Dangerous
escalation
Things are on
the verge of spiralling out of control in the rapidly escalating confrontation
between the US and Iran. The alarm bells were already ringing when Washington
blamed Iran for the recent spate of attacks on oil tankers and other ships in
and around the Gulf. Now the shooting down of a US drone by Iran on June 20,
2019, claimed by Tehran to be in its airspace but denied by Washington that
claims it was in international airspace, have brought matters to the brink of
the outbreak of hostilities. US President Donald Trump has claimed he cancelled
three strikes against Iranian targets as retaliation for the drone shoot down
just 10 minutes before being unleashed because, as he put it, the US did not
want war and asked for negotiations with Iran on a host of issues. Any talk of negotiations
while the crippling sanctions imposed by the US after Trump unilaterally pulled
out of the nuclear restraint agreement signed by his predecessor Barack Obama,
the European Union and international organisations such as the UN and IEAE with
Iran, and which Tehran scrupulously adhered to, are still hurting Iran,
particularly its oil exports, has been categorically rejected more than once by
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. Reports speak of the Iranians receiving
a warning from Trump through Oman that the strikes were imminent, followed by
the ‘no war’ and talks message. But in a startling counter-report, it is
claimed that Trump offered Iran three strikes on ‘empty’ spaces that would
avoid casualties and damage but provide Washington with a face saving claim of
retaliation and in the process prevent any further escalation of the
confrontation. Whether this is correct or not, it may reflect Trump’s well
known position on withdrawing from the wars the US was currently bogged down in
and avoid military involvement in any further conflicts, as evidenced by his
frequent statements on the issue and his campaign promises. But the problem is
that the US President, and even more his administration, particularly well-known
hawks such as John Bolton, National Security Advisor, and Mike Pompeo,
Secretary of State, continue to send out contradictory messages regarding the
policy towards Iran. Even now, despite Trump’s stated reluctance to escalate
the standoff over Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes and its alleged support
for proxies throughout the Middle East, he has not categorically ruled out the
military option. After the shipping attacks, Trump moved an aircraft carrier
and two contingents, one after the other, of 1,500 and then 1,000 US troops to
the Gulf region. Now, despite all this sabre rattling in practice while adopting
a seemingly reasonable and peace oriented tone in public, Trump has called for
a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the crisis. That inadvertently
provides a reminder that neither the UN, nor Europe, nor indeed the world can
be seen anywhere in efforts to mediate the dangerous escalation taking place
under their noses. Iran too has sent messages to the UN Security Council and
Secretary General Antonio Guterres to take note of the situation.
One immediate
fallout of the drone downing is the decision by leading airlines to avoid the
Gulf region out of fears for the safety of civil aviation. This inevitably
means longer flight times, delays, and problems for travellers. Iran’s position
on the issue is clear. If it is not allowed to export its oil in the face of
incremental tightening of the sanctions screws, it threatens to shut down all oil
exports through the Straits of Hormuz. That implies a cut off of some 20
percent of the world’s oil, with catastrophic consequences for the world
economy. In the light of this threat that is still on the table, the present
confrontation has already exerted upward pressure on international oil prices,
a trend likely to continue and grow worse if the hostile atmosphere is not
defused. The sobering fact is that Trump has discussed the situation with Saudi
Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, whose country is considered one of the main
regional players in the Middle East theatre. The elephant in the room remains
Israel, whose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is credited with being behind
the original decision by Trump to withdraw from the carefully crafted nuclear
restraint agreement. Between regional warmongers and the hawks inside his own
administration, Trump has to tread carefully not to be railroaded into a war he
says he does not want. And the world has to shed its complacent silence on the
crisis if another catastrophe in the region is to be prevented.
No comments:
Post a Comment