medical assistance (the UN has been pointing to a humanitarian crisis). Unstated, however, are Saudi Arabia’s plans to intervene in Yemen with ground forces, a speculation set off by King Salman’s ordering the mobilisation of the National Guard. The strengthening of domestic security measures also points in the same direction since they signal apprehensions regarding the repercussions of a ground intervention. It should be kept in mind that Pakistan so far is following its parliament’s resolution arguing for neutrality and a diplomatic rather than military role in the conflict. Whatever anger resides in Saudi hearts over Pakistan’s unwillingness to do Riyadh’s bidding, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is paying yet another visit to Saudi Arabia today to mollify the King. While scepticism still reigns about Saudi Arabia’s ground intervention, the southern sea approaches are being patrolled by Arab naval ships backed by the US naval fleet in the area (further proof that the reports that Washington has been supporting the air campaign are true). The purpose ostensibly is to deny weapons to the Houthis through this route. While Iran has welcomed the end of the air campaign since it accords with its call for a ceasefire and negotiations as a way out of the crisis, the UN too is emphasising a ceasefire on humanitarian grounds. Riyadh should take pause and think again about any boots on the ground in Yemen, since the Houthis enjoy a formidable reputation as tough guerrilla fighters, particularly in their traditional mountain strongholds in the north. Any Saudi ground foray into Yemen, with or without Egyptian and other Arab reinforcements, risks bogging down Riyadh and other Arab capitals in a protracted war that could spill over the border into Saudi Arabia itself, apart from inflaming regional tensions. Saudi Arabia may be better served by going with the diplomatic regional and international consensus to find a political solution through negotiations amongst the rival factions of Yemen. That path would also help to understand and appreciate Pakistan’s stance, which clearly is not only in the interests of Islamabad, but Saudi Arabia and the other regional players too.

Daily Times Editorial April 20, 2015

IS arrives A suicide bombing followed by a planted bomb outside a bank in Jalalabad on Saturday that killed 33 people and injured over 100 announced the 'arrival' of Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan. The bank is where government workers collect their salaries. Obviously a queue of people waiting to collect their dues presented a tempting target for the terrorists. It is not known what if any security arrangements existed at the bank for just such an eventuality. That is not to say that the presence of security is any guarantee of safety against determined fanatical suicide bombers. But the realities of life in Afghanistan (and Pakistan for that matter) mean that any gathering in the public space offers opportunity and temptation to the terrorists. This particular atrocity stands out for the claim of responsibility by IS. Until now, claims of IS actions in Afghanistan were widely considered to emanate from former Taliban members disillusioned with their leadership. Younger Taliban are reportedly more and more inspired by IS because of its spectacular victories and capture of large swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria. Accompanying the IS claim of responsibility for the bombing came the condemnatory statement of President Ashraf Ghani, who only last month on a visit to Washington had warned that IS presented a "terrible threat" to his country. Never were truer words spoken. Pakistan too needs to wake up from complacency to the new deadlier threat posed by IS. Ominously, the IS claim of responsibility was made in the name of IS in Afghanistan and Pakistan, signalling the expansion of the group into South Asia. Federal Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar in particular needs to shed the complacent blinkers that informed his comment not long ago that there was no IS presence in Pakistan. If the old style religious extremists like the Taliban had only tenuous cross-border links, IS has demonstrated in practice in Iraq and Syria that it is no respecter of borders. Al Qaeda in the past relied on 'franchising' it's brand throughout the Muslim world but IS, having declared a millenarian caliphate, has conceptually obliterated the nation state and its boundaries. That was the thrust of Afghan military chief General Sher Mohammad Karimi's remarks while addressing the passing out parade at the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul on Saturday, ironically the very day the terrorists struck in Jalalabad. General Karimi called for sincere counterterrorism cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan to counter and ultimately defeat the menace and threat of terrorism. He cautioned against missing the historic opportunity of defeating the terrorists through joint efforts. The Afghanistan-Pakistan border situation in particular presents both threats and opportunities vis-a-vis the terrorists. The threat emanates from the bases enjoyed since 2001 by the Afghan Taliban on Pakistani soil. On the other side of the border, Pakistani Taliban have received hospitality and safe havens from the Afghan Taliban. Jamaat ul Ahrar and Lashkar-e-Islam have shown surprising alacrity in condemning the Jalalabad atrocity, perhaps for fear of the backlash threatening their continued presence on Afghan soil. The Afghan Taliban too have been quick to distance themselves from the attack, calling it "evil". For the Afghan Taliban this is standard operating procedure. They seldom if ever claim attacks in which large numbers of innocent non-combatants are killed, arguing they only attack foreigners or Afghan military and government targets. An atrocity like Jalabad is therefore an 'orphan' except in the eyes of the ruthless IS. Terrorism in the shape of IS has morphed and gone beyond the parameters of the Taliban or Al Qaeda. Whereas the IS terrorists have a headstart in transcending the confines of national state boundaries, governments in the states under attack have yet to catch up and tackle the increasingly cross-border threat jointly. Pakistan and Afghanistan, in a changed milieu of unprecedented cooperation, defined by Pakistan trying to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table (admittedly a difficult enterprise given the reported divisions within the Afghan Taliban ranks on the issue) and Afghanistan coordinating actions to counter the Pakistani Taliban on its side of the border, could show the region and the world the way forward by close collaboration and coordinated joint action against their common terrorist enemy, particularly rising IS.

Daily Times Editorial April 19, 2015

Economic corridor Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to visit Pakistan on April 20-21 in his first trip abroad this year and one that was postponed last year thanks to Imran Khan’s sit-in. There is some excitement in the air about the expectations from the trip. Federal Minister for Planning and Development Ahsan Iqbal spelt out why in a media interaction in Islamabad on Friday when he revealed the contours of what has been dubbed the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. This is a comprehensive plan that includes energy, road and rail infrastructure and other projects. The overall size of the investment package is around $ 50 billion, of which $ 35-37 billion will be for energy, and $ 8-9 billion concessional loans for infrastructure such as roads, ports and railways. The energy projects will be in the hands of local Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and the total output once these projects are completed will be 16,500 MW. Coal power projects (including Thar) will be completed in three years, green energy projects from solar and wind in 6-12 months. These would be commercial transactions, with Chinese firms extending loans to Pakistani partners, and the government inking power purchase agreements with the latter. Ahsan Iqbal pointed out that with the completion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Pakistan-China economic ties would come at par with the two countries’ geo-political ties. The Chinese lead and example in investing in Pakistan, the minister hoped, would be emulated by investors across the globe. He revealed that the government had wisely decided to upgrade the transmission and distribution lines in order to take the enhanced load. The provinces, he said, would benefit from early harvest projects of 10,400 MW. At least 10 coal-fired projects are planned. Chinese firms would offer concessional loans for infrastructure projects, spread over 15-20 years at low markup, the difference with international interest rates to be made up by the Chinese government to the lenders. Ahsan Iqbal warned that Pakistan must keep pace with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor plan or it could lose Chinese support and even the planned route. To ensure this, the Khunjerab-Gwadar route must be completed at the earliest. Since the road passes through troubled areas, especially in Balochistan, a special force will be set up by the army to look after the security and safety of the Chinese and local workers on all such projects. This issue should perhaps be viewed in the context of the killing of 20 labourers the other day by insurgents in Turbat. Not only could the Chinese and even local workers come under threat, infrastructure such as roads and railways could fall prey to sabotage activities. The conundrum of Balochistan needs to be tackled politically if such dangers are to be warded off. Such reservations aside, it is beyond question that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will be a game changer for Pakistan, the region, and the world. The old Silk Road will be resurrected in the form of a new Silk Road and even a Maritime Silk Road, which will link this region to the world, east and west. In the old Silk Road times, it not only served trade, the route brought disparate civlisations, east and west, closer. In today’s interconnected world, it is expected that these trade and economic cooperation routes will prove transformatory in terms of modernisation. China is our time-tested friend and its rise to eminence has provided us with a golden opportunity to transform our crisis-ridden energy sector, and creaking, old and decrepit infrastructure such as roads, railways, power transmission networks, etc. While the rest of the world has to chase Chinese investment, Pakistan is in the enviable position of the Chinese generously opening their coffers to us and ensuring Pakistan partakes of China’s economic success. For all these reasons, the long awaited and historic visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping is more than welcome.