Daily Times editorial Nov 6, 2009

Gas load management

As revealed by Minister for Information Qamar Zaman Kaira in a press conference after a federal cabinet meeting, the government has adopted a four-month gas load management plan. The plan envisages saving gas by cutting it off in rotation to manufacturing and the CNG industry two days a week in order to keep domestic consumers supplied. Industry sources say December-January are crunch months every year since demand rises in the domestic sector. The four-month timeframe adopted by the cabinet does not make sense in the light of this fact.
The CNG Association has outright rejected the plan, threatening to go on indefinite strike if it is not withdrawn. Some manufacturing industry sectors too have balked at the government’s suggestion that alternative fuels such as furnace oil and diesel be used on the two days supplies are suspended. The textile sector however, which was in the forefront of demands for uninterrupted gas supply to industry, seems reasonably mollified, if their advertisements in the press are anything to go by. Urea manufacturing industry has been assured gas supply as raw material, while they will suffer the same cuts as the rest of industry in gas as fuel.
Given the shortage, no new industrial gas connections will be sanctioned from December 2009 to December 2010, nor will new cities and villages be provided supply, the exception being gas producing areas such as Balochistan.
The annual winter shortage of gas only highlights a growing problem of energy shortage in Pakistan. The country still relies for up to 50 percent for its energy needs on gas. The main gas field at Sui, which still accounts for some 40 percent of the country’s needs, is estimated to run dry between the years 2020 to 2030. Some new fields discovered elsewhere in the country are still to come on line, while those in operation are still insufficient.
This situation has increased the importance and urgency of implementing the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Unless this is constructed on a war footing, the energy shortage can only grow, with crisis proportions looming by 2012. Pakistan signed an agreement with Iran last July for the import of 750 mcf per day through this pipeline, which could produce 5,000 MW of electricity. This too may be insufficient. The pipeline has been bedevilled by Indian withdrawal, price issues and US pressure to prevent Pakistan doing business with Iran. One report hints at intelligence agencies’ scepticism regarding the project, possibly because of the Jundullah complication (Jundullah is a Baloch nationalist group conducting armed struggle against the Iranian government, while reportedly basing itself in Pakistani Balochistan).
The energy scenario requires a multifaceted response. The government should implement the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project as soon as possible, take conservation measures to decrease wasteful use of energy, and induct alternative, renewable energy technology as quickly as possible. The winter gas shortage for example, would be helped immensely by the introduction and widespread use of solar water heaters. Remote communities, the electrification of which from the national grid is prohibitively costly, could benefit from solar, wind, bio-mass and other renewable energy sources if the vision and will were in evidence. Last but not least, the Thar coal field with the potential to supply all the country’s energy needs and more, should be developed on urgent basis to fuel not only Pakistan’s current energy needs, but also its future growth prospects.