US-Iran opening
Whatever else the G-7 summit in Biarritz, France, may or may
not have achieved, it witnessed a development pointing to a possible opening
between the US and Iran to settle their differences through a meeting of the
top leaders of both countries. The credit for this ‘breakthrough’ must go to
French President Emmanuel Macron. Apparently after intense diplomacy and
consultations before the summit, Macron took the unprecedented step of inviting
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif to the summit. His appearance on the
sidelines of the summit came as a surprise, but Zarif and US President Donald
Trump did not meet (Zarif is currently under travel restrictions by the US). However,
Macron’s alacrity seemed to have produced a softening of the positions of both
the US President as well as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. In a joint press
conference with Macron after the summit, President Trump indicated his willingness
to meet his Iranian counterpart within weeks after the Iranian nuclear
programme was discussed at the summit. Contrary to his policy of maximum
pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme, including crippling sanctions
imposed after the US withdrew in 2015 from the deal restricting Iran’s nuclear
programme development and which led to tensions culminating in recent days in
an Iranian tanker being detained in Gibraltar (since released) and a
retaliatory action against a British tanker by Iran, Trump thought Rouhani
would like to meet him to find a solution to the situation. Rouhani in Tehran
defended Zarif’s trip to France and Iran’s willingness to negotiate with the US
against criticism by Iranian hardline press that saw the initiative as
betraying signs of weakness. Zarif has since embarked on a trip to Asia,
starting with China, one of the two countries, including India, that are big
markets for Iranian oil that has been affected by the US worldwide sanctions
against Iran. Macron’s deft diplomacy needs to be seen in the context of the
EU’s concern regarding Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the US-imposed
sanctions that followed, and the tense close shaves in the Gulf in recent days.
The possibility of a turn towards talks between the US and Iran was therefore
welcomed by Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, who called it “a big step
forward”.
Trump’s mercurial and unpredictable style of conducting diplomacy
has often troubled both his allies and ‘enemies’. Amongst the former, only
recently Macron had landed in Trump’s bad books for sending what Trump called
“mixed signals” on Iran. But it seemed a soberer Trump who did not react
negatively in Biarritz to Macron’s proposal of offering some relief to Iran
such as lifting sanctions on oil sales to China and India and the possibility
of a new credit line to enable exports, with Iran in turn returning to
compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump’s remarks at the summit that he
did not want regime change in Iran, instead desired a “good, really strong
Iran” but had concerns about the nuclear deal timescale, contrasted radically
with some of his past (and current) pronouncements on the Islamic Republic. An
opportunity for Presidents Trump and Rouhani to meet may present itself on the
sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September in New York. Given the
current atmosphere as reflected in the developments in Biarritz, it can only be
hoped that the good words on either side can be translated into diplomatic
engagement and a possible solution to the nuclear and ballistic missiles
programmes conundrums and help defuse the tensions over Iran’s alleged regional
‘activities’. On the last issue, if things improve between Washington and
Tehran, Trump could conceivably act as a bridge between the Gulf Arab states
and Iran to resolve their differences over regional conflicts in Yemen and
Syria.
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