Business Recorder Editorial Nov 9, 2018

Tackling profound challenge

The government’s handling of the Tehreek-e-Labaiq Pakistan’s (TLP’s) protests against the acquittal by the Supreme Court of Aasia Bibi has come in for stick across a wide range of opinion. This critique echoed in the National Assembly on November 5, 2018 when opposition PPP member Shazia Marri compared the agreement between the government and the TLP to the surrender at the then Dacca in 1971, linking Prime Minister Imran Khan’s surname with that of General Niazi. This infuriated some PTI members, who kicked up a rumpus that was joined by other PPP members. Soon a verbal abuse match between two PPP and PTI members descended into a near brawl. Since the party leaderships seemed unable to control their members inclined towards fisticuffs to make their case, and instructions to security staff to expel the most recalcitrant members proved difficult, the Speaker adjourned the session for the day. Reports on the following day indicated the Speaker had brokered a resolution in his chambers with the help of government and opposition leaders. So far so good. But the fracas has thrown into relief once again just how short-lived the convergence between the government and opposition on the challenge thrown up by the extremists of the TLP and others to the state’s writ was. At the first opportunity to discuss the issue on the floor of the house, if not earlier in the public space, the two sides fell out and into their well known traditional trenches. The seriousness of the crisis, where the whole country was held hostage to the threats and violence of some few thousand extremists on the roads and highways, did not seem to concern the divided political class. This was a moment to rise above petty political rivalries, cooperate against the challenge to the state’s writ (including insults and threats to institutions such as the judiciary and military), and show the people of this country and the world that our leaders across the board were responsible, wise hands on the tiller, who would help us navigate these choppy waters to safe shores. Instead, the worst side of the political class was on display, albeit the troublemakers were few but the leaderships seemed helpless to knock some sense into them.

Meanwhile the arrests of some 1,800 miscreants responsible for violence, intimidation and destruction of public and private property is part of the government’s ongoing ‘partial’ response to the mayhem unleashed by these extremists. What is conspicuous by its absence is action according to the law against the leaders who instigated the whole episode and whose attempts to distance themselves from those of their followers who carried out their hate agenda to the letter hold little if any water. But to get there, and get there we must if the state is to be rescued from the laughing stock it became because of the three days on which the purveyors of extremism and hate unleashed their violent activities, the government needs reassurance that it will not have to keep looking over its shoulder at the sniping by the opposition attempting to take advantage of the controversial handling of the episode to embarrass the government further. Cooler heads and vision is required on all sides, provocative statements against each other should be avoided, and a concerted effort made by both sides of the political divide to show solidarity against the disruptionists and challengers of the state’s writ. We can only hope that better sense will prevail all round and the political class as a whole will come together to tackle the crisis unitedly. This is even more important since the controversial deal signed between the government and the TLP may unravel if the arrests of its activists (even without the leaders) continue. While the TLP is not above using violence to attain its agenda, it may find support from mainstream religious forces such as the MMA, reportedly girding its loins for its campaign of protest against Aasia’s acquittal.

Another aspect of the whole sorry aftermath of the apex court’s correct and courageous decision according to the law of the land is the ‘forced’ exile of Aasia’s lawyer Saif ul Mulook. Spirited away according to him to The Netherlands by the UN and EU against his will, his spirit in protesting being in safety while his client has yet to leave the prison walls can be admired while suggesting to him that perhaps what was done to him was in his best interests and to prevent another tragedy at the hands of the fanatics. Now all that remains in the tense, fraught climate gripping the country is the release in safety of Aasia Bibi.

Business Recorder Editorial Nov 8, 2018

BoI’s reservations

Yes, the Board of Investment (BoI) did have its disagreements and reservations on China’s approach to industrial cooperation, but that’s water under the bridge after Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan’s successful visit to Pakistan’s all-weather friend. This visit has injected a much-needed dose of clarity into various facets of ongoing economic cooperation that Beijing has been extending to Islamabad. A Business Recorder news report of November 3, 2018, had brought under sharper focus BoI’s “serious” reservations that it had expressed vis-à-vis China’s purportedly backing out of commitments on proposed industrial cooperation. The report had appeared at a time when PM Imran Khan was still in China receiving assurances from Chinese leaders from President Xi Jinping downwards of help for what the PM has described as a ‘very difficult’ economy. BoI’s draft framework is to have focused on promoting Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness through transfer of technology and market access. However, the proposed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for industrial cooperation by the Chinese side focuses on domestic demand in the Pakistani market. BoI is not opposed to relocation of industries from China to Pakistan. On the contrary, it is in the process of devising an additional incentives package for relocation of industries from abroad, and this point was given significant importance in the BoI’s framework agreement. However, the relocation aspect is conspicuous by its absence from the Chinese MoU (implying reliance on more imports from China to meet domestic demand). The BoI’s framework agreement was devised to bring more industrial sectors into the scope of industrial cooperation under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The Chinese MoU however only supports cooperation in their preferred areas, i.e. iron, steel, textiles, petrochemicals, mines and minerals. A significant exclusion was that of agriculture and other industrial sectors agreed to in the long-term plan. A financing mechanism for specific projects was also proposed to achieve the goal of increased investment from China for improved industrial competitiveness of Pakistan, but has failed to find even mention in the Chinese MoU. As any student of economics and finance knows by now, Pakistan has a huge trade deficit with China, which the BoI sought to address through enhanced bilateral trade to narrow the trade gap. But this too has been excluded by the Chinese side. Nor does the Chinese MoU mention the proposed mechanism for cooperation in the agreed priority sectors. The framework agreement proposes enhancing Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness through not only technology transfer, higher degree of access to the huge Chinese market, but also skill development and labour productivity. But the Chinese thrust seems more focused on meeting Pakistan’s domestic market demand, exploration of the international market through industrial cooperation based on various Special Economic Zones (SEZs), attracting investment from world companies and promoting industry concentration in Pakistan. While the Chinese MoU does mention skill development and labour productivity, these aspects have been missing from the experience of Chinese entities’ entry into Pakistan so far. Most if not all Chinese entities working in Pakistan overwhelmingly bring their own workforce to projects in Pakistan, with hardly any employment for local labour, let alone skill enhancement.

Perhaps one of the main reasons for these divergences to have emerged in the policy framework and implementation process of CPEC is the fact that since this massive project began, the bulk if not almost all Chinese entities entering the Pakistani economic firmament have not been state-owned but rather private companies, a phenomenon that has surged since China embraced capitalism some three and a half decades ago. Whereas state-owned enterprises function under the strict discipline of the Chinese Communist Party that sees Pakistan as an all-weather friend, the mushrooming private companies bring to the table a rougher culture of self-interest than Chinese state-owned entities and even private companies from round the globe. Our economic policymakers in particular must not lose sight of the fact that only a few CPEC projects enjoy Chinese government’s lending against which the government of Pakistan has pledged sovereign guarantees. The recently-concluded visit of PM Imran Khan has underscored the need for the relevant ministry to instruct BoI to draft more carefully the contracts we sign with Chinese private companies so that the aspects discussed as missing from the Chinese proposals are addressed and clauses added where necessary to ensure cast-iron guarantees of performance, terms and conditions so that various complaints that have emerged so far of Chinese private companies not adhering to these can also be overcome. Niggling complaints regarding Chinese private companies’ performance in Pakistan should not however distract from the strategic criticality of Chinese investment in our economy, not exactly a destination of first choice for global capital.

Business Recorder Column Nov 6, 2018

The writ of the state

Rashed Rahman

The events of the past few days since the Supreme Court’s (SC’s) acquittal of blasphemy accused Aasia Bibi have caused every right thinking Pakistani to hang their head in shame at the appeasement of extremist religious groups by the PTI government. Any simpleton could have calculated the probable reaction of the Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) to the correct and courageous verdict of the SC, given the raising of Governor Salmaan Taseer’s hanged assassin Mumtaz Qadri to saint-like stature by these worthies. Taseer was killed for coming to the defence of the same poor Christian woman Aasia Bibi, falsely accused of blasphemy (a phenomenon with which we have become sickeningly familiar by now).

For those of us who initially were hopeful that the coming together of the government, opposition, judiciary and military meant the state would finally tackle these militant Barelvis who have grown accustomed to holding the state and society hostage to their outrageous demands couched in language unrepeatable in polite society (and they have the audacity to describe themselves as ‘Ulema’ even after this), that hope proved all too short lived. Imran Khan’s address to the country before departing for China promised the writ of the state would be enforced while appealing to these obscurantist forces not to compel the state to do its duty against threats to or actual loss of lives, property, etc. However, when the day dawned, the TLP and affiliated militants were accorded the virtual run of the country to destroy cars, terrorise citizens travelling on the highways, blockade main arteries, disrupt normal life, commerce, and what have you. In other words, for three days the country belonged to the extremist anarchists and it appeared that the state had disappeared (far from in the Marxian sense however).

Soon after, the government and opposition closeness fell apart and degenerated into the usual useless repartee between them, that too at a time when the state was faced with such a serious challenge. The judiciary bent over backwards to prove its true Muslim credentials that arguably lowered its prestige and dignity. Never before have we heard the superior judiciary stooping to justify its verdicts publicly. Remember the time when judges spoke only through their judgements? The military, whose COAS had been directly targeted on religious grounds by the extremists, chose to ‘distance’ itself from the fray.

The government has been at pains ever since to spin the narrative that the use of force against the destructive militants could have engendered much worse violence and the ‘deal’ with the TLP was meant to tactically defuse the situation. Now government spokespersons, from Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry to Minister of State Shehryar Afridi and others, are going through contortions any magician would be proud of to convince us that action will be taken against those responsible for violence and destruction of property. Cases have been filed, reports of arrests of those identified as responsible for the mayhem abound, but the elephant in the room is missing. No leader of the TLP has been arrested, charged and brought to justice, despite roaming free and indulging in statement after statement about their ‘understanding’ with the government.

This ‘understanding’ has revealed contradictory interpretations by the TLP and government. Because no authoritative version of all that was agreed has been made available, speculation revolves around the ‘surrender’ terms as including putting Aasia Bibi’s name on the ECL (to prevent her fleeing to safety from threatened assassination at the hands of these fanatics) and the government not standing in the way of a review appeal against the SC verdict. The review appeal has since been filed. We await the SC’s response, with the reported ill health of the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Mian Saqib Nisar raising concerns. As it is, false reporting speaks of the constitution by the government of a larger bench minus the three judges who delivered the Aasia verdict (including the CJP) to hear the review appeal. False because even a tyro in the law knows only the CJP can form benches, not the government. Doubly false because the narrow parameters of a review appeal enjoin the same bench must hear it.

The PTI government’s handling of the challenge from the TLP and other religious parties and groups has caused dismay and disappointment across the board. Even Imran Khan’s ex-wife Jemima Goldsmith and Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazari have voiced their criticisms and concerns. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan has decried the state’s allowing mobs to pillage, destroy, threaten and terrorise the citizenry and society at large.

Actually the PTI government has been hoist by its own petard. It gleefully rubbed salt into the wounds of the previous PML-N government when the TLP staged a sit-in (dharna) at the Faizabad Chowk in Islamabad on the issue of the alleged deliberate change in the oath of elected parliamentarians regarding the finality of the prophethood of Hazrat Mohammad (PBUH). When that government wilted in the face of that challenge and the military publicly ‘paid off’ the agitators to call off their protest (in the process claiming the scalp of the federal law minister), Shireen Mazari’s current argument regarding appeasement sending the wrong message to the extremists was seen being played out in practice. That ‘dress rehearsal’ encouraged the TLP in its belief that it could hold state and society hostage and bring the former to its knees. The incumbent government, much to Ms Mazari’s discomfiture, has acquiesced in just such an appeasement and surrender.

Actually viewing the present crisis through the lens of the TLP’s meteoric rise over the last two years is too narrow and restricted a perspective. The real culprit is the state’s (and many governments, civilian and military) projection of power in the region through religious fanatics and extremists for objectives that have become incrementally obscure, indefensible and unattainable. The unforeseen consequence (despite the warnings of the Cassandras of our society over many years now) has been the creation, nurturing, growth of home grown extremists that have challenged the state, sometimes with armed rebellion (two cases in point that are linked: the Lal Masjid episode and the subsequent emergence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan).

It is said that those who play with fire run the risk of being burnt by it. This aphorism fits exactly the results of our establishment’s myopic pursuit of a 'friendly’ regime in Kabul and fundamentalist groups’ armed struggle in Indian Held Kashmir, arguably to the detriment of the Afghan, Kashmiri and Pakistani people, with little today to justify the continuing course that actually runs counter to the objectives of a friendly regime in Kabul or a liberated Kashmir.

The chickens of our past ill thought through adventures with jihadi proxies have incrementally been coming home to roost with a vengeance. One would be justified in thinking some lessons would have been learnt by now from all these negative outcomes. But no, our establishment is simply suspected of changing horses mid-stream, from the minority Deobandi sect jihadist project that arguably has crossed its sell-by date to the majority Barelvi sect internal nuisance project that has such dangerous ramifications for the state itself and society as to cause cold shivers down the spine.

Speaking of spine, let us see what Imran Khan does after his return from China. Will he exhibit the spine he showed a glimpse of in his address before leaving, or will he acquiesce in his government’s pussyfooting approach to the fanatics. Which course he chooses will not only possibly determine the fate of this government, it may also settle once and for all the vexed question whether he deserves the unkind appellation ‘Taliban Khan’ or not.

rashed.rahman1@gmail.com

rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

Business Recorder Editorial Nov 5, 2018

Opposition disunity

Since the July 25, 2018 elections, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, chief of the JUI-F, has been bending his back to unite the opposition on a single platform with a single agenda: taking on the PTI government brought to power by those polls. The Maulana is more interested than any other political player in seeing the back of this government because he has been ousted from parliament due to his loss of his traditional seat in D I Khan. The problem though is that other opposition parties have their own calculations vis-à-vis the present set up in the wake of the July 25 polls. Not only that, the PPP and PML-N top leadership remains at daggers drawn because of past quarrels. In particular, now that Nawaz Sharif has been disqualified and his shoes as PML-N chief occupied by Shahbaz Sharif, the going has got rougher between the two main opposition parties given Shahbaz’s shrill, rude and unacceptable statements against PPP co-chairperson Asif Zardari when Shahbaz was still Punjab chief minister. The PML-N too may harbour reservations regarding PPP’s rivalry against it, stretching back many decades and having seen more than its fair share of ups and downs. This gulf between the two main opposition parties has meant that Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s shuttling and lobbying has yet to produce the desired results. The current Multi-Party Conference (MPC) the Maulana is trying to organise is the fifth such since the July polls. Four have been called by him, one by Shahbaz Sharif. The first MPC called by the JUI-F soon after the elections failed to agree on the MMA’s point of view that given the allegations and accusations of rigging in the polls, no opposition member of the National Assembly (NA) should take oath. In the second conference too, no decision could be taken on this demand and in the third a majority rejected the idea. The fourth MPC called by Shahbaz only agreed to support the PPP’s presidential candidate Aitzaz Ahsan but little else in terms of forging closer ties to give the ruling PTI a tough time in parliament given the opposition’s combined strength. Now when the fifth MPC looms, there is still little sign of unity of purpose in the opposition’s ranks.

Reports regarding the top leadership of the PML-N’s huddle in Parliament House speak of Nawaz advocating a ‘softly, softly’ approach. Given the fumbling on display in the first two months of the government, his argument appears to rest on a strategy of letting the government expose itself as it attempts to come to grips with the country’s problems, chief amongst them being handling of the economy. Nawaz does not want a premature activism of a united opposition to give the government the excuse that it is not being able to perform because of the opposition’s campaign against it. In other words, Nawaz is advocating patience, letting the government sink further under the weight of its incompetence, and waiting for a more opportune moment to challenge the incumbents. This implies that any thought of a street agitation is a definite no-no for the foreseeable future. However, because of the distance between the PPP and PML-N leadership (neither will attend the upcoming MPC), the advantage by default is going to Prime Minister (PM) Imran Khan and his government. Parliament is currently all but non-functional, with almost daily walkouts by the opposition and the Speaker of the NA being unable to form the required parliamentary committees because of a standoff on the chairmanship of the Public Accounts Committee, which the opposition holds should, as has been the emerging convention over the last decade, go to the Leader of the Opposition Shahbaz Sharif. Since the PM has personally ruled this out, the impasse continues. While this causes problems for the government’s legislative agenda, a united opposition would be in a very strong position to take on the treasury benches. Whether this will transpire in the near or more distant future may depend on how far the targeting of the PML-N and the PPP proceeds at the hands of the government (via NAB, etc). With its unremitting campaign to put alleged corrupt people from the opposition behind bars, ironically the government may well turn out to be the only hope for the unity in the opposition’s ranks so beloved of Maulana Fazlur Rehman.

Business Recorder Editorial Nov 2, 2018

Smog again

In what has become an annual ritual for some years, Lahore and its environs are once again in the grip of a thick cloud of smog that shows signs of getting worse. Overcast skies, no sunshine and a dreary layer of smoke and dust have blurred the city skyline. The phenomenon has been in evidence at the onset of winter for some years now, with the Environment Protection Department (EPD) helpless except to categorise it as the ‘fifth’ season and advising citizens to take precautionary measures such as not remaining outdoors longer than absolutely necessary, wearing helmets or masks while travelling, using public transport to the maximum to reduce the number of vehicles on the roads and washing off the smog grime as soon as possible to avoid skin irritation. While this advice is well intentioned, what is of greater import is the EPD’s confession that it was unable to control the smog last year. To that could be added that the EPD has in fact not been able to do much about the smog ‘season’ ever since the phenomenon began a few years ago. The European Space Agency (ESA) has declared Lahore one of the world’s 50 Nitrogen Oxide hotspots. Nitrogen Oxide is the major source of Particulate Matter 2.5 (PM2.5) and Ozone, harmful air pollutants that cause respiratory problems. It is estimated that 75,000 premature deaths worldwide per annum are caused by Nitrogen Oxide and its derivatives PM2.5 and Ozone. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that 600,000 children under the age of 15 die worldwide every year because of exposure to polluted air containing the ingredients above. The elderly too are risk from the same phenomenon. The main source of these air pollutants is the burning of fossil fuels. In the case of Lahore, ESA says the main sources of Nitrogen Oxide are road transport (40 percent) and power generation (23 percent). To these may be added factories, brick kilns and garbage burning. But while these are perennial sources, the seasonal culprit at the onset of winter is crop stubble burning, both in Pakistani and Indian Punjab. While both these sources inundate Lahore, the latter has made winters in New Delhi virtually unlivable.

What has the EPD done so far to control if not eliminate this menace? The only concrete step appears to be to order the closure of brick kilns from November 3, except for those kilns that have converted to the less polluting zigzag technology. While the wholesale closure will affect the brick kiln business and the poorest of the poor employed at them, this step only scratches the surface in the absence of actions against crop stubble burning, polluting factories, vehicle emissions, garbage burning, etc. In fact, when viewed holistically, the brick kiln closure decision appears more of a knee jerk reaction to appear to be doing something, rather than a well thought out plan to tackle the menace. The smog phenomenon can only be tackled in the context of climate change (e.g. less monsoon rainfall). Lahore’s roads have been widened endlessly in recent years to accommodate the mushrooming number of vehicles being plied in the city. In the process, precious trees have been chopped down mercilessly and, in the absence of meaningful replanting, have removed a good proportion of the lungs of the city that could absorb some if not all of the pollutants besmirching the city’s air. Nor can any strategy of controlling pollution be considered effective unless and until all the sources of pollution are tackled. First and foremost, factories spewing pollutants into the air have to be regulated to control their emissions through the latest technology. The traffic pollution on the roads has to be lowered by investing in public transport. Garbage (all year round) and crop stubble (seasonal) burning has to be strictly clamped down upon. Brick kilns have to incrementally switch to the less polluting zig zag technology. Last but not least, the lungs of the city have to be refurbished through a serious replanting campaign. None of these measures are a one off solution. They require dedicated and sustained efforts to ring in the necessary changes. Only then will this man-made disaster abate.