A controversial
election
Rashed Rahman
Before even a
single ballot has been cast in the July 25, 2018 general elections, the whole
exercise has been rendered controversial. So much so that this election is
being described as the most partisan, unfair and non-transparent in our
history. While the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and its leading family
the Sharifs feel hard done by at the hands of the judiciary and the National
Accountability Bureau (NAB), not to mention their allegations of the deep state
indulging in pre-poll rigging, almost all the mainstream political parties,
including the Left but excluding only Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf
(PTI), now are chiming in with similar reservations about these elections not
providing a level playing field to any party except the PTI.
The PML-N in
particular has had many of its candidates ‘nudged’ into defecting. The other
parties, including the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), are now complaining of
restrictions on their electoral campaigns. Terrorism that struck in Peshawar on
July 10 (killing Haroon Bilour and 19 others), Bannu (targeting Akram Durrani
who survived but four of his companions were killed) and Mastung on July 13 (in
which Nawabzada Siraj Raisani and 129 others were massacred) has added another
dimension to the troubled scenario. Claims of responsibility for these
terrorist atrocities have come from Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Daesh.
The only point of agreement between the PTI and all other political parties is
against terrorism (for a change Taliban Khan having seen sense), which is
perceived as having been currently unleashed to sabotage the elections. Across
the board (including Imran Khan) there is moaning about the failure to
implement the National Action Plan against terrorism and extremism. The country
is now paying the price of leaving counterterrorism dangling in the breeze
after the success of the counter-insurgency military operations in erstwhile
FATA. Instead, a new affliction has been visited on us in the shape of the
mainstreaming of proscribed terrorist groups and/or their co-option by some political
parties. On all other issues, this election’s divide resembles nothing more
than a fight between the allegedly establishment-backed PTI and the rest.
Nawaz Sharif and
his daughter Maryam Nawaz’s return from London, arrest and transportation to
Adyala Jail has the country in its grip, whether you are a supporter or opposed
to the PML-N. Even Co-chairperson of the PPP Asif Zardari has felt compelled to
condemn the terrorism charges framed against top PML-N leaders on the basis of
the clashes between the PML-N workers and police on the occasion of Nawaz and
Maryam’s landing in Lahore on July 13. Zardari has also spoken against the
curbs on the media and expression in the middle of an election. Contrary to
some (weak) speculations that Asif Zardari had struck a deal with the
establishment to position his party as the power broker and king maker in a
widely anticipated hung parliament to emerge from the July 25 polls, Imran Khan
through his bad mouthing the Sharifs and Zardari in the same breath has made
any ‘alliance’ between the PTI and PPP that much more remote if not impossible.
In fact Zardari has criticised Imran Khan for his constant bad mouthing of rival
parties, especially his latest gaffe of describing PML-N supporters who turned
out to protest Nawaz and Maryam’s being sent to jail as ‘donkeys’. Zardari
pointed out that the bullet (meaning terrorism) and bad mouthing (Imran) are
enemies of democracy. The PPP too has been complaining of the absence of a
level playing field, restrictions on Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s campaigning, and
the absence of effective security for the contending candidates in the field.
Meanwhile our
very own ‘Prisoner of Zenda’ and his daughter have released video messages
after being jailed. Nawaz Sharif has described the situation as one in which
the whole country has been turned into a prison, a turn when the time has come
to break all the shackles. Maryam argues her imprisonment is owed to her being
Nawaz Sharif’s daughter. Further arrests of PML-N leaders and workers are being
planned by the caretaker governments at the Centre and in Punjab. With each new
arrest, the PML-N’s narrative of giving respect to the vote will find fresh traction
with the people at large.
A considerable
body of opinion amongst the political parties with the exception of the PTI
argues that the results of the July 25 elections have already been made controversial
and have been almost already rigged. Mainstream political parties have even
taken the unprecedented step of naming names of deep state functionaries
indulging in pre-poll rigging. The PPP is yet undecided if it will accept the
results of this gerrymandered election or come out in protest. If the PML-N and
other non-favoured parties join this rejection of the results, a grave
political crisis could follow, with unforeseen consequences. Even if this
worrying scenario does not emerge, a hung parliament in which no party has a
simple majority will likely yield a weak, disparate, unwieldy coalition led by
the PTI with the support of smaller parties, independents (especially those
sporting the ‘jeep’ symbol), etc. Such a government will not be able to tackle
the serious challenges confronting the country, whether in the realm of the
economy, internal security, defence or foreign policy. If it surrenders the
last three to the establishment, its own credibility will start approaching
zero.
If none of the rival
mainstream political parties, large or small, can be enticed into such a
coalition in significant numbers, the opposition benches in parliament, with
the PML-N and PPP at their core, will make life difficult for the government
both inside and outside parliament.
The forthcoming picture
therefore is of tension, polarisation, conflict, instability and possible
chaos. Hardly a cheery prospect.
rashed-rahman.blogspot.com
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