Business Recorder Editorial December 15, 2020

Business Recorder Editorial as written by me on December 12, 2020:

 ‘Third force’ intervention

 

Chairman Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari called on Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Vice President Maryam Nawaz at her Jati Umra residence in Lahore on December 11, 2020. Bilawal offered condolences on Maryam’s grandmother’s recent demise, but the real significance of this meeting lay elsewhere. For one, the meeting took place on the eve of the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM’s) Lahore rally at Minar-e-Pakistan on December 13, 2020. Second, this meeting and the joint efforts of the two young leaders of the two main political parties in the PDM reflect the transition to the next dynastic generation. This generation does not carry the burden of the past differences and collisions between their elders. And their rapport seems to offer the opposition benefits in the PDM campaign as well as better relations between their respective parties in the future. In fact Bilawal has already instigated a discussion within PDM on the PPP’s electoral alliance with the PML-N and even Maulana Fazlur Rehman regarding this idea and the benefits accruing to all the component parties in the next election, but especially the PPP if it sacrifices its Sindh government through the en masse resignations of parliamentarians on the PDM’s agenda. Of course only time will tell whether such an electoral alliance becomes a reality and what it offers. For the moment, in the increasing heat of the PDM campaign, Bilawal categorically ruled out PDM creating a situation where the ‘third force’ may intervene. Of course, there is much history to peruse in Pakistan’s past regarding such a development, and the track record does not inspire total confidence that such a scenario can be categorically ruled out. However, the nature of the ‘intervention’, if it comes, is debatable. It is unlikely a direct military takeover would be viable in today’s international climate. With the possible exception of all-weather friend China, Pakistan could find itself bereft of the aid and loans on which it still crucially depends from bilateral and multilateral sources. An indirect intervention is of course already the stuff of the opposition’s critique, dubbing the 2018 elections manipulated if not rigged in order to bring a ‘selected’ prime minister to power. This does not mean the establishment is incapable of changing course in the face of a crisis that renders the present plans unsustainable. But there are no signs of that so far. Maryam stated after the Jati Umra meeting that government ministers were now approaching the PML-N for talks, but she had rejected this in line with her view from the beginning that there should be no talks with this government. The implication being that the opposition considers talks with the government less important than ‘talks’ with its powerful backers. The government’s recent offer of talks (including by Prime Minister Imran Khan) appears to reflect some nervousness in the power corridors. However, qualified as the offer is by the government’s usual rhetoric about ‘No NRO’, etc, it seems a non-starter, not the least because it is too little, too late after years of the brutal castigation of the opposition. This view, according to one report, is shared by some senior government ministers, who are dejected by the lack of political thinking in the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf’s (PTI’s) top ranks, which have never discussed the crisis and how to handle it in any meaningful manner.

Political predictions by their very nature are an inexact science. However, the government’s recent actions against facilitators of the Lahore PDM rally (including DJ Butt and the restaurant owner who served food to Maryam Nawaz in Lakshmi Chowk, Lahore the other day) smack of both panic and stupidity. If history is any guide, imposed governments eventually run out of credibility, particularly if they, in their wisdom, consider pillorying their opponents the only way to cling to power. Such a course weakens the possibilities of any national dialogue, let alone the (belated) assertion by Imran Khan that parliament is the best forum for a dialogue between the two sides of the political divide. Increasingly, it appears the die is cast and confrontation looms. The result is unpredictable, but although both sides must share the blame to respective extent, it is the government that has most to lose and the greater responsibility to keep the system from going south. At present, however, the weight of logic rests with the sceptics, including those within the government’s ranks, that the government has played its cards badly and will now have to bear the consequences, along, of course, with the country.

And as published by the paper on December 15, 2020:

There’s dire need for govt-opposition dialogue

 

First things first. The 11-party opposition alliance – Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) – has ruled out talks with the government. PDM convenor Maulana Fazlur Rehman has asked the establishment to move aside from the way of people or else there could be massive unrest in the country because of obvious reasons. That was perhaps the gist of what PDM leaders said at their power show at Lahore’s Minar-e-Pakistan on Sunday. Yesterday, PDM extended an “ultimatum” to government, asking it to quit by Jan 31, 2021. Two days before their much-hyped rally in Punjab’s capital, Chairman Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Bilawal Bhutto Zardari called on Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) Vice President Maryam Nawaz at her Jati Umra residence. Bilawal offered condolences on Maryam’s grandmother’s recent demise, but the real significance of this meeting lay elsewhere. For one, the meeting took place on the eve of the opposition Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM’s) Lahore rally at Minar-e-Pakistan on December 13, 2020. Second, this meeting and the joint efforts of the two young leaders of the two main political parties in the PDM reflect the transition to the next dynastic generation. This generation does not carry the burden of the past differences and collisions between their elders. And their rapport seems to offer the opposition benefits in the PDM campaign as well as better relations between their respective parties in the future. In fact Bilawal has already instigated a discussion within PDM on the PPP’s electoral alliance with the PML-N and even Maulana Fazlur Rehman regarding this idea and the benefits accruing to all the component parties in the next election, but especially the PPP if it sacrifices its Sindh government through the en masse resignations of parliamentarians on the PDM’s agenda. Of course only time will tell whether such an electoral alliance becomes a reality and what it offers. For the moment, in the increasing heat of the PDM campaign, Bilawal categorically ruled out PDM creating a situation where the ‘third force’ may intervene. Of course, there is much history to peruse in Pakistan’s past regarding such a development, and the track record does not inspire total confidence that such a scenario can be categorically ruled out. However, the nature of the ‘intervention’, if it comes, is debatable. It is unlikely a direct military takeover would be viable in today’s international climate. With the possible exception of all-weather friend China, Pakistan could find itself bereft of the aid and loans on which it still crucially depends from bilateral and multilateral sources. An indirect intervention is of course already the stuff of the opposition’s critique, dubbing the 2018 elections manipulated if not rigged in order to bring a ‘selected’ prime minister to power. This does not mean the establishment is incapable of changing course in the face of a crisis that renders the present plans unsustainable. But there are no signs of that so far. The government’s recent offer of talks (including by Prime Minister Imran Khan) appears to reflect some nervousness in the power corridors. However, qualified as the offer is by the government’s usual rhetoric about ‘No NRO’, etc, it nonetheless throws up an opportunity for the opposition to grab it with both hands. That the opposition has stepped up its pressure on the government is a fact. It needs to speak from a position of strength, not of arrogance. Not only will an opposition-government dialogue effectively forestall ‘third force’s’ intervention, it will possibly lead to a revisit of government’s ‘No NRO’ rhetoric. The country cannot afford any protracted period of political instability. The situation, in fact, underscores the need for reprising a high economic growth, which will need, among other things, greater political stability.