Daily Times Editorial March 15, 2014

Economic outlook IMF sources reveal that they have been informed by the Pakistan government about the source of the $1.5 billion injected into the Pakistan Development Fund (PDF) in recent days, which the rupee’s dramatic appreciation against the dollar is being ascribed to. The source, according to these reports, is Saudi Arabia. So far, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar and officials have been extremely cagey about the source of the injection. Although it has helped the rupee exchange rate to rise to Rs 98 and less against the dollar, the Senate saw an adjournment motion moved by the PPP’s Senator Farhatullah Babar seeking details of the source and the terms on which it has been accepted, including suspicions that it may have been in return for Pakistan’s support to the Saudi policy of helping the rebels in Syria, whom the Saudis have been backing to the hilt from day one. Senator Farhatullah Babar has cautioned the government against any adventurism by plunging Pakistan into another conflict when the effects of our involvement in Afghanistan have proved so damaging. Of course the masses are still waiting for the benefits of the rupee’s appreciation to be passed on to them after imports of POL products and other imported items will decline in price. Instead, it appears it is business as usual if the NEPRA permission to eight DISCOs to raise their electricity tariff by over Rs 2 per unit under the head of fuel adjustment charges is taken into account. The increase is not applicable to KESC or lifeline consumers, but will obviously feed into inflation. Food prices continue to rise, straining poor and even middle class families’ household budget. While foreign exchange reserves have risen by $ 702 million to $ 9,375.7 million in total for the week ending March 7 ($ 4,623 million held by the State Bank of Pakistan and $ 4,753 million by the commercial banks), with expected inflows from the IMF tranche of $ 540 million, launch of a Eurobond of $ 500 million in April and other expected inflows, the real test of the government’s confidence about actually receiving the inflows and controlling inflation will be reflected in the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP’s) announcement of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) today. The SBP raised rates 50 bps in September and November 2013 on a deteriorating balance of payments position and inflationary concerns. In January 2014 the SBP held the rate unchanged on the expectation of a reduction in inflation (which has yet to come to pass) and uncertainty regarding inflows. If the SBP is consistent with its previous practice, analysts expect a significant reduction in the base rate. If it does not, the positive spin being put on the economy’s indicators will receive a cold shower. While the explanation for the dramatic rise of the rupee is to be sought in friendly countries’ contribution to the PDF and other inflows in pocket or expected, exporters, particularly textiles, are bleating about the effect on their competitiveness. They demand compensation for their ‘losses’ as a result of the rupee’s rise, which obviously makes our exports more expensive in rupee terms. Whether the habitual concession-seekers of the textile sector succeed in their plea or not, the fact remains that the only people delighted so far with the dollar’s decline vis-à-vis the rupee is the government, which is boasting of a decline in public debt overnight of Rs 800 billion. The dollar’s downward trend may be flattening out since the market players may regard purchases of the dollar at these reduced rates a worthwhile investment after being stung by its rapid decline in recent days. However, no one should be carried away by this temporary (momentary?) rise of the rupee in the light of the hard work still required to boost the economic essentials of the country that depend, not the least, on tackling terrorism, law and order, and the crippling energy crisis.

Daily Times Editorial March 12, 2014

Now another committee The government has embarked on another round of committee formation for negotiations with the Taliban. According to Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali, the new four-man committee will be the official negotiator of the government and will consist of three to four senior bureaucrats. In the light of the rejection by some political parties of the idea of having army representation in the committee, Chaudhry Nisar categorically said no army man would be part of the committee. However, an army officer would be detailed to liaise with the committee and provide intelligence and other inputs. The army would be part of all decisions taken by the committee, the minister clarified, perhaps to allay any impression that the army was not fully on board. The new committee is expected to draw members from FATA and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Meanwhile the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), having been asked by the government to name its representative for the committee, preferably Chief Minister Pervez Khattak in the government’s eyes, nominated MNA Gulzar Khan, himself a retired bureaucrat with long experience of FATA and tribal affairs, as its representative on the new committee. The PTI had Rustam Shah Mohmand as its representative on the now disbanded previous committee headed by the prime minister’s advisor on national affairs Irfan Siddiqui. No explanation has been forthcoming for the dissolution of the previous committee, what it had achieved in its relatively brief existence, or why it is being replaced. Speculation in the media has pointed to the disagreements between the members of the previous committee that had of late become public as the probable cause of the decision. The government and Irfan Siddiqui have been at pains to put the best face on the development by arguing that the committee had fulfilled its role in advancing contacts between the government and the Taliban and now its role was over. No such ‘limited’ role or mandate had been mentioned at the outset or the later activation of the committee. Perhaps the government has taken to heart the criticism that the committee was powerless to take decisions and a long, inconvenient, ineffective conduit for negotiations. If the new committee is truly empowered to take decisions, it may see a less inglorious existence. While Imran Khan is still fixated on drones and this being the Americans’ war despite the former having paused and the latter’s pain being inflicted on our bodies and souls, he stated that the proposal for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to set up its office in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa would be settled in consultation with the federal government. While many sceptics see the present ‘lull’ as a tactical pause by the TTP to regroup, the media exposure of the TTP and other extremists is a worrying concern since it projects the Taliban’s point of view, thereby violating the time-honoured approach not to allow the terrorists the oxygen of publicity. At the same time, certain media houses have been attacked, others threatened by the Taliban unless they toe their line. Ignoring the terrorists would be a better outcome if the media would dispense with its normal obsession with ‘breaking news’ in recognition of its national duty. Even if the new committee gets off the ground and the three days contacts (why three?), according to Chaudhry Nisar, lead to deciding the venue for the talks to follow, what the government needs to explain to the people is the agenda for the talks. Ambiguity may be good sometimes for conducting sensitive negotiations between parties with polarised positions, but the concerns regarding the Taliban’s stated position that they do not recognize the constitution or the democratic system and want them replaced by sharia according to their lights, a version unacceptable to the vast majority of the people of the country, dangles like a sword above our heads. Secrecy in delicate negotiations may be good, but the government owes the people some explanation what it hopes to achieve as an outcome of the talks and what it may be prepared to concede to the terrorists.

Daily Times Editorial March 11, 2014

Crisis and politics Appropriately, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Thar yesterday to see for himself the conditions in the drought-hit region and be briefed on the measures being taken for relief and succour to the suffering people of the area. The prime minister asked after patients admitted in the hospital in Mithi, along with PPP Patron-in-chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and both leaders distributed cheques amongst the victims of the disaster. Having been briefed by officials on the situation, the prime minister addressed the assembled residents of Mithi and promised the federal and provincial governments would ensure that their sufferings were eased and better times returned to their lives. He also announced a Rs one billion relief package for the disaster-hit area’s relief and rehabilitation. On the ground, reports speak of the army, Rangers and NGOs having set up relief camps. The army reports it has already distributed 45 tons of food and treated 1,625 patients in its field hospital so far. The Sindh government has also announced a food package of Rs 100 million, whereas Balochistan is dispatching 1,000 bags of rice to the area. In addition, Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah announced that compensation of Rs 200,000 would be paid to each family that had lost a child and the total number of children that had died would be released to the media. He also announced a scheme for 100 reverse osmosis plants to turn undrinkable water into water fit for human consumption. Wheat distribution, the chief minister revealed, had been doubled from 25 kilograms per family to 50 kilograms. Taluka (district) level committees were being set up comprising administration and food department officials to oversee a just distribution of wheat worth Rs 420 million, while another committee comprising one MNA, one MPA, one media person and local notables would monitor the whole process. The belated but positive response by the federal and provincial governments, army, paramilitary and civil society is cause for some satisfaction, but the blame game and polticisation of the disaster are leaving a bad taste in the mouth. For example, when Sindh’s chief and other ministers blame the media for exaggerating the disaster, the best reply was given by the Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Tassaduq Hussain Jillani during the suo motu hearing on the disaster when he said had it not been for the media reporting, the issue may have been swept under the carpet. The chief justice pinned the blame for the debacle squarely on the Sindh government and said our heads should hang in shame at the deaths of children and all else that had transpired in Thar. Despite the flow of relief and succour to the hapless victims of nature’s cruelty, the situation is far from stabilised. Reports speak of five more deaths of children in the Umerkot Civil Hospital and the continuing influx of more patients. More than 2,500 are hospitalised, straining the thin medical services in the region to breaking point. One report claims only 900 of the 47,000 flour bags available have been distributed so far. Other reports speak of the continuing migration of thousands of families to the irrigated areas of the province in search of water and food, selling their livestock for a song along the way to buy food for their families. While criticism of the Sindh government is rife, the temptation of our political parties to use all and every occasion to criticise their rivals needs to be resisted at this time of national calamity. Hamza Shahbaz Sharif’s and the Sindhi nationalist parties’ lambasting of the Sindh PPP government at this juncture appears therefore to be ill timed and in bad taste. What is relevant though is what the prime minister said about not just confining ourselves to providing relief for the present crisis but finding ways and means to avoid such catastrophes in future. If there is any silver lining in this tragedy, it could be the fact that it has focused minds on a permanent, not temporary, solution to Thar’s recurring woes.

Daily Times Editorial March 10, 2014

The Thar tragedy The tragedy of about 122 children’s death in Tharparkar over the last three or so months has shaken the top hierarchy of the country. Belatedly, the authorities have swung into action to bring relief to the suffering populace. The Sindh government is blaming the area’s bureaucracy for negligence and continuing lack of cooperation in the relief effort. Heads have rolled, prominent among them the Mirpurkhas Commissioner, the Thar Deputy Commissioner and some medical personnel. The cause of the children’s deaths, however, has become embroiled in controversy, not the least because of attempts by the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in Sindh to allay the political damage by ascribing a variety of causes for the deaths. The attempt does not, however, nullify the perception that the cause of death may have been different in different parts of the area, but arguably they can all be traced to the common thread that runs through the narrative: drought, leading to lack of water, bad distribution of food, leading to malnutrition and various fatal diseases amongst the children, and most damagingly, neglect and a tragically belated response. To say, for example, that drought is a frequently recurring phenomenon in the desert region hardly explains why, when some five talukas (districts) of the six in Tharparkar received little or no rain this season, the alarm bells did not go off. If anything, complacency laces the authorities’ and some commentators’ statements that the people of the area traditionally migrate to the irrigated districts seasonally and in times of drought to find work in harvesting. In other words, the people are left to their own devices in times of hardship. Of all the rural areas of Pakistan, some like Tharparkar show a degree of official negligence, apathy, corruption, avoidable shortages and poor governance to add to the woes imposed by natural disasters like droughts. Such disasters are almost commonplace in the desert. The 2000 drought reportedly decimated the livestock population of the area, a critical source of livelihood for the populace. The authorities do not appear to have put in place since an efficacious system of veterinary services that could prevent avoidable losses of livestock, as the relatively smaller but nevertheless hurtful losses of livestock in 2011-12 show. The current crisis indicates continuing neglect and absence of any attempt to address, let alone pre-empt, the ravages of nature on the already precarious existence of the people of the area. If the bureaucracy in its time-honoured fashion is indifferent to the recurring plight of the people of the area, where are the elected representatives, ministers in charge, not to mention the chief minister? Why has it taken media reports of the children’s deaths to stir the conscience of elected politicians whose ultimate responsibility the welfare of citizens is? Where is, if at all it exists, the reporting system of the Sindh government? The Sindh government may have assuaged its conscience by dismissing some responsible officials and after the event rushing food, water, medicines and other items of relief to the stricken districts, but the question of accountability is not fully answered by such attempts at shifting the blame onto local officials while the political leaders of the province try to present themselves as pure as driven snow. To their credit, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has ordered all-out aid to the people of the area, the judiciary, civil and military, and other provinces’ response is heartening. The prime minister sys the National Disaster Management Authority is keeping him informed, but where was the Authority all these months while little bodies were wasting away and piling up in the sandy wastes of Thar? There is talk of a judicial inquiry into the debacle, but that can only be useful if it arrives at recommendations that, if implemented, could prevent such tragedies in future. The provincial governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have announced aid packages. The military and its medical corps have deployed in the area to bring relief and healthcare to the suffering populace, particularly children. This is of course all to the good, but if any lessons are to be learnt from this recurring human tragedy in one of the poorest, most difficult natural environments of the country, compounded by the man-made disaster because of negligence, they are that the system, whether democratic or other, deserves little or no respect if it ignores and neglects the poorest of the poor amongst its citizens, and carries on blithely as though business can continue as usual.

Daily Times Editorial March 9, 2014

Inching towards military operation? All the signs point towards the government inching slowly but surely towards a recognition of the inevitability of a military campaign if the current on-again-off-again talks with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fail. Defence Minister Khwaja Asif, widely considered till now amongst the government’s ministers as a voice for peace through negotiations, has in an interview spelt out the evolving view in the government regarding the talks process. The minister warned that if the talks fail, or the TTP and its affiliates violate the ‘ceasefire’, a military operation could follow within this month. Naturally this departure will be seen in the light of the attack on a courts complex in Islamabad recently. That attack came in the middle of efforts to get the talks process, already stalled because of the beheading of 23 Frontier Constabulary hostages in the custody of the Taliban, restarted. Any violation of the ceasefire, said Khwaja Asif, and that includes any so-called ‘splinter’ groups that the TTP is trying to 'distance' itself from, will invite a resumption of the air strikes and other actions that had persuaded the TTP earlier to sue for a ceasefire. The minister categorically stated that we are not going to take this lying down. He went on to argue that there are now very few takers for the argument that the Taliban are committed to dialogue. On the army’s role, Khwaja Asif diplomatically evaded any categorical statement regarding the possibility of the military being represented on the ‘new’ negotiating committee the government is contemplating by saying the army’s input is very valuable. He expressed scepticism about the TTP’s contention that the Islamabad attack was by a splinter group not under the control of the TTP. He went on to point out that in the light of the withdrawal of western forces from Afghanistan by year’s end, if the Afghan Taliban manage to get a foothold in the eastern and southeastern provinces of our neighbouring country close to the border, it would provide the Pakistani Taliban with a big boost, safe havens across the border and a powerhouse behind them in the shape of a resurgent Afghan Taliban. It may be recalled that all the reports speak of Mulla Fazlullah, the current chief of the TTP, having found a safe haven across the border under the umbrella, it may be noted, of the Haqqani network. Meanwhile in the monthly Corps Commanders meeting in Rawalpindi, the military’s top brass came out in guarded fashion on the security situation and the peace negotiations. They promised a robust response if attacks continued, but expressed some concern between the lines at the suspension of the air strikes that have proved so effective. Despite the former government negotiating committee’s head Irfan Siddiqui and Information Minister Pervaiz Rashid insisting the army should be represented in the reconstituted committee, the Corps Commanders were far from forthcoming, and in fact delivered the message indirectly that they considered the peace talks as an initiative of the government, i.e. they were perhaps not willing to take on the burden of a talks process they may be sceptical of the outcome of ab initio. This is what the Leader of the Opposition Syed Khursheed Shah of the PPP has been stressing of late. He is convinced that if the army is dragged into the talks, it may end up being blamed for their breakdown. However, speaking in the National Assembly, Khursheed Shah complained of the attitude of the government towards the opposition despite the latter’s consistent and unstinted support to the talks process. Khursheed Shah and both houses of parliament questioned Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali’s statements regarding the circumstances surrounding the killing of a judge in the Islamabad attack and giving a ‘certificate’ of patriotism to the majority of the Taliban. Contrary to Khwaja Asif’s take, it seems the only insistent pushers of the talks process are now Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhry Nisar. Both gentlemen should realise that they are sticking their necks out and could end up on a limb if the talks fail and they have to then beat a hasty retreat to a position where a military operation becomes inevitable. Too much ‘investment’ in a potentially unsuccessful option would leave them with a huge credibility gap.

Fighting while ‘talking’ The state of security in the country generally, and in the federal capital Islamabad in particular, was badly exposed the other day when the main courthouse complex in the heart of the city was attacked by terrorist gunmen and suicide bombers. The security arrangements were so lax that the gunmen comfortably walked in, sprayed the area with gunfire and, when challenged by whatever rudimentary police presence was available, blew themselves up. In the melee, Additional District and Sessions Judge Rafaqat Awan was particularly targeted it seems. Whether this had anything to do with his rejection last year of a plea to order a murder case against Musharraf for authorising the Lal Masjid operation in 2007 is not known. Some reports speak of one gunman deliberately gunning down the judge after asking him to say his final prayers. The carnage left 11 people dead, including the judge, and 25 injured. The policemen on duty, despite reportedly being untrained in anti-terror operations, resisted valiantly to the extent they could, but the general police response to the emergency was tardy at best. The incident has proved seriously embarrassing for the government in general, but particularly for Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar, who had said only the other day that Islamabad was secure. In what is emerging as a pattern in such attacks, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) denied responsibility for this as well as another attack in Khyber Agency that killed two soldiers and wounded six. A ‘new’ outfit calling itself Ahrarul Hind claimed responsibility for the Islamabad attack. Not much is known about the shadowy group, except that they have rejected the idea of a ceasefire confined to the tribal areas since they claim to be urban-based. In the murky world of the jihadi groups, it is difficult to determine whether the ostensible ‘differences’ that come to light from time to time amongst various groups are real or a tactical device to maintain credible deniability. The attack in Islamabad has evoked the usual round of condemnations, ‘demands’ and comments. For example, the Opposition in the National Assembly decried the attack as a ‘grave security failure’, to which the redoubtable Chaudhry replied that point scoring on such instances would be a great injustice to the government and the Opposition should instead give concrete suggestions to tackle the problem. Chaudhry Nisar told the house that seven suspects were in custody and the government was pursuing three lines of inquiry: whether the TTP carried out the attack, whether it is the work of forces opposed to the dialogue, and third whether there is any ‘international’ connection. While no possibility should be overlooked in an investigation, it is difficult to take seriously the second and third lines of inquiry, if for no other reason because conspiracy theories aside, there is so far no evidence that could point in the direction of the latter two possibilities, subjective statements by sundry apologists of the Taliban like Maulana Samiul Haq and Imran Khan notwithstanding. Even Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif chimed in with the theory of unnamed ‘forces’ inimical to the government’s peace efforts sabotaging the negotiations. The top civilian and military brass did meet to discuss the security situation generally and the Islamabad attack in particular, but not much is known of what transpired. The prime minister was to meet the government’s negotiating team yesterday (Tuesday). What remains to be seen is whether the team, reportedly divided internally, will survive and play some further role or be disbanded as some of its members have suggested. While the Senate has demanded a detailed statement by the government on the Islamabad incident, MQM’s Altaf Hussain, from the safety of London, has urged the government to hit back and crush the terrorists. The Supreme Court Chief Justice has taken suo motu notice of the incident and the lawyers’ community throughout the country has boycotted the courts on Tuesday in protest at the attack on the judicial system of the country. The only thing remaining now is to see what, if any, the response of the government will be to the strategy and tactics of the Taliban to pretend to be ‘talking’ while fighting.

Daily Times Editorial March 3, 2014

Ceasefire? The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP’s) announcement of a one month ceasefire, ostensibly to give the stalled peace talks another chance, was punctuated by the attack on an anti-polio team in Khyber Agency that left 13 people dead and 11 injured. Most of the dead and injured were from the security detail accompanying the anti-polio team. This incident happened despite the TTP’s statement announcing the ceasefire ‘advising’ all its affiliates and sub-groups to respect the decision and not carry out any attacks. The episode highlights the problems underlying talking to the Taliban when it is far from certain just how much control the TTP exercises over its ‘franchisees’ and sub-groups. A recent example of this phenomenon was the beheading of 23 FC troops by a local group in Mohmand Agency, a horrible crime against helpless prisoners just when the nominated negotiation committees of both sides were engaging in probing the way forward. The massacre led to the suspension of the talks by the government, with the condition that it would not be restarted unless the TTP declared a ceasefire. Since that condition has been met, at least on paper, and the TTP has quietly dropped its earlier preconditions for talks of the army’s withdrawal from FATA and the release of (non-existent as it turned out) women and children prisoners, it would be logical to assume, and there are indications to this effect, that the resumption of the talks is now on the cards. However, this time there are demands from various quarters that the talks should be conducted directly between the government and the Taliban, rather than the rather cumbersome channel of the nominated committees of both sides. If this comes to pass, a question mark will arise over the future of these committees. What may ease the path of direct talks are the media reports that speak of certain ‘guarantees’ having been extended by the government to the TTP, which may include the safety and security of any negotiators the Taliban may choose to talk to the government. On its part, the TTP says the government must take the talks seriously and stay away from ‘mundane’ politics on the issue (whatever that means). Almost all the political parties have welcomed the TTP’s announcement of a ceasefire, with some expressing reservations too. While the other leaderships have concentrated on the ceasefire announcement, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s is the ‘lone’ voice of condemnation of the attack on the anti-polio team. It is as though the other parties chose to shut their eyes to the ‘bad news’ so as not to rock the still precarious boat of the impending breakthrough. Maulana Fazlur Rehman of the JUI-F wants another All Parties Conference, while Zahid Khan of the ANP, a party that has been in the crosshairs of the Taliban for years, doubts the sincerity of the Taliban and argues that there is no guarantee that different groups under the umbrella of the TTP will stop their attacks. Certainly the attack in Khyber Agency lends weight to his concern. Before we wax lyrical about the current development, it may be salutary to reflect on what may have brought about the apparent ‘change of heart’ amongst the Taliban, and what may follow. We have argued in this space that negotiations must be conducted from a position of strength, not on one’s knees. The effective blows struck by the military at Taliban bases in FATA in recent days cannot be ignored as perhaps the main factor that has led to the ceasefire announcement. It may be that the TTP is hurting from the strikes and needs a breather to regroup and find ways and means to avoid the damage the strikes have wrought. Regrouping and strengthening themselves during pauses in fighting as a result of peace deals has been the pattern for many years of the Taliban’s tactics. Whether this pause will be any different only time will tell. However, the state cannot let its guard down and must continue with its preparations, post haste, of a new and effective security architecture that will better place the government and the security forces to combat whatever the TTP may be planning to throw at them in the future.