Daily Times Editorial May 17, 2011

Critical moment

US Senator John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and known to be sympathetically inclined towards Pakistan, has delivered a chilling message on his arrival in Islamabad from Kabul. He says US-Pakistan relations are at a “critical moment” in the aftermath of Osama bin Laden’s killing and that there are growing calls in the US to cut aid to Pakistan. The Senator acknowledges the sacrifices of Pakistan in the struggle against terrorism, but in the very next breath asserts that there are deep reservations over Pakistan’s consistent commitment against all forms of terrorism and some disturbing evidence on Pakistani knowledge of and links with elements inimical to US interests. He revealed that on a visit to the Afghan eastern province of Khost, he was briefed on Taliban safe havens just across the border with Pakistan in North Waziristan. While lauding past Pakistani cooperation, including allowing the CIA to operate on Pakistani soil, which had led the US to Osama, some actions such as the purported links to the Afghan Taliban troubled the Senator.
Senator Kerry’s fence mending visit comes at a time when reports in the US media (e.g. The Washington Post) claim the US administration is divided on what approach to adopt now towards Pakistan. Some officials, especially in the White House, are reported to have advocated a tough response, especially if access is denied to the materials captured by Pakistan from Osama’s hideout after the US commandos had departed. This section in the US administration is convinced that it cannot just be business as usual with Pakistan. Islamabad faces a big choice in their view, a characterisation reminiscent of former President Bush’s ultimatum of “Either you are with us or against us” immediately following 9/11. The administration’s hardliners assert that people who were prepared to listen to Pakistan’s story for a long time are no longer receptive. This means that our reminders of our sacrifices in the struggle against terrorism fail to cut much ice in the changed circumstances. It must also be pointed out though that even the hardliners have no good alternatives to trying to repair the relationship with Pakistan and seek its cooperation against terrorism and to assist its withdrawal plans in Afghanistan.
And what of our response? While Senator Kerry and our ambassador to Washington Hussain Haqqani may be bending their backs in Islamabad to salvage something positive from the ruins of the relationship, cooperation from the Pakistani military and intelligence community is already withering, with reports in our media that the ISI has cut off relations with the CIA and US commandos on Pakistani soil on a training mission are being asked to pack up and return home. Seeking other options, Islamabad is looking to China, where the prime minister is on a visit, to bolster its international standing. China is not only Pakistan’s true and tested friend in good times and bad, it is Pakistan’s main arms and civilian nuclear technology supplier. In return, Pakistan has always stood by Beijing’s claims on Taiwan as part of China and seems willing to assist China in tackling its extremist problem in Xinjiang province, a legacy of the spread of terrorism in the region during the protracted Afghan wars of the last four decades. China may not yet be at the level of technological development and sophistication of the west, but its reliability must weigh heavily in the balance, especially in the present uncertain scenario.
A survey of that scenario reveals disturbing signs that the US, having lost patience with Pakistan after the Osama episode, has decided to forego its ‘gently, gently’ approach towards Pakistan and decided to put the squeeze on Islamabad. That places the Kerry visit centre-stage. If even a friend of Pakistan such as Senator Kerry returns from his visit with a changed mind, severe consequences, starting with aid, trade and investment curtailment could be followed by more unilateral actions that would ruin whatever remains of the tattered relationship. Cutting off US/NATO logistics for the Afghan theatre would be the last act in a downward spiralling disaster drop scene.