Editorial September 17, 2019

Yemen war fallout

Drone attacks claimed by the Houthi rebels in Yemen have struck the world’s biggest oil processing plant in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, and the nearby Khurais oilfield. The attacks cut off 5-6 percent of global oil output, which at 5.7 million barrels a day represents 50 percent of Saudi oil production. These developments triggered the biggest oil prices surge since the 1991 Gulf War, rising 19 percent before coming down to around 10 percent after US President Donald Trump announced the release of US emergency supplies from its stocks. Oil producers say there are sufficient stocks in storage worldwide to make up for the shortfall. However, there is uncertainty how long it would take to repair the damage and restart supplies from the facilities struck. Also, traders say a long-term increase in prices may not be avoidable given the concerns that have arisen regarding the security of oil supplies. That concern is highlighted by the Houthis’ threat of more such attacks. Despite the Houthi claims and statements, US officials have blamed Iran for the attacks and Trump says the US is “locked and loaded” to retaliate. Iran has denied responsibility and defiantly said it is nevertheless ready for “full-fledged war”. Britain, despite being close to the US, has adopted a cautious tone on Washington’s hardline Iran policy, while the EU opposes it. It may be recalled that Trump had embarked last year on a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran after pulling out of the nuclear restraint deal. He also imposed severe sanctions on Iran last year to prevent the country exporting its oil. All this has raised tensions in the Gulf region to the point where concerns are being expressed everywhere. Both Russia and China have cautioned against jumping to conclusions and indulging in sabre-rattling or retaliatory measures without definite evidence or proof of Iran being responsible. The actual and looming future rise in oil prices could not have come at a worst time for a faltering global economy or indeed Pakistan’s struggling one.

Saudi Arabia is reaping the wages of its sin, along with the UAE, of militarily intervening on the side of former president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi after he was overthrown by Houthi rebels in 2015, but without any legitimate mandate from international law or the UN. Since then, the Saudi-led coalition waging war against the Houthis and their allies, ostensibly as part of the Saudi-Iranian sectarian conflict and proxy wars in Yemen and elsewhere, has devastated Yemen, turning it into the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. To the charge that the Houthis, in Saudi and US eyes, are nothing more than a proxy of Iran, it could be argued that the US-led west too supported proxies in Syria’s civil war without the same amount of indignation being heaped on them. After all, what is sauce for the goose should also be sauce for the gander. On present trends, the Yemen war seems set to rumble on, and if the recent strikes are any guide, may result in severe consequences not only for the region, but also the world, particularly the global economy if more such attacks target oil supplies. The rational solution to the power struggle in Yemen that has cost so many lives and reduced millions to near-starvation in one of the poorest countries in the world is that it should be taken out of the Sunni-Shia sectarian orbit. The UN and the big powers need to come together to find a peaceful political solution to the four-year-old conflict that places the will of the people of Yemen centre-stage and allows them, after a cessation of hostilities and the necessary arrangements are in place, to express their choice of rulers peacefully through the ballot box.