Daily Times editorial Nov 21, 2009

Karzai’s second term

In a return of compliment gesture, President Asif Ali Zardari attended newly re-elected Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s swearing in for a second term. The importance of the occasion in the world’s eyes was obvious from the fact that 300 foreign dignitaries from 43 countries were in attendance. President Karzai’s inaugural speech stressed three themes: the Afghan forces would take over security duties within five years, a Loya Jirga would be called to promote national reconciliation, and corruption would be eliminated. The Afghan president may thereby have pressed the right buttons, but his words would most likely have evoked a mixture of hope and trepidation in his immediate audience as well as the world at large.
Looming over the pomp and ceremony was the shadow of the fraud-marred election, Karzai only managing to scrape through the door after his main rival, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, withdrew in disgust from the second round run-off. Karzai in his speech held out an olive branch to Abdullah, without actually inviting him to join his government. The heavy contingent of dignitaries from all parts of the world may also have wanted to send the message that whatever the misgivings about the rigging in the elections and scepticism regarding Karzai’s anti-corruption and national reconciliation sweet nothings, they were there to put the controversy about the elections to rest, pinning their hopes on a brighter future under Karzai 2.
Whatever that future holds is of profound interest and concern to Pakistan. Even if one rejects the American-speak “Afpak”, the two neighbours’ fate is now entwined as though they were co-joined twins. Events in either country inevitably have an impact on the other, given porous borders, cross-border ethnic and political affiliations and the Taliban on either side. It was therefore in the fitness of things that President Zardari used the interaction with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the sidelines of the occasion to stress that Pakistan needed to be taken on board regarding US President Obama’s eagerly awaited new policy on Afghanistan.
The ambitious goal of an Afghan security forces’ replacement of foreign troops within five years before Karzai’s second term ends still looks a distant dream. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, while reiterating and praising the will, resolve and ability of the law enforcement agencies to defend Pakistan, nevertheless conceded inadequate capacity, for which he appealed to the world for help. If Pakistan, where the state is still intact and relatively robust is beset with such difficulties, it does not take much imagination to understand how much more difficult the task is in Afghanistan, a country battered and ruined by almost four decades of war. Gilani estimates that task would require Rs 25 billion. What price Afghan indigenous capacity?
The signals emanating from Washington and NATO capitals point in the direction of an exit strategy for foreign forces from Afghanistan as the local forces are beefed up and trained. The track record in this respect of the last eight years does not inspire confidence, partly because of the inadequate focus by the US and NATO, partly because of the poor quality of the Afghan forces so far. Nevertheless, if an exit strategy is on the cards in western capitals, the task of reconstructing an Afghan army and police forces assumes critical importance. Resources and will are required in equal measure if the exit of foreign forces is not to result in a takeover by the Taliban again, a prospect that should send shivers down Pakistan’s spine, given that a triumphant Taliban in power in Kabul once more may be tempted to export their jihadi ideology to their neighbours, especially Pakistan, which by now is afflicted already with a local Taliban phenomenon.