For Herald monthly forthcoming May issue

Akhtar Mengal walks a tightrope Sardar Akhtar Jan Mengal, chief of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), is embarked on a highly risky game by returning to Pakistan after four years self-exile to lead his party in the elections. The process of his return began with his appearance before the Supreme Court (SC) last year, where he reiterated the litany of complaints the Baloch have against the state, including the phenomenon of abductions, torture and dumping of the dead bodies of Baloch nationalists all over Balochistan (and now Karachi). Akhtar Mengal and his party boycotted the 2008 elections in protest at the troubled conditions in Balochistan. The killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti in 2006, continuing military operations, the kill and dump campaign of the hated Frontier Corps and lately their mercenary death squads recruited from local tribes, all these had persuaded Akhtar Mengal that for safety he should repair abroad. The threat was not idle imagination. His party’s secretary general, Habib Jalib Baloch was gunned down on a Quetta road in broad daylight. Other activists of the party too have suffered the unwanted attentions of the security forces. Informed observers of the situation in Balochistan are convinced that the return last year by Akhtar Mengal to appear in the SC was not happenstance. Clearly, such a move would require some preliminary contacts with the establishment and their explicit or tacit nod for Mengal to return. The appearance in the SC proved the first gambit in what by now appears a calculated strategy to get back into mainstream politics through the upcoming elections. In the process, Akhtar Mengal has brought upon himself and his party the anger and threats of the Baloch nationalist insurgents. They have unequivocally stated that they will treat as an enemy anyone who participates in these polls, which they argue are intended to continue the grip of the state authorities over the province and a continuation of the repressive policies that have been in evidence since the early 2000s. One indication of the seriousness of the insurgent threat is the recent attack on Sanaullah Zehri that killed his son and others. The danger of course is that the already fragmented Baloch nationalist movement, divided along the lines of tribe, ideology and aims, may, if further such attacks are mounted against the moderate nationalist parties (including the BNP-M) participating in the elections, runs the risk of sinking into inter-tribal feuds. One indication of the tightrope walk Akhtar Mengal is currently precariously engaged in is the manner in which he has been trying to hedge his bets. On the one hand, he has been pressurising the authorities to improve the ground situation in the province by means of a cessation of the repression and release of the ‘missing’ persons, arguing that fair, free and transparent elections are impossible without the improvement in the political climate expected after such changes. This has the added advantage of reasserting his nationalist credentials. On the other hand, Mengal has defiantly brushed aside the insurgents’ threats by asserting that he and his party will not be cowed by any threats. It remains to be seen whether Akhtar Mengal is able to pull off what would be no less than a Houdini-like escape act by leading his party into the elections while avoiding or staving off any attacks by the insurgents. No one should need reminding of the fraught consequences if Akhtar Mengal and the BNP-M suffer any setback at the insurgents’ hands.