The shape of things to come The people have spoken. The results of the election are not yet fully in by the time these lines are being written, but the shape of things to come is already clear to a considerable extent. Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N has triumphed at the Centre, and this has been graciously accepted by all rivals. With 125 National Assembly seats in the bag according to the latest reports of unofficial results, the party is edging close to a simple majority of 135 seats of the 268 being contested (four seats had their elections postponed because of the deaths of candidates). If PML-N reaches that mark, a strong government at the Centre will emerge, but even if it does not, the party has enough strength to make the best choices of the options for a coalition open to it, and may not be ‘blackmailed’ by opportunists. This is important given the tough challenges that will face the new government when it takes office. The PML-N’s main rivals, the PPP and PTI, were trailing according to the latest unofficial reports at 32 and 31 seats respectively. Imran Khan’s tsunami may not have swept the board, but the PTI can derive considerable satisfaction from its showing, including, as Imran said from his hospital bed, its demonstrated capability of enthusing and mobilising the charged youth. The PPP, according to most analysts, received a well deserved drubbing, being virtually wiped out in Punjab with many top leaders losing. The PPP faces a period of introspection to examine the reasons for its poor showing. Apart from the baggage of incumbency, which arguably brought the party crashing down from its previous heights, the PPP suffered because of lack of effective leadership and the demoralisation of its rank and file that had been alienated in recent years by the indifference towards them of the post-Benazir leadership. Terrorist threats persuaded the party to run a low key, largely media campaign rather than the massive rallies for which it was famous in the past. PPP’s coalition ally ANP was also virtually wiped out, not only in the National Assembly but also in its home province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa where it ruled for the last five years. In the ANP’s case, as in the PPP’s, at the Centre, accusations and allegations of massive corruption alienated the support base. PPP has virtually been reduced to a regional party of Sindh’s rural areas. ANP’s future looks bleak when it has lost its home base. The MQM, another coalition ally of the PPP in the previous government, is being accused of massive rigging in Karachi, while the party’s defence is that of being a victim of the same. The Election Commission has admitted that it has been unable to conduct a free, fair and transparent election in Karachi and has ordered repolling in Karachi’s NA-250, PS-112 and 113. All rival parties of the MQM are pointing accusing fingers at the party for spoiling the electoral process in Karachi. Some have boycotted the elections while the PTI is protesting rigging in the metropolis. PTI is also protesting on the same grounds in Lahore against PML-N’s Khwaja Saad Rafiq who has been declared unofficially the winner. In the provinces, PML-N has unofficially won a thumping majority in its home base Punjab and will definitely form the provincial government. This will further strengthen its hands when it commands both the Centre and Punjab. In Sindh, the PPP is ahead with a simple majority, and it remains to be seen if it repeats its previous alliance to bring the MQM into a coalition. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI has surprisingly shown a strong performance and has legitimate hopes of ruling the province. However, Maulana Fazlur Rehman has, while congratulating Nawaz Sharif on his victory, suggested that the PML-N, JUI-F and PPP-S can form a coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, thus blocking the way of the PTI. This contention will only be resolved once the final official results are in and the tally will determine who heads Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In Balochistan, the turnout was lower than the national big average of over 60 percent, with the best estimates ranging around 30-35 percent. Even this could be regarded as a good turnout for the province since there were great fears and apprehensions regarding the security situation in Balochistan, with the usual cast of terrorists on the one hand and the insurgent nationalists on the other threatening voters and candidates, some of whom had been attacked in the run up to the elections. However, procedural irregularities and anomalies have persuaded the BNP-M to reject the results of the election even before they are officially declared, arguing that its polling agents and workers were denied access to the polling stations in many constituencies and therefore the election in the province was a fraud perpetrated by the security establishment that virtually runs the province. The outcome and its acceptability by all stakeholders therefore remain in doubt. Nevertheless, the PKMAP has surprisingly performed well in the Pashtun areas of the province and will be difficult to ignore in the likely coalition government to be formed on the basis of a fractured mandate. According to election observers, women voters were denied their right to cast their vote in some constituencies of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a development not surprising considering the pre-election reports of some parties ‘agreeing’ informally not to allow women to vote in some constituencies. It is for the Election Commission to take note of this negative development and offer redress. The fractured mandate anticipated even before the elections on the basis of the respective areas of strength and influence of the parties in the fray has produced a result that may give pause to some. The PML-N is only a Punjab-based party because of Nawaz Sharif’s failure to revive the party in the other three provinces since returning from exile. Such a party will now rule at the Centre and in the largest by population and most developed and strongest province. This raises questions about the inability of a party enjoying such a mandate to be considered representative of the federation as a whole. Nawaz Sharif must try and reach out to the possible coalition partners in at least Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to allay the reservations of the smaller provinces in this regard (Sindh does not offer the PML-N the same scope). The tasks confronting a federal government either solely manned by the PML-N or a coalition led by it are unenviable. The economy, particularly energy, needs immediate attention. Terrorism will remain a great impediment in persuading capital, domestic and foreign, to invest in the country. Nawaz Sharif’s perceived soft corner for the militants will be put to the test to see how he handles the security situation. This issue will also bring him into a necessary cooperation with the military, which he has reiterated in recent interviews must remain subservient to civilian authority. In foreign policy, Nawaz Sharif is expected to improve relations with India, for which a visit invitation from Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has reportedly already been received. The Afghanistan 2014 transition too looms large on the foreign policy horizon, with the relationship with Washington also needing perhaps redefinition after the US/NATO forces withdraw next year. Pakistan needs peace at home and in the region if it is to develop and prosper. We can only wish the new prime minister good luck in tackling all these thorny problems that the country has been suffering from for far too long.