Rising US-Iran
tensions
Two Saudi
Arabian, one Norwegian tanker and an Emirati ship have been damaged in
mysterious sabotage attacks in the Gulf amidst rising US-Iran tensions. Fortunately,
there were no casualties or oil spills. Condemnation from Saudi Arabia and the
UAE was expected, but surprisingly, Iran too has called for investigations,
warning of adventurism by foreign players to disrupt maritime security with
implications for oil flows. Also there are reports of drone attacks on two oil
pumping stations west of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. Attention normally has focused
on the Straits of Hormuz, the chokepoint in the Gulf through which 15 million
barrels per day pass from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran. But
these attacks appear to have occurred off Fujairah, the only terminal on the
Arabian Sea coast and which bypasses the Straits of Hormuz. Iran has repeatedly
threatened to block the Straits in the event of hostilities with the US. The
latter has of late been accusing Iran of planning attacks on US forces in the
area and used that as justification for the buildup of its sea and air armada,
including an aircraft carrier group, an amphibious assault ship, Patriot
missile batteries and, most ominously of all, B-52 strategic bombers. Details
of the attacks on the ships are sketchy, with the only hint being that the
Norwegian tanker was hit by an object on the waterline that caused a hole in
the hull, pointing to the possibility of it being a mine or some other form of
explosive. The Iranian prompt condemnation and hint that the actions may be a
provocation by some interested foreign power suggests an attempt to stave off
any suggestion that Tehran was involved. As it is, Iran is under crippling
sanctions ever since the US unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 nuclear
restraint agreement despite Iran’s adherence to the accord’s terms. The US has
tightened its sanctions regime by doing away with the waivers on Iranian oil
for some countries that were part of the accord. Further, against the advice of
the Pentagon and intelligence services, US President Donald Trump has gone
along with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John
Bolton to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, the
first time the US has done so against a part of another government. The
European Union, particularly the UK, France and Germany, have cautioned the US
against ratcheting up tensions in the area, which may result in an accidental
conflagration.
President
Trump’s election campaign was run on opposition to the US’s penchant for regime
change in countries the US felt were hostile or not kowtowing to Washington’s
will. Yet like his predecessor Barack Obama, he too has been sucked into the
vortex by the foreign policy-military-intelligence establishment in seeking the
overthrow of the Iranian regime. Mind you, Donald Trump’s wayward style of
conducting foreign policy has produced no success so far against three targeted
regimes, those of North Korea, Venezuela and Iran. However, his fumbling style
poses risks of conflagrations breaking out because of provocative actions,
sanctions and pressure against such regimes. Regarding Iran, the stakes could
not be higher. A fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Straits of
Hormuz. Any disruption of this flow is likely to hurt Europe and the rest of
the world more than the US, whose oil imports are shrinking as fracking and
other domestic sources push it closer to self-sufficiency. Iran has withdrawn
from some of the conditions of the nuclear accord after the US sanctions bit
and the EU, despite promises, has not been able to compensate for Iran’s
economy hurting. The Gulf is already an extremely volatile area, with
Arab-Iranian rivalry threatening peace and security. Now if Washington is
upping the ante, the world should not just hold its breath but exercise its
collective will to restrain the US from yet another regime change adventure
that could prove even more dangerous and damaging than the catastrophes in
Iraq, Libya and (almost) Syria.
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