Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Business Recorder Column Oct 23, 2018

Gathering storm

Rashed Rahman

The political landscape is evolving in a direction that spells trouble for the incumbent government and its alleged establishment patrons. The PPP held a People’s Lawyers Forum (PLF) convention in Islamabad on October 21, 2018, over which former president and PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari presided. After the convention, during a press conference, Zardari lambasted the PTI government as ‘incompetent’, predicted its inability to complete its five year tenure, and called upon the opposition political parties to unite against the incumbents. (No one, it seems, thought of asking him what would follow if the government fell, i.e. did its ‘patrons’ have a Plan B up their sleeve?)
In answer to the question that lies at the heart of the inability of the powerful opposition to unite against the PTI government so far, Zardari vented his well-known anger at Nawaz Sharif over the cases the PML-N had instituted against him. Dilating on Nawaz Sharif’s current spate of troubles, he said Sharif was getting what he deserved. However, despite this, he said, the possibility of a meeting with Nawaz Sharif could not be ruled out. But he fended off a question whether the PPP would become part of any move to dislodge the government by saying that will be decided when the time comes.
Dilating on the PTI government’s ‘incompetence’, particularly where the economy is concerned, Zardari defended the track record of the 2008-13 PPP government by arguing that they had inherited similar problems to the PTI government from the Musharraf regime, which by then had exhausted its international goodwill and inwards flow of aid. Despite that, he argued, the PPP government had not burdened the poor and framed futuristic policies (including CPEC), which the PML-N subsequent government nullified.
Calling Imran Khan the ‘prime minister-select’ (a sobriquet the PPP, including its chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, seem to have latched onto), Zardari said he did not attach any expectations to him since he obviously could not run the government or even his own party. Zardari pointed to the anomaly that Imran Khan’s illegal Banigala residence was being regularised while the common people’s houses were being demolished. He went on to deny that he had benefitted from Musharraf’s NRO, saying Nawaz Sharif and the MQM may have but he himself was acquitted by the courts in all the cases against him. In any case he dismissed Imran Khan’s talk of an NRO as a political stunt.
Another awkward question persuaded Zardari to trash National Accountability Bureau (NAB) head Justice (retired) Javed Iqbal by saying although he was part of his appointment, people with small minds find it difficult to digest even a little power accorded to them and go haywire. He contrasted this behaviour with his transfer of all powers to parliament when he was president.
The PLF convention adopted a series of resolutions, chief amongst which were calling for the right to appeal against verdicts of the Supreme Court in suo motu cases, change in the process of judges’ appointments, and condemnation of NAB for targetting the opposition. They also vowed to defend provincial autonomy granted under the 18th Amendment and expressed grave concern at the interminable delays in the justice system. They reiterated the demand for the setting up of a constitutional court, presumably to relieve the existing superior judiciary of this burden to allow them to whittle away the mountain of pending cases. PLF critiqued the PTI government brought to power through a dubious electoral process as an ‘economic disaster’. PLF pressed the government to eschew its aggressive confrontational style with its political rivals and called upon it to turn towards a consultative (therefore inclusive) process with all stakeholders. This may appear to be wishing for the moon since the PTI’s political style has yet to transcend its ‘container-type’ hype. Last but not least, the PLF reiterated to the Chief Justice of Pakistan its long-standing demand for an early hearing and redressal of the injustice inflicted in the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto case.
What the PPP is saying holds a lot of water. In fact, despite its relative marginalisation on the national political scene and being confined to Sindh alone since 2013, in the current cut and thrust of parliamentary politics, the PPP comes across as the only reassuringly mature, calm and rational party in contrast with the foaming at the mouth of the PTI and the retaliatory vitriol of the PML-N. The speeches by PML-N chief Shahbaz Sharif (produced by an order of the Speaker), the PPP’s Syed Khursheed Shah and Information Minister Fawad Chaudhry in the National Assembly the other day were a study in contrasts, with Shah outshining the other two by a mile and a half.
The PPP may be the calmest, the PTI the most abusive, the PML-N vitriolic, but what does all this palaver boil down to? Essentially the people (especially the poor) are silent spectators to this right-right (or at best -centre) struggle between the main political players, with the people’s only ‘benefit’ the storm of inflation that has hit them since the PTI government took office. The government’s raising of energy prices (with more to come) has taken its toll of the pockets of the poor and common citizens. With its dithering and virtually daily flip-flops, the PTI government cannot escape responsibility for this storm, particularly since the uncertainty surrounding going to the IMF or being able to secure assistance from friendly countries and avoid the stranglehold of the IMF caused the stock market and the rupee to crash. Every item of daily use, with food at its core, has gone up in the first two months of this government, with arguably more pain to follow. The mood on the street therefore (and in the by-polls) seems to be turning against the PTI, and its assurances that all will be well a few months down the road have few takers.
The question has been asked why Pakistan cannot free itself of IMF programmes (the current one reportedly is the 23rd since 1958). While traditional economists point to the inherent need of a developing economy for imports of plant, machinery and raw materials for the industrialisation effort as indispensable, so far Pakistan’s economy has failed despite this to have adequate export surpluses that could eventually surpass our unavoidable level of imports. The eternal unfulfilled hope that this model of development would eventually lead us on the path trodden by South Korea, the Asian Tigers, etc, may be rooted in our failure to sustain the industrialisation drive and move it up a notch from traditional manufacturing to today’s high-tech products that have transformed the world economy.
But even if by some miracle Pakistan were able to overcome its hobbled economic state a la the developing world’s success stories, would this resolve (for us as much as the rest of the developing world) the profound and so far unanswered questions related to the structure of the 21st century global economy, Pakistan’s place in it and inability to overcome the extraction-of-surplus structures that have it and most of the contemporary world in their grip, to the benefit of the leading western powers led by the US?



rashed-rahman.blogspot.com

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