Establishment trying to wean PPP away?
The court of inquiry ordered by COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa after a telephone conversation with Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari following the so-called ‘Karachi incident’ has found the officers of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Rangers responsible and ordered their removal. The inquiry stated that despite being experienced officers, they acted ‘overzealously’ in forcing the Inspector General (IG) Police Sindh to file an FIR against Captain (retd) Safdar in the wake of the incident at the Quaid’s Mazar that was seen as disrespectful to the country’s founder. Soon after, Captain (retd) Safdar was arrested at his hotel room where he was staying with his wife, Maryam Nawaz. ISPR stated the removed officers face further departmental proceedings after they had been placed at the disposal of GHQ. In the aftermath of these events, senior police officers in Sindh had gone on leave en masse for the humiliation of their chief. This prompted General Bajwa’s call to Bilawal, who has responded positively to the development, saying the inquiry and action were appropriate and would have the effect of strengthening institutions (instead of the clash embedded in the ‘overzealous’ steps taken). Nawaz Sharif, on the other hand, has rejected the inquiry report, dubbing it a cover-up by making junior officers scapegoats and allowing the real culprits to go scot-free. Interestingly, the police investigation into the FIR registered against Captain (retd) Safdar by one Waqas has been found to be false. Waqas was found not at the Mazar at the time, no threats being hurled could be proved, and he failed to join the investigation. Suspicion fell on the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) when reports revealed Waqas’ connections with the party. In all this, the original complaint of inappropriate behaviour at the Quaid’s Mazar has got lost in the melee.
The incident and its fallout points to some interesting thoughts and developments. The ‘overzealous’ actions of the officers involved beggar the imagination as being solely their own doing without clearance and instructions from higher up. To that extent, Nawaz Sharif’s criticism may not be without weight. However, it is also an emerging fact that the establishment may now be reconsidering its policy of putting all its eggs in one basket. The ‘outreach’ to the PPP may be a reflection of seeking wider options in case the need arises. The PPP on the other hand has a different take on the situation from the rest of the opposition given its stake in the existing dispensation in the form of the Sindh government. No such consideration limits Nawaz Sharif’s actions as he has little to lose and thinks there is much to be gained by playing aggressively on the front foot. He has not, reportedly, ruled out the option of a meaningful dialogue with the establishment, if Shahid Khaqan Abbasi is to be believed, which points to more possible, even if unlikely for the moment, options for the establishment to keep in its back drawer. Although the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) as a whole has welcomed the inquiry decision, Maulana Fazlur Rehman remains the obdurate fly in the ointment of any dialogue with the establishment given that he has even less to lose than Nawaz Sharif currently. The establishment’s response to the embarrassment caused by its ‘overzealous’ officers seems to have been to defuse and divert the opposition’s anger against it onto the government so that it avoids blame. Whether it has succeeded in this damage control exercise only time will tell, but widespread public opinion seems sceptical of the whole exercise. A dialogue may well be in the interests of a more rational and acceptable way out of the impasse in politics at present, in which Imran Khan and his government may prove the major hurdle, given his proclivity to refuse even ordinary interaction with the opposition. The establishment may simply be hedging its bets in case the present trajectory of the PTI government continues until a point is reached, triggered by the PDM campaign of rallies or some other cause, where a recasting of the game plan becomes an unavoidable necessity. The establishment, military and security agencies could make life easier for themselves and the country by staying away from civilian affairs outside their remit.
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