Daily Times Editorial Feb 12, 2013

Making peace with the TTP? The chorus of voices demanding the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP’s) offer of talks be taken up seems to be growing louder. Whereas Imran Khan is feeling vindicated by Nawaz Sharif’s endorsement of talking to the TTP, politicians in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) are pushing for a peace deal with the militants, partly or wholly because they fear violence during the election campaign. The induction of Shaukatullah Khan as the new Governor of KP has encouraged these politicians as they think his tribal background will assist in the effort to restore peace in the strife-torn province as well as FATA. The new Governor has himself pronounced immediately after taking oath that this would be his main mission. But he also emphasised that his efforts to reach out to the militants would only follow the all parties conference on the issue, an idea the ANP has put forward. There is also speculation that Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s proposal of setting up a jirga to hold such talks could offer a traditional mode of conflict resolution that may be more efficacious. Some are saying the Maulana’s journey to Qatar to talk to the Afghan Taliban is part of this strategy. The reasoning behind this is that developments in the fight against the TTP and affiliated militant groups have revealed the nexus between the Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani counterparts, evidence for which is the safe havens militants expelled from Swat have found just across the Afghan border in areas controlled by the Haqqani network. The TTP is relying on the lack of unity and consensus in Pakistan’s polity on how to approach the problem of the TTP. The latter may be offering an olive branch, but that has not stopped it continuing to fight while dangling the carrot of talks; witness the recent attacks against Shias in Hangu and on a military check post in Lakki Marwat. Talking while fighting is a time tested tactic for insurgents. The questions to be asked revolve around whether the TTP offer should be taken seriously, how would the TTP’s past approach of using peace agreements to regroup and strengthen themselves be prevented, and how the agenda of the TTP would be dealt with during the negotiations, if they take place. The ‘enthusiasm’ of the ANP and other KP political parties for such talks may partly be owed to the experience of talking to the militants in Swat, which arguably exposed their malign intent and paved the way for an operation that uprooted them from the valley, as well as considerations of the threat to election campaigning activity from suicide bombers and other forms of attack. The federal PPP-led government has so far been ambivalent about the TTP offer, while the military is maintaining an enigmatic silence. Reports say the military’s view remains that the peace offensive of the TTP should not deceive or disarm us and that the likelihood of continuing military confrontation is still the most convincing scenario. On the other hand the US is said to be hostile to the idea of Pakistan negotiating with the TTP, which some observers have contrasted with their approach to talks with the Afghan Taliban. Washington’s view appears to be that the two situations are dissimilar, with 12 years of fighting and the impending withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan providing the opportunity and momentum for exploring a power sharing arrangement in Kabul that would ensure a smooth exit for the western forces and prevent a new civil war after. The TTP, in the US’s analysis, represents hardline extremists who used peace agreements with Pakistan in 2011 to join hands with the Afghan Taliban and ratchet up sensational attacks against the western forces, penetrating into the heart of the security establishment in Kabul itself. Washington recognises the TTP’s objective as overthrowing the Pakistani state and imposing its rigid interpretation of Islam on Pakistani society. This is a nightmare scenario for the Americans, since it threatens to undo their plans in Afghanistan. Given all these contradictory views on the TTP offer, it does not appear as though the peace offer will take off any time soon, and perhaps too late to ensure the elections, at least in KP, are not affected by the TTP’s attacks.