Daily Times Editorial Dec 23, 2012

Transition in Washington It is not unusual for second term US presidents to make changes in their administration. This is not always reflective of any dissatisfaction with the incumbents, only that eight years in the same job sometimes proves too much for some people. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has indicated she will leave to spend more time with her family. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta also seems poised to take flight. General Petraeus has resigned as head of the CIA over an extra-marital affair. In the first signs of the transition to come in Washington, as widely expected after the withdrawal from consideration for the post of US Secretary of State by the US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice, President Barack Obama has announced that Senator John Kerry was his choice for Hillary Clinton’s replacement. Senator Kerry brings an impressive set of credentials to the job. A fifth term senator and an unsuccessful contender for the presidency in 2004, he is also the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a position that he has used to good effect to gain friends and confidence virtually all over the world. President Obama is not unjustified in thinking that Mr Kerry’s confirmation will have smooth sailing through Congress. Credentials and experience of foreign affairs notwithstanding, Senator Kerry has an unenviable task before him. The possibility of President Obama nominating former Republican senator Chuck Hagel to replace Mr Panetta at Defence has led observers to comment that the possible induction of two people on key posts who agree with the president’s plans for reducing US military involvement could mean an early US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Questions still linger whether post-withdrawal Afghanistan will see peace return or a continuing civil war that the Afghan security forces trained by ISAF will have a hard time controlling. Nevertheless, it is clear that President Obama is determined to reverse his predecessor George Bush’s military adventures abroad, Iraq having already seen a US withdrawal and Afghanistan poised to follow suit. The US resembles today a colossus with feet of clay, the world’s pre-eminent military power by many times but a country going through one of the worst recessions since the Great Crash of the late 1920s. The incoming secretary of state will have his job cut out for him when he tackles some of the thorny and intractable issues engaging Washington’s attention. First and foremost is the conflict with Iran over its nuclear programme, followed in quick succession by the war raging in Syria, the Middle East in turmoil over the (continuing) Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the unanticipated results of the Arab Spring, managing the transition in Afghanistan in a satisfactory manner, consolidating relations with Pakistan, and overseeing the new strategic thrust of the so-called Asia pivot. The US under Obama may be turning the page on a decade of wars overseas, but the world today is far more complex, in flux, and in a process of the realignment of power amongst older and newer emerging centres. President Obama underlined that Kerry will have to cope with using US power responsibly, a formulation that simplifies a very complex task in an increasingly complex post-cold war world. Kerry is considered a friend of Pakistan and has in the past acted as an informal trouble shooter for President Obama, notably over the Raymond Davis affair, the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, and the killing of Pakistani border troops by a NATO attack that virtually unravelled the relationship, now slowly but surely on the mend. He will remain etched in Pakistani memory as one of the authors if not prime mover of the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act that offered Pakistan $ 7.5 billion in economic assistance over five years. While Islamabad will welcome dealing with an old friend at State, the world will watch the new inductee to see if some of the old and intractable issues like the Palestinian misery tend towards a more positive role by Washington and not, as in the past, blind support to Israel. Kerry may also be well placed to manage the Iran problem through diplomacy rather than sabre-rattling. If he can pull off an Afghanistan withdrawal amidst a negotiated political settlement of that long running war, the relationship with Islamabad will also be benefited in its wake. We wish Senator Kerry good luck in his tough new assignment and hope he lives up to the world’s expectations of him and his country.