The 2018 election
Although the final results of the general election are yet
to be officially notified by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), the outcome
seems clear. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan has pulled off a
stunning victory. Provisional results show the PTI leading in, and likely to
win, well over 100 National Assembly (NA) seats with its closest rival,
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), trailing with 60 plus. PPP comes third,
as expected, with about 30 plus NA seats. The intriguing question now is
whether, when all the results are finally in, PTI will see a clear majority or
be tantalisingly close to the magic number of 136 out of the 270 NA seats
contested. In either case, its position suggests PTI will form the next federal
government, with Imran Khan fulfilling his long-standing ambition to become
Prime Minister (PM). If it garners a simple majority, PTI will not have to look
elsewhere to form the government in Islamabad. However, even if it fails to
reach the magic number, it will be in a sufficiently strong position to resist
any outlandish demands from smaller parties and independents whose votes may be
needed for a coalition to reach a majority. This development has obviated the
concern being expressed by many commentators across the board that a hung
parliament may throw up a weak coalition government unable to face the serious
challenges afflicting the country, amongst which the economy, internal security
and foreign policy take pride of place. After the 18th Amendment, if
different parties form the governments at the provincial level as happened
after the 2013 elections, the challenge of managing the federation’s affairs
amongst the Centre and the provinces also remains a prickly one. Despite all
the criticism heaped on the powers that be before the election regarding a
queered pitch against one party (PML-N) and in favour of another (PTI), there
is no denying that there was a PTI wave during the election campaign. However,
if there was indeed a ‘helping hand’ extended to the PTI’s fortunes, the
results indicate a case once more of ‘overkill’. That reminds us of the 1977
elections, which then PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s PPP was widely accepted to win,
but which fell foul of controversy because of ‘overkill’. While the PTI camp
has been celebrating its good fortune since the night of July 25, all the other
major parties (and some minor ones) have cried foul, rigging, manipulation,
etc, rejecting the results on these bases. The most common complaint from these
parties has been the inexplicable reports of their polling agents being shunted
out of polling stations after the count began. Many complained of not being
given Form 45 showing the final count tally. The ECP has been roundly blamed by
these parties for its manifest failure to ensure free, fair, transparent
elections. The nightmare of a political standoff between the PTI and the rest
of the complainant parties therefore has arrived, as feared by perceptive
observers in the run up to the polls. PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif announced
in a press conference on the night of July 25 that he would be calling a
meeting of his party’s top leadership to assess the situation and then carry
out consultations with all the other aggrieved parties to chalk out a response
and the way forward. Essentially, the aggrieved parties have two options. They
could, if they wanted, take a leaf out of the 1977 Pakistan National Alliance (PNA)
movement against the rigged election that year and start an agitation. But
pause for thought is required when the denouement of that agitational movement,
in the shape of General Ziaul Haq’s coup and the long night imposed by him on
the country lasting 11 years is taken into account. Of course, circumstances are
not the same today. Nevertheless, this cautionary note is still relevant. The
other option is to take up with the ECP all the specific complaints regarding
polling agents being shunted out, Form 45 not being delivered, etc, while
entering parliament under protest and continuing the good fight within. Even
with the depreciated strength of the PML-N, the combined opposition would be
strong enough to give the PTI government a tough time inside the house. Such a
course would also send a positive signal that political issues and rivalries
would henceforth be fought out inside parliament and not on the streets,
thereby strengthening the former after the second consecutive transfer of power
through the ballot box.
Whatever decision the complainant parties take, severally or
jointly, there are positives to this election that cannot be denied or lost
sight of. One, the electorate has bought into and demonstrated by voting in a
large turnout the argument that the people must use their vote in the interests
of moving the polity further in the direction of a democracy. Two, despite the
horrendous terrorist attacks that claimed so many lives, including candidates,
in the run up to the polls, the day passed with relatively less violence except
for some incidents. Barring Balochistan, which suffered a suicide bombing in
Quetta, the other incidents were minor scuffles between rival party cadres and
supporters. So it could be stated that by and large the polls were peaceful.
Women voters turned out in many areas where they had previously been forbidden
to go out and vote, either by conservative parties or their families. This is a
plus that at least partially can be attributed to the wise legislation that
made a 10 percent women’s turnout mandatory for any election to be considered
valid. As to the complaints of rigging, manipulation, etc, that are once again
ringing through the overheated political atmosphere, we may like to remind
ourselves of Stalin’s aphorism: it is not those who vote who decide an
election, it is those who count the votes. To prove that Stalin’s wisdom does
not apply here, the ECP has to clear the air, address all complaints to the
satisfaction of the electorate, and prove itself a worthy institution charged
with carrying out a sacred duty to help the people choose their rulers in a
manner above question. Anything less could plunge the country into fresh
crises.
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