Now Sudan, and next?
Sudan’s decision to recognise Israel does not come as a surprise since it was being talked about after the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain followed the older Egypt and Jordan example and made ‘peace’ with Israel in September 2020. And if US President Donald Trump’s triumphal statement regarding at least five more Arab states on the verge and many more waiting in the wings is to be taken at face value, it confirms the Arab abandonment of the Palestinian cause and the acceptance of the Zionist entity as an unavoidable fact of life. The prize in this unnamed list of course remains Saudi Arabia, which along with other Gulf Cooperation Council members seems to be testing the waters of Arab and Muslim opinion on these developments before it risks its ‘leadership’ of the Islamic world by bowing to Israeli recognition. Of course there are some obvious and some potential sweeteners for this bevy of Arab countries vying to line up in the ‘stampede’ to recognise Israel. In Sudan’s case, there is the fresh added symbolism of an Arab country that has been at war with Israel in the past. Under Omar al-Bashir, whose regime fell last year in the face of civil unrest, Sudan welcomed al Qaeda, and even before that, smuggled munitions to the Palestinians, especially Hamas, a supply line that earned it Israeli air attacks against supply convoys and a weapons factory in 2009 and 2012. Al Qaeda carried out attacks in Sudan against US citizens and targets, landing Sudan on a terrorist blacklist. Now, as part of the deal brokered by Trump, anxious to add one more diplomatic victory just days before the US presidential elections, Sudan has deposited $ 335 million to compensate survivors and their families for anti-US attacks. This not only paved the way for Khartoum’s prized desire to be removed from the blacklist and the sanctions under it, it also has cleared the path for US and Israeli economic aid and military supplies. Similarly, the UAE can now look forward to the supply of US F-35 stealth fighters, which will be the most advanced in the entire region, after Israel dropped its opposition to the sale following assurances from Washington that Israel’s military capabilities will be upgraded significantly.
The hybrid military-civilian provisional government in Khartoum orchestrated the process of normalisation of relations with Israel in exchange for being taken off the terrorist blacklist (after its purse was lighter by $ 335 million) and receiving economic and military aid for its poverty-ridden people by arranging for Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the military’s chairman of the ruling sovereign council, to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Entebbe, Uganda. This kicked off the whole process (at the price of the betrayal of the Palestinians). What a turnaround from the hosting by Khartoum of the Arab League summit soon after the Arab-Israeli war in 1967 that adopted the three No’s: no recognition of Israel, no peace with Israel, no negotiations with Israel. Ironically, the outreach to Israel began even before Bashir’s ouster. In 2016, Sudan’s foreign minister Ibrahim Ghandoor left the door open to the normalisation of relations with Israel if the US lifted the sanctions. In early 2016, Sudan severed relations with Iran, to the satisfaction of its increasingly influential backers the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This move fed into Trump lifting some sanctions, following his predecessor Obama’s example. Sudan’s alleged ‘crimes’ in its Darfur province too were ‘forgiven and forgotten’ as a result. In late 2019, the US and Sudan exchanged ambassadors for the first time in 23 years. These and other steps were the opening acts of this chapter of the ‘Deal of the Century’ being peddled by Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. In essence, this ‘deal’ has abandoned the two-state solution for the Palestinians along 1967 borders according to the UN Security Council resolutions. That means the only possible solution left on the table is a one-state one in which the Palestinians receive equal rights as citizens, with controversial demographic and other considerations. If even that is not forthcoming, a new generation of Palestinians may be persuaded to bypass the restraining influence of the Palestine Liberation Organisation and see a return to armed struggle as their only hope. The betrayal by more and more Arab countries also potentially heralds the anger amongst Palestinians, the Arab and Muslim masses in the region and worldwide exploding into violence.
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