Turn of the tide?
Rashed Rahman
On both sides of the political divide, the season of rallies, processions and long marches seems to have arrived. Maulana Fazlur Rehman, head of the opposition alliance Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), must be ruing the fact that he seems to have been left out of this ‘torrent’. It may be recalled that the PDM, on the verge of launching its (then) united long march was hamstrung by internal differences, especially between the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the rest of its PDM allies over the best strategy and tactics for the campaign to unseat Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan. These differences over the best course of action, i.e. prioritising the street (a long march) or parliament (a no-confidence motion), eventually led to a parting of the ways between the PPP and PDM.
In one more of the ironies that are a staple of our politics, it is the PPP that is currently on a long march from Karachi to Islamabad, a journey scheduled to terminate today (March 8, 2022) at D-Chowk, Islamabad. The latter has emerged as the preferred protest venue in the federal capital. However, reports say the Islamabad authorities have yet to give their approval for the intended venue where the PPP long march will end and a possible long sit-in will commence. In familiar mode, the ‘silence’ of the authorities has provoked PPP spokespersons to say they will hold their rally/sit-in at D-Chowk, come what may. It was expected that the PPP’s long march would be assured of an enthusiastic welcome in its (truncated) home base of Sindh, but surprisingly, its reception in its lost base of Punjab has also been very encouraging.
In the meantime, the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) has struck back in reactive mode to the PPP long march. First, PTI leaders engaged in a long march in Sindh from Gothki to Karachi, on the verge now of reaching its destination. Second, PM Imran Khan has embarked on a series of public rallies to answer his opposition critics. On March 6, 2022, he held an impressively large rally in Mailsi, Vehari district, Punjab. Unfortunately, perhaps feeling the heat from a seemingly reinvigorated opposition, Imran Khan returned to his usual rhetoric of abuse and threats towards his political opponents. Sadly, this reduction of political debate to the gutter may well turn out to be the PTI’s most lasting legacy.
Since the political narrative has as a result of this descent into insult got trapped in a binary of accusation and counter-accusation to the detriment of good sense and democratic restrained behaviour, it came as no surprise that the opposition, this time in the shape of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), took Imran Khan to task for his latest utterances and threats, describing it as ‘hysteria’ brought on by the feeling of power slipping from his grasp now that the speculations about the neutrality of the establishment have become daily fare.
The PPP says the no-confidence motion against the PM will be moved on March 8 or 9, 2022. Whether it will succeed is still open to question and doubt. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, leading the charge at the head of the PPP’s long march, has said there is no guarantee it will succeed but considers it necessary to rid the country of the pain inflicted by this ‘selected’, incompetent government. While the PPP and PML-N have attempted to pre-empt an alleged government move to send opposition MNAs abroad as part of official delegations by advising their members not to accept any such invitation, it is not clear what the attitude of the establishment is to the no-confidence move. The track record suggests the danger for the opposition lies in a repeat of the ‘last minute phone calls’ to their members that have brought the opposition disappointment and grief in the past.
Much speculation also centres on the government’s allies on whose small numbers the even smaller majority of the treasury benches in the National Assembly rests. Imran Khan has already visited the Chaudhries in Lahore and is scheduled to meet the Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) in Karachi next to ensure the support of the allies in the event of a no-confidence motion seeing the light of day.
These moves reflect a seemingly unprecedented nervousness in the ruling PTI’s ranks. If the establishment has truly turned neutral, the PTI is on its own. It is suffering from a trickle of defections such as Nadeem Afzal Chan returning to the bosom of his mother party the PPP and Sardar Yar Mohammad Rind, the parliamentary leader of the PTI in the Balochistan Assembly, having met Asif Ali Zardari and sparked off thereby the speculations of his desertion to the PPP. Ishaq Khakwani, former president of PTI’s southern Punjab chapter, may well be another candidate for leaving the party if his scathing attack on the government on TV is any guide.
Despite having its hands full with staving off what appears to be a tightening opposition noose around its neck, the PTI government continues to flounder on other issues. The PECA tweak that has elicited universal condemnation, and rightly so, has the government back pedalling furiously to avoid further damage to its image on the grounds of the draconian provisions against the media and government critics. This is just another example of the PTI government’s penchant for shooting itself in the foot. The Sales Tax refunds to the tractor manufacturing sector issue has resulted in one of the largest tractor factories, Millat, shutting down because its refunds have ballooned to some Rs 6 billion, causing it, the management argues, to lose about Rs 1-200,000 on every tractor it sells. Obviously this is not a decision taken lightly, but it reflects the complete mess the government’s handling of the economy has landed the country in. Its effect on agriculture and inflation can only be imagined.
Does all of the above justify the contention that we are witnessing a turning of the political tide? Government critics and the opposition’s hopes aside, the jury is still out. But this lends national affairs the colour of a country holding its breath for whatever may transpire tomorrow.
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