Portent of
things to come?
The defection
from the ruling PML-N of six MNAs and two MPAs in the run up to the general
elections is being considered a major setback to the party and perhaps a
portent of things to come. All eight parliamentarians belong to south Punjab.
They have announced that they are resigning from the Assemblies and will
contest the elections either as independents or in alliance/seat adjustments
with some other party. In a press conference to make this announcement, the
group’s spokesman, MNA Khusro Bakhtiar revealed that they have set up a South
Punjab Province Front (SPPF) for the purpose of carving out a province in south
Punjab. The SPPF will be led by former caretaker prime minister Balakh Sher
Mazari and MPA Nasrullah Dareshak. Bakhtiar justified this move by pointing to
the high incidence of poverty and the neglect at the hands of Punjab Chief
Minister Shahbaz’s government of the area. It is another matter that none of
these worthies uttered a word on south Punjab over the last five years, either
inside or outside the Assemblies. This kind of shift in allegiance is not
unknown on the eve of general elections. The SPPF quitters have a long and inglorious
track record of shifting loyalties. Most of them were elected in 2013 as
independents, joining the PML-N later. Bakhtiar predicted more defections to
follow as, he claimed, his group was in touch with some 20 PML-N
parliamentarians on the issue. As it is, two more PML-N parliamentarians from
Sheikhupura also defected on the same day. If this becomes a growing trend,
serious consequences could follow. For one, the impending budget being passed
before the PML-N government leaves office to make way for a caretaker
government may prove difficult. It goes without saying that if the budget is
not passed, the government would fall even before its tenure ends. In the
absence so far of consensus between Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi and
Leader of the Opposition Syed Khursheed Shah on the caretaker setup, more
uncertainty looms. All this could impact the election schedule. The game plan
that is murkily revealing itself seems to revolve around exploiting any
fissures or differences within the PML-N ranks and utilising the opportunistic
tendencies of some PML-N parliamentarians to whittle away the strength of the
party, make its victory in the elections difficult if not impossible, and pave
the way for a hung parliament. Such an outcome could further lend itself to
manipulation from behind the scenes to install a government amenable to ‘directions’
from powerful state institutions.
If this analysis
is correct, party president Shahbaz Sharif’s instructions to the PML-N to
refrain from commenting on the issue of defections is understandable on the
touchstone of not turning the trickle of defections so far into an unstoppable
flood. It seems the instruction followed Minister of State for Information
Marriyum Aurangzeb’s castigation of these ‘turncoats’. It comes as no surprise
that Information Secretary of the PTI, Fawad Chaudhry, gloated over the
development as signalling the start of the disintegration of the PML-N. Whether
that proves correct only time will tell, but these developments have already
elicited a statement from Nawaz Sharif that ‘pre-poll rigging’ is in motion and
without a level playing field for all parties, the results of the elections
will prove unacceptable. The game plan can be discerned to have set the ball rolling
with the change of government in Balochistan, its consequent impact on the
Senate elections (where the PML-N was deprived of a generally anticipated
majority) and now declaring open season on waverers in the PML-N ranks. If the
game plan does, by some sleight of hand, does succeed, it is not difficult to
imagine that what will follow is likely to be unstable, provide the scenario for
further confrontation, and threaten the very foundations and premises on which
a democratic order sits. Troubling thoughts indeed.
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