Fresh Afghan
peace effort
Two surprises,
one after the other, have raised hopes for a peace breakthrough in Afghanistan
in the past few days, although sceptics point to many a slip between the cup
and the lip as yet. First Afghan President Ashraf Ghani announced an Eid
ceasefire, followed two days later by a similar surprise announcement by the
Taliban. For the latter, this was the first such temporary halt in hostilities
since 2001 when their regime was ousted by the US invasion and occupation of
the country. Since then, the war has shown no signs of abating or ending,
despite many efforts over these 17 years to bring to a close the longest
overseas war the US has waged. However, it may be too early to start
celebrating a turn towards peace in the war-torn land that has been
continuously at war for almost four decades. One can understand and sympathise
with the sentiments of relief expressed by Afghan people regarding the
ceasefire breathing space provided over Eid. However, the hope that this may be
the starting point of a peace process still has many question marks looming
over it. For one, the exceptions to the ceasefire on both sides are not without
significance. The US, NATO and Afghan forces stated that Islamic State (IS) was
excluded from the ceasefire and in fact their forces would take advantage of
the space provided by the ceasefire with the Taliban to intensify operations
against the growing threat from IS in eastern Afghanistan. Also, they made it
clear that they reserved the right to defend themselves against any attacks by
the Taliban. On the other hand, the Taliban excluded foreign forces from the
ceasefire and also asserted their right of defence. The precariousness of the
ceasefire was reflected in two Taliban attacks hours before the ceasefire
announcement that led to 36 soldiers and police being killed in Herat and
Kunduz. Unless both sides exercise restraint, this may be a portent of possible
breaches of the temporary peace interregnum. Whereas the Taliban have at least
committed to a ceasefire, the same cannot be said for the deadly Haqqani
Network, which in recent years has rendered Kabul a highly dangerous place
because of its spectacular attacks in the capital.
The ceasefire
announcements may well be the outcome of recent moves by Washington vis-à-vis its
strained relationship with Pakistan. Since his election, US President Donald
Trump has opted for a more muscular approach towards Pakistan, accusing its ‘ally’
of deceit, cutting off security aid and tightening the screws on Islamabad in a
number of ways, financial and other. Now, however, it appears that the US is at
the same time trying to get Pakistan on board to bring about peace and
reconciliation in Afghanistan by using its influence with the Afghan Taliban to
persuade and encourage them to engage in negotiations. The Taliban’s long
standing position has been that they will not negotiate with the Afghan
government, which they call a puppet of Washington, but only with the US. The
US’s response has been and remains that whereas they can and will participate
in any peace negotiations, they cannot be a substitute for the government in
Kabul. Implicitly, Pakistan’s formulation for peace in Afghanistan being
preferably an Afghan-owned, Afghan-led process accords with Washington’s
position. Analysts describe the temporary ceasefire as the result of telephone calls
recently between US Vice President Mike Pence and caretaker Prime Minister
Nasirul Mulk and between US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and COAS General
Qamar Javed Bajwa and the new perception emerging in Washington that Pakistan’s
core concerns have to be part of any peace process. Those core concerns may
well have changed from seeking to support the Taliban to ensure Pakistan’s
security and other interests on its western border to nudging the Taliban to engage
with the other side’s peace overtures to end the long running war that has
virtually destroyed Afghanistan and its people’s lives and arguably destabilised
Pakistan and the region. Peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan has emerged as
the best guarantee of Pakistan’s entire gamut of interests, and it is this goal
all stakeholders in the conflict must now point their compasses towards.
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