Pak-Afghan-US
minuet
COAS General
Qamar Javed Bajwa while addressing the Chiefs of Defence Conference in Kabul
attempted to reassure Kabul and Washington that Pakistan’s counterterrorism
operations are targeting elements carrying out attacks in Afghanistan. In turn
he called for reciprocal cooperation against elements carrying out attacks
inside Pakistan while holed up on Afghan soil. The conference was attended by
the top military brass of the US, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, i.e. the occupying power and almost
all of Afghanistan’s neighbours. Not surprisingly, given the state of relations
between Tehran and Washington, Iran was the notable exception. General Bajwa
went on to claim that all terrorist sanctuaries had been eliminated from
Pakistan’s soil and residual terrorists who meld into the 2.7 million Afghan
refugees in Pakistan combined with border security coordination inadequacies
are being targeted through the ongoing Operation Radd-ul-Fasad. The conference
is part of efforts to develop a regional counterterrorism strategy, check the
growing presence of Islamic State (IS) retreating from Iraq and Syria to
Afghanistan and attempt to eliminate narco-trafficking believed to be the main
source of funding for the Afghan Taliban. Whether, however, General Bajwa’s
reiteration of Pakistan’s mantra will persuade the conference or the wider
world remains a moot point. Pakistan currently suffers from a credibility deficit
when it makes the claims General Bajwa did. The Afghan Taliban and the deadly
Haqqani network have been hosted on Pakistani soil since the Taliban government
was ousted by the US invasion in 2001. It has been axiomatic since then that
the Quetta Shura and Haqqani network’s presence in FATA would be impossible
without the support of our military and security establishment. The actions
General Bajwa musters as arguments in his narrative ‘exported’ Pakistan’s
Taliban problem to Afghan soil through Operation Zarb-e-Azb in FATA, but no
independent observer or analyst is convinced that this or subsequent military
operations eliminated the safe havens inside Pakistan that the Afghan Taliban
and Haqqani network have enjoyed for the last 17 years. Pakistan’s demand to
the US to provide it ‘actionable intelligence’ is derided on the grounds that
no one knows better than the Pakistani military establishment where the Afghan insurgents
are holed up inside Pakistan. In other words, Pakistan’s narrative tends to run
aground on lingering suspicions of Islamabad continuing its proxy war inside Afghanistan,
whether for reasons of the discredited strategic depth concept or to hedge its
bets in the Afghan endgame.
Pakistan may
have been able to get away with its duality of policy so far, but wiser counsel
points in the direction of these long nurtured chickens coming home to roost
now. US President Donald Trump has proved less tolerant of Pakistan’s
prevarication than his predecessors Bush or Obama. He has proved less amenable
to the argument that the US cannot push Pakistan too much given Washington’s
logistical considerations in Afghanistan. While Trump has been blunt in his
views and cut off some $ two billion of military aid, the US State Department
and the Pentagon have been playing the ‘good cop’ by delivering a softer
message that Pakistan must play ball or forego civilian and military aid. Trump
has asked the US Congress to approve a reduced $ 336 million civil and military
aid for Pakistan on the grounds that this will help defeat IS and al Qaeda,
aims the Pakistani military is comfortable with, but Congress has added the
condition that the military component of this aid will only be given if
Pakistan moves against the terrorist safe havens on its soil. Equally of
concern, the US has moved to restore Pakistan’s name on the terror-financing watchlist
if it does not crack down on terrorist groups of all shades and hues, including
those targeting India over Kashmir or internal sectarian groups. To stave off
such an outcome, Pakistan has taken some actions against groups ostensibly
banned but able to operate freely through a ‘mini-crackdown’ targeting certain
welfare facilities run by groups such as Jamaat ud Dawa. This represents less a
change of heart regarding such groups and more an expedient effort to avoid the
watchlist that could impact our economy negatively. The three-cornered minuet
being played out between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the US for many years now
appears to be approaching its last movements. But unfortunately, our policy
makers have yet to wake up to the implications of this endgame and grasp firmly
the nettle of elimination of terrorist groups from our soil without
discrimination or exceptions.
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