Dark clouds on
the political horizon
Rashed Rahman
Eleven
opposition parties met at an Iftar
(breaking fast) dinner in Islamabad at Chairman Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Bilawal
Bhutto Zardari’s residence on May 19, 2019. If Jamiat-e-Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F)
chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman had had his way in persuading the moot to come out
in a united long march and sit-in/shutdown of Islamabad (a la Imran Khan’s dharna of 2014) immediately after Eid,
we would once again have witnessed the familiar pattern of an incumbent
government being challenged by a host of disparate opposition forces with but a
one-point agenda: remove the government. However, the Maulana is no Nawabzada
Nasrullah, that late lamented master of forging broad based opposition alliances
in our history. Therefore Maulana Fazlur Rehman had to be content with what he
could carry away from the opposition meeting. This consisted essentially of an
agreement to mount individual parties’ protests for the moment and to come
together in an All Parties Conference after Eid, to be chaired by the Maulana,
to chalk out the future course and joint strategy of the opposition for its
anti-government drive.
There may be
those, including the Maulana, who were disappointed by this ‘halfway’
conclusion or outcome to the eagerly awaited coming together of a divided
opposition, basically divided because of the history of a conflicted
relationship between Asif Ali Zardari and the Sharif brothers, despite the
Charter of Democracy (CoD) signed by the late Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif
in exile in London in 2016. At the meeting itself, both Bilawal Bhutto Zardari
and Maryam Nawaz, stepping out into a leading political role, pointed to the
fact that the CoD had facilitated the continuance of democracy in paving the way
for the peaceful transfer of power from one party to the other through the
ballot box for the first time in the country’s chequered history. The desire
was on display to broaden the ranks of the parties adhering to the CoD by
including more political parties within its fold.
Asif Zardari,
Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif have not had the easiest or
smoothest of relationships. For example, Nawaz appeared in black coat before
the Supreme Court in pursuance of the Memogate case, something he later
regretted. Shahbaz swore to rip open Asif Zardari's stomach and recover alleged
ill-gotten wealth (ironic in hindsight, given that today Shahbaz is under the
National Accountability Bureau hammer himself). The older generation therefore
carries more than its fair share of baggage from the past. This is not
necessarily baggage that has carried to the new generation poised to take over
the reins of these two major political parties. The PPP’s only hope of
resurrection lies in Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s
(PML-N’s) Maryam Nawaz represents the brightest hope on the horizon for turning
around the party’s fortunes. Neither is as tainted by allegations of corruption
as their elders. This could serve to deflect if not diffuse the criticism from
the government and its supporters that the sole purpose of the opposition
getting together is to save those in its leadership who are facing corruption
charges.
While there may
be a modicum of (unacknowledged by those accused) truth in these charges, they
have been overused by the PTI while in opposition and certainly after being
ensconced in power. Their efficacy is also wilting in the face of the
government’s disastrous performance in office over the last nine months. There
is now open speculation amongst the commentariat whether this government can
last out its five-year term and, if it does, what that may portend for the
people and the country.
Handling the
economy has proved the Achilles heel of this government. For them to argue that
they had no idea things were so bad (because, they repeat ad nauseam, of the
mess inherited from the past 10 or 70 years – take your pick) is unfortunately
only half the picture. The PTI did not know accurately how things stood not
only because they had conjured up a subjective, politically motivated and
partisan picture of the economic landscape (e.g. corruption is the main, if not
only problem of Pakistan, by which they meant the corruption of the Zardaris
and Sharifs, money laundered abroad in the billions will be recovered, overseas
Pakistanis will invest billions in Pakistan after a PTI government is
installed, and other similar fanciful slogans that had little or no basis in
reality or underestimated the challenge of proving and recovering so-called
stolen money as well as persuading Pakistanis abroad and at home to invest so
that foreigners would also be persuaded to return with their money bags to our
shores). None of this has transpired because, also, the PTI has displayed all
the characteristics of a party that is a prisoner of its own rhetoric. It has
yet to make the transition (if that is at all possible) from the unabashed, unfettered,
even wild rhetoric atop a container to responsible policy, statements and steps
in conformity with the ground realities.
The government’s
actions over the last nine months have further depleted the confidence and
ability to function with relative ease of the business community. The critical
need to meet revenue targets, if not increase tax collection, has persuaded the
government to further squeeze through raids, tax notices and sundry other
coercive measures, the existing tax filers. In the process, businesses already
reeling under the impact of the recession in the country have closed. Meanwhile
the non-tax filers are laughing all the way to the bank and at the ‘innocent’
filers who may be ruing their adherence to the law and rules. This is the
surest way to cook the golden goose. The new FBR chief at least has
acknowledged this by halting such measures.
As to the
opposition, the PML-N was meeting in Islamabad as these lines are being written
to decide its future course of action after briefing its two leaders: Nawaz
Sharif in jail and Shahbaz Sharif in London. Whether the two main opposition
parties will be able, under the generational change in their dynastic politics,
to overcome their past differences and come together to mount a concerted
challenge to the government only time will tell. However, there is another
factor that may impinge on developments. The people are groaning under the
tsunami of inflation, unemployment, lack of employment, rupee free fall that
has been unleashed in the first nine months of the government. More seems on
the cards now that the country has been all but delivered in hock to the IMF.
Whether the opposition comes out in a united movement after Eid or not will
determine the character of the response to the people’s serious difficulties.
If the movement is led by a combined opposition, there is hope it will remain
peaceful. If, however, this does not happen or fails in practice, the
possibility of anarchy, violence and even bloodshed cannot be ruled out.
In this scenario,
one wonders what the masterminds of the present dispensation are war gaming?
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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