Daily Times Editorial May 22, 2013

Nawaz’s ‘positive change’ Addressing a gathering of his party’s newly elected representatives in Lahore the other day, Nawaz Sharif committed his incoming government to many ‘positives’. However, no one should underestimate the incoming government’s difficulties, some rooted in the previous government’s tenure, others dating further back into Pakistan’s hoary past. Nawaz underlined his ‘100 days’ thrust to provide relief to the people groaning under energy shortages, unemployment and inflation. A ‘positive change’ is promised. ‘Change’ of course has entered the country’s political lexicon during the election campaign, with Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) Imran Khan leading the charge with his central slogan of ‘change’ without necessarily spelling out many details of the desired change or even more crucially, how to get there. Whether Nawaz Sharif’s ‘positive change’ will bring anything better remains to be seen. To illustrate, Nawaz Sharif promises a 30 percent reduction in government spending. Whether this will come from the running expenses of the state or development remains unknown. Cutting down the state’s huge expenditure on managing day-to-day operations would require a mammoth exercise across the board, including defence, with the possibility of it leading to further unemployment of those with sinecures in bloated public service organisations. It goes without saying that applying cuts to the development budget would deepen the recession and end up making recovery that much more difficult. Turning to his decisions regarding the provinces and the governments to be formed there, Nawaz Sharif accepted the PPP and MQM’s mandate in Sindh, the PTI’s in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and his party’s at the head of a coalition in Balochistan. For the first, he promised the federal government’s cooperation and help in handling the complex law and order problems of Karachi. In the case of the second, he reiterated the parliamentary convention of allowing the party with the most seats to have first go at formation of a government, a decision that knocked the wind out of the sails of Maulana Fazlur Rehman who was trying to wean the PML-N and Sherpao to his banner in KP. In Balochistan, his party’s leading role may have proved attractive to actual or potential partners as the best chance for the benighted province having a glimmer of hope that its problems would find better hearing in Islamabad. Punjab did not figure in Nawaz Sharif’s remarks because the PML-N has such an overwhelming majority in its home province as to appear unassailable. Turning to everyone’s favourite grouse, the energy deficit and incessant load shedding, Nawaz was more modest than his ‘emotional’ younger brother Shahbaz Sharif in not giving any deadline for the elimination of load shedding, instead satisfying himself with the promise to overcome it in the minimum possible time. This is wise since the complexities of the energy sector militate against any miraculous overnight solutions. The real issue though is whether Nawaz Sharif’s argument to take the Taliban’s offer of talks seriously can bear fruit in the shape of a cessation of terrorism that has not only cost 40,000 civilian and 5,000 security forces personnel’s lives and caused losses of billions of rupees but crippled the economic, political and social life of the country. It goes without saying that without tackling energy and terrorism, the economy has little chance of reviving with domestic and foreign investment having to be lured back from capital flight and shutdown in the case of the former and persuading the latter to include Pakistan in the list of desirable destinations. The terrorism conundrum is central to any solution. Reservations aside about the sincerity of the Taliban’s talks offer and their willingness to reconcile with the state and its system, this will be the space to watch in the days ahead. No one in their right mind would wish Nawaz Sharif to fail in this endeavour if it means the country can take a turn from the havoc it is suffering at the hands of the terrorists to at least the possibility of peace, development and prosperity. However, we may be excused for keeping our powder dry on this one until and unless events prove our scepticism misplaced.