Gilgit-Baltistan’s status
It seems the government and the opposition have reached a rare consensus (or at least near-consensus) on the prickly question of Gilgit-Baltistan’s status. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan have long demanded they be taken out of the limbo in which they have been trapped since 1947 because of the Kashmir dispute. Since Gilgit-Baltistan was part of the historical state of Jammu and Kashmir, the region remained hostage to the intricacies of the Kashmir dispute pending a resolution of the conflict. This state of limbo had long deprived the people of Gilgit-Baltistan of any of the rights normally expected for the citizens of a modern state. Of late, the issue has assumed greater significance because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the geopolitics surrounding the project, given that Gilgit-Baltistan lies in the path of CPEC. It would therefore be a matter of satisfaction for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan that the government and opposition have converged on the issue of making Gilgit-Baltistan the fifth province of Pakistan, a long-standing demand of the people of the region. However, the consensus still betrays potential differences on the timing and method to be pursued for translating this aspiration into reality. For one, the five-year term of the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly and with it the tenure of the incumbent Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz government ended on June 24, 2020. Elections to 24 general seats of the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly were to be held on August 18, 2020, but had to be postponed on account of the Covid-19 pandemic. Now that the elections are planned for later this year, the meeting between a government and opposition team some weeks ago in Islamabad attained a ‘near-consensus’ on granting a provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan while agreeing to hold further consultations on the issue after the Legislative Assembly elections. This was insisted on by the opposition because any move to change the status of Gilgit-Baltistan before the elections would be read as pre-poll rigging. Also, the strategic location and nexus with the unresolved Kashmir issue rendered the matter highly sensitive, with implications for Pakistan’s case on Kashmir. It should be mentioned that the controversial manner in which India has annexed Indian Held Kashmir last year was a setback to a peaceful solution to the dispute. Knowledgeable minds argue making Gilgit-Baltistan the fifth province of Pakistan could be seen as a fait accompli and complicate the final resolution of the Kashmir issue almost as much as India’s annexation of Indian Held Kashmir.
The ‘near-consensus’ of the government and opposition was taken to a subsequent meeting with COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, where the latter threw the ball into the politicians’ court and told them categorically to sort out between themselves the matter of making Gilgit-Baltistan the fifth Pakistani province either before or after the Legislative Assembly elections. Whereas the military wants the politicians from both sides of the political divide to take responsibility for the fate of Gilgit-Baltistan, one cannot help wondering whether such a happy outcome is possible in the strained atmosphere between the government and the opposition. Pakistan People’s Party’s Senator Sherry Rehman has delivered a timely reminder of the fact that any such change of status for Gilgit-Baltistan to the fifth province of Pakistan would require a constitutional amendment that cannot be done without a two-thirds majority in parliament. Given the parlous state of government-opposition relations, one wonders if the ‘near-consensus’ can be easily translated into a real consensus. While sympathy lies with the aspirations of the people of the region seeking their constitutional and political rights, the thorny problem of the impact of such a move on Pakistan’s case on Kashmir remains a worrying afterthought.
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