Afghan war spillover
A pattern of Afghan government troops holding isolated military posts along the country’s borders being unable to sustain their defence against the gathering local strength of the Taliban and requesting refuge and safe passage from neighbouring countries is discernible since the militants began their ongoing offensive in May 2021 as soon as the US/NATO forces starting withdrawing. Just such an incident occurred on July 26, 2021 when 46 Afghan government soldiers, including five officers, deployed at a military post near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border requested refuge and safe passage from the Pakistani authorities. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Afghan soldiers arrived at the Arundu sector, Chitral, late at night. After contact with the Afghan authorities and necessary military procedures, the ISPR statement went on, these soldiers were given refuge, food, shelter and necessary medical care. The soldiers would be returned to the Afghan government in a dignified manner after due process. ISPR also recalled a similar incident involving 35 Afghan government soldiers asking for refuge on July 1, 2021, who had been similarly treated. In contrast, however, to this ‘pleasant’ ISPR statement, the Afghan Ministry of Defence flatly denied that any of their forces had sought refuge from Pakistan, adding the Afghan government had reservations about Pakistan. This may reflect the present tense relations between the two neighbouring countries, including the incident involving the Afghan Ambassador in Islamabad’s daughter, which led to the withdrawal of the Ambassador and other Afghan diplomats. However, notwithstanding the Afghan Ministry of Defence’s denial, it is worth noting that 1,037 Afghan government troops crossed into Tajikistan for similar reasons not so long ago. The emerging pattern therefore is difficult to ignore.
The Afghan Taliban, since the start of their offensive in May 2021, have concentrated on taking isolated posts and border crossings while mounting pressure on several provincial capitals. This is the classic guerrilla strategy of indirect approach, i.e. attacking the enemy at his weakest points, nibbling away at his outlying, stretched strength, while progressively tightening the noose around the towns and big cities. The Afghan government’s soldiers in such isolated posts cut off from supplies and reinforcements are forced to seek the help of neighbouring countries to save their lives. The Afghan air force is virtually grounded without US aid, spares and maintenance. Although withdrawing, the US has begun airstrikes inside Afghanistan, but it remains to be clarified whether they are hitting identified al Qaeda and Islamic State targets alone or also the Afghan Taliban. While US forces turn their backs on a country where they waged a 20-year war without end, the real test of the Afghan government they helped install and the military and security forces they armed, trained and built up during those two decades is now unfolding. The government forces seem to have responded to the Taliban gambit by a strategy of focusing on the defence of the large cities and towns. However, whether this will prove feasible once the war in the countryside rolls into the cities remains to be seen. Brave words from Kabul about retaking lost territories still have to show some concrete results.
Federal Minister of Interior Shaikh Rashid has said regular Pakistan army troops have replaced the paramilitaries along the border and its fencing is nearly complete. It also remains to be seen whether the fence can keep out inimical elements in a forbidding terrain difficult to police. The prospect of more refugees descending on Pakistan is closer than we think. Recently, amidst Taliban attacks, 22,000 families fled Kandahar. Pakistani diplomats in Afghanistan are reported as estimating one million people may be displaced in the fighting and a Pakistan government committee says half a million to 700,000 refugees are expected and this time round they should be confined to camps near the borders for security reasons. These may not be the only unwanted arrivals though. A UN Security Council report says there are some 6,000 fighters of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on the Afghan side of the border. Hundreds of anti-Beijing Muslim (Uighur?) militants lie in wait close to the Afghan border with China (Wakhan Corridor?). Despite reports of some clashes and growing distrust between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP, their relations are intact. The TTP is centred on Nangarhar province just across the border. Al Qaeda has moderated a reunification of some TTP splinter groups, which has strengthened the terrorist outfit further. All this does not bode well for the impact of the war’s spillover into Pakistan.
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