Saturday, April 30, 2011

Daily Times Editorial May 1, 2011

New coalition

In the second round of talks in as many days, President Asif Ali Zardari and Chaudhry Shujaat have finalised the terms of the agreement for the PML-Q to join the ruling coalition. The terms more or less follow the expected contours. Chaudhry Pervez Elahi will be offered the post of deputy prime minister, for which some legal luminaries argue, there is no need for a constitutional amendment. A mere change in the Rules of Business by the prime minister will suffice. Of course the prime minister is still missing from these deliberations, although he has publicly endorsed the decisions of his party’s co-chairperson in advance even of being briefed. Some observers feel the creation of the deputy prime minister’s post implies a dilution of the powers of the prime minister. That remains to be seen. But the significant fact that Chaudhry Pervez Elahi will enjoy two seats for his office, one in the Prime Minister’s Secretariat in Islamabad and one camp office in the State Guest House in Lahore may offer a clue as to the real purpose behind the induction of Chaudhry Pervez to the high office. Clearly, if he will be ‘operating’ from Lahore, that constitutes a threat to the ruling PML-N in Punjab. The latter is rumoured to be considering the resurrection of the IJI (second) to counter the move perceived by it as a direct assault on its grip on Punjab. There is also some loud thinking in the PML-N circles to press for snap polls before the March 2012 Senate elections, in which the PML-N stands to lose out, having no representation in Sindh or Balochistan provinces.
In addition to the prized new slot of deputy prime minister, the PML-Q seems set to acquire six ministries – health, trade and commerce, petroleum, industries, agriculture and information technology – all important economic and social subjects. Also, they have been offered six slots of ministers of state, three advisors to the prime minister, and the UN ambassadorship. This last position was speculated to have been reserved for the PML-Q secretary general Mushahid Hussain. However, some reports in the media cast suspicion on whether Mushahid will accept the new coalition per se, let alone the UN ambassadorship. Since the gentleman is on an extended tour abroad, we will not know his response until the ink is already dry on the agreement expected to be signed next week.
There are said to be other dissenters within the PML-Q who remain unreconciled to joining the PPP-led coalition. Whether they will take the time-honoured route of all dissenters of PMLs and form their own faction or leave the party altogether remains open to question. One prominent PML-Q leader who has been estranged from his former party the PPP and the president has now been reconciled with both when he accompanied Chaudhry Shujaat for the meeting with the president. Faisal Saleh Hayat is expected to get an important ministry and the support of the PPP in his Jhang constituency in the next elections. The PPP will reportedly dump its own candidate, Syeda Abida Hussain, Hayat’s long-time rival.
The new emerging coalition has also agreed, on the PML-Q’s insistence, to retain the Higher Education Commission (HEC) at the Centre along with the National Curriculum and National Drug Council. The retreat by the PPP on the devolution of the HEC will surely not sit well with the architect of the 18th Amendment, Senator Raza Rabbani. These are the costs of forging the new alignment, most of which appear to be to the detriment of the PPP. However, we must not lose sight of what the PPP gains from the new arrangement. It wills secure a comfortable majority in parliament, get the budget passed (to be presented on May 28 we now learn from Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh’s announcement), and insert its PML-Q Trojan horse into the PML-N’s jealously guarded Punjab ‘fort’. And this despite the soothing noises by Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani that the PPP will not destabilise Punjab. A period of rough and tumble politics seems imminent.

Friday, April 29, 2011

Daily Times editorial April 30, 2011

Shifting political landscape

The agreement between the PML-Q and the PPP for the former to join the ruling coalition is all but signed, sealed and delivered. That final step too may not be long in coming, perhaps within the week. The terms of endearment appear to have been settled in a meeting at the presidency between the president and the Chaudrys. Media speculation as to the terms range from the deputy prime minister’s slot for Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, five federal ministries, seven ministers of state, one advisorship with the status of a federal minister, one provincial advisorship each in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, and Mushahid Hussain to replace Hussain Haroon as the permanent representative at the UN. This seems quite a hefty price the PML-Q has extracted, even if one does not take into account moves and rumours that Chaudhry Pervez’s son Moonis Elahi will be let off in the corruption case against him. Also included are seat adjustments between the new ‘friends’ in the next general elections and the Punjab provincial elections (the last meant to hit the PML-N), and the Senate elections in 2012. What does the PML-Q bring to the table? High sounding rhetoric about being not so much interested in ministries as concerned about the state of affairs of the country, which require all parties to pull together in a “national reconciliation government”. The PML-Q is said to have prepared a plan to revive the crippled economy, improve law and order, address the energy crisis, and bring prices of essential goods under control. In addition, President Asif Ali Zardari is said to have asked Chaudhry Shujaat to persuade the JUI-F and the MQM to return to the coalition.
What does the PPP gain from this devil’s bargain between the erstwhile ‘Qatil (Murderer) League (so characterised by the PPP after Benazir Bhutto’s assassination) and the leading party in the coalition? First and foremost, a comprehensive majority in parliament, which safeguards it against any no-confidence move against it, and will be very useful come time to have the budget passed in June. Notable in all this toing and froing is the studied absence of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, said to be estranged from the Chaudrys and keeping himself well away from the whole deal. It may be that once the agreement is finalised, the president and co-chairperson of the PPP will be able to persuade his prime minister of the need for a pragmatic realignment if the PPP-led government is to complete its tenure. That is not to say that there has not been considerable heartburn over this turn in the ranks of both the new coalition partners. Nevertheless, real politik and the exigencies of coalition politics, which promises to be the state of affairs for the foreseeable future, seem to have won the day over the naysayers on both sides.
This turn of events may help to explain the extraordinarily acerbic exchanges over the past few days between the ‘revived, real opposition’, the PML-N, and the PPP in the National Assembly. Could it be that the PML-N feels genuinely threatened by the new alignment, especially in its home turf of Punjab? It may be too early to speculate along this line of thought, but there is no denying that the shifting political landscape proves once again the old adage: there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics. Whether this realignment will help the country’s plight or go down in history as ‘failure piled on top of failure’ can only be settled once the new coalition actually comes into existence and starts functioning. The challenges are indeed immense. The capacity to address them remains to be proved.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Daily Times Editorial April 29, 2011

ISI in the crossfire

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has felt compelled to bat repeatedly in defence of the ISI in recent days. On Wednesday, he had to mount his third defence of the premier intelligence agency in the National Assembly in response to Leader of the Opposition Chaudhry Nisar Ali’s continued hammering of the issue. The redoubtable Chaudhry has kept up his tirade over the last few days against the government for its alleged apathy on several issues, in particular the ISI, drone attacks and the Raymond Davis affair. Chaudhry Nisar demanded answers why the ISI chief’s recent visit to Washington was cut short to one day instead of the scheduled three, and whether this had contributed to the recent low ebb in ISI-CIA relations and the refusal by the CIA to halt drone attacks. The opposition leader claimed he had substantial evidence regarding the Davis case and who had facilitated his release. Stating that he was ready to share the evidence, he qualified it by saying he would not share it with the government but with the house, either in open session or in-camera. He ended by asking the government to summon officials of the country’s intelligence agencies in a session of parliament and ask them to clear their position in the Davis issue.
The prime minister, for the third time in as many days, reiterated his by now well known tune. He asserted that the ISI was under the control of the government, reports to the government, does nothing without the government’s knowledge or against the national interest, and has never ventured into any ‘project’ without proper governmental authorisation. In other words, and in short, the ISI was under the government’s instructions. The prime minister repeated these arguments in a public rally near Islamabad the same day. On the Davis affair, the prime minister stated in the house the usual argument about the case having been decided by an independent court, with no role played by the federal or provincial government.
After this ringing endorsement, lest we are lulled into a soporific confidence in everything being under the government’s total control, including the ISI, it may be useful to contemplate that in our history, rightly or wrongly, the ISI has acquired an unenviable reputation for straying beyond its mandate. Not only does this charge hinge on what critics allege is the ISI’s manipulation of national politics in the interests of the military establishment’s (permanent) agenda, the ISI has also figured centre-stage whenever the question of Afghanistan or domestic terrorism comes up. It may be argued that not all this notoriety is deserved, but the fact remains that inside the country, the region, and the world at large, the ISI has become too prominent for an intelligence agency expected to operate ‘quietly’. A parallel example may be culled from US history in the last gasps of the twentieth century, when the infamous CIA lost its sheen and was finally shackled by new oversight procedures to avoid illegal activities. We in Pakistan may not be at the stage of the kind of ‘glasnost and perestroika’ that struck the CIA in the post-Vietnam war period, but it would arguably be in the best interests of all state stakeholders to put their heads together and refigure, if not curtail, the ISI’s political role (acquired incrementally since Zulfikar Ali Bhutto set up the first political cell in the ISI in the 1970s) and return it to its original mandate: an internal services intelligence arm organised on highly professional lines and freed of the burden and accompanying calumny of being accused of interference in politics, internal and international.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Daily Times editorial April 27, 2011

Navy bus bombings

In two horrendous bombings of Navy buses transporting personnel to work early morning in Karachi on Tuesday, four people were killed and 56 wounded of a total of 85 passengers on both buses. This is the first major attack on the armed forces since the 2004 attack on the Karachi corps commander in which he luckily escaped harm. The modus operandi was to use remote detonators imbedded in cell phones. It is also an eerie reminder of the attacks in Rawalpindi some time ago on an army surgeon and a bus transporting ISI personnel. The police say it seems that the terrorists were in sight of the two buses and detonated the bombs as the buses went by. Since the Navy buses carried commercial number plates rather than official Navy ones, it is obvious that the terrorists not only displayed extraordinary coordination in detonating the two devices within minutes of each other, they had probably been watching and casing out the route and timings of the buses before the incident.
The Taliban have claimed responsibility and vowed more attacks on the security forces on the argument that “…they are killing their own people in Waziristan and elsewhere at the behest of the US”. Taking this argument at face value, what are the Taliban themselves doing? Are they not also “killing their own people”? Whereas Imran Khan and the right wing parties are raising Cain over the drone attacks, one comparison of the lethal toll of bombings and drone attacks shows the former have swallowed up more than 35,000 lives since the terror campaign began in 2007, whereas drone strikes have accounted for less than 2,000. Not that any innocent life can be measured in this grisly game of numbers. But there needs to be some perspective brought to the debate. The greater threat, not only to the armed forces, but also ordinary citizens is from the terrorist bombers. The hullabaloo of the right about the innocent victims of the drones has yet to demonstrate how many of the 2,000 killed in such strikes were terrorists and how many ‘collateral damage’.
The Chief Minister of Sindh, Syed Qaim Ali Shah has revealed that the government had received intelligence reports about a potential terrorist attack. However, he defended the police and security forces on the argument that in a metropolis like Karachi, it is not possible to search every inch of the city. That is reasonable, but it points to the need for better real time intelligence if such attacks are to be pre-empted. That is only possible if timely information is available from within the ranks of the terrorist organisations, implying that pre-emption is not possible without the intelligence services infiltrating the bombers’ groups.
The Karachi bombings are a grim reminder of the caution that COAS General Kayani’s assertion the other day that the terrorists’ “back has been broken” should not make us complacent. Even if, as the COAS argued, terrorism in Pakistan is in its death throes, it still retains the capability of deadly asymmetrical strikes that involve heavy loss of life and property. The terrorists are a formidable foe, not to be taken lightly, even if their formerly safe base areas in FATA have been under military attack with considerable success. Nevertheless, both in FATA and in the rest of the country, the hydra of terrorism still has enough breath to wreak havoc from time to time. This protracted struggle against this Frankenstein’s monster requires many years yet of intense effort before peace can be restored to the country. And achieving that peace is unfortunately tied up with events in Afghanistan and their spillover effects, for which a revisit to the distinction between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban is necessary to reassess the internal nexus between the two sides of this artificial division between those who challenge the writ of the Pakistani state and those who serve its strategic purposes.

Daily Times Editorial Jan 5, 2010

Zardari’s revelation

President Asif Ali Zardari had set tongues wagging and the rumour mills grinding overtime when in a speech the other day, he said he would use his “political weapons” against his detractors and critics, whom he has accused numerous times in recent days of seeking his ouster through unconstitutional means. Some took this to imply a veiled threat. Now, the president has revealed his hand. The “political weapons” turn out to be the electoral college that voted him overwhelmingly into the presidency last September. Even as he mentioned that the weapons were none other than the assemblies in an interview with BBC Urdu Service, the Balochistan Assembly was passing a unanimous resolution of support for him. The resolution expressed full confidence in his leadership, appreciated his key role in evolving a new consensus formula on the 7th National Finance Commission Award, and called him the symbol of the unity of the federation. With the ringing endorsement of the Balochistan Assembly under his belt, the president can look forward, according to reports, to a similar resolution of support from the NWFP Assembly. It is even being reported that the Sindh Assembly, which had earlier passed a resolution to this effect, could be persuaded in the emerging circumstances to repeat that performance to send a clear message to all and sundry. Not only all this, the sessions of the National Assembly and Senate summoned by the president may see similar moves too.
Inevitably, when all the houses seem to be getting ready to speak with one voice on the issue, the focus will now shift to the Punjab Assembly, where the PPP is part of the coalition government led by the PML-N. Whether the Punjab Assembly will join in, and whether the president can command a unanimous resolution in that house remains to be seen. However, were Punjab to seem out of step with the rest of the assemblies, that will raise concerns about the impact of such an ‘absence’ on the unity and solidarity of the federation, Punjab having been in the dock in the past as the ‘big brother’ who always hogs the lion’s share of the cake and is responsible for the past domination of national life by its ruling elite at the expense, it is alleged, of the rest of the provinces. The good effects of the recently arrived at consensus formula for the National Finance Commission Award could be washed away if a negative perception about the most populous and developed province were once more to set in because of any such development.
The strategy of calling on the assemblies on an issue of political import has been used once before by the president. The occasion was the desired ouster of former president General Pervez Musharraf, who was left with little choice but to resign when all the assemblies passed unanimous resolutions asking him to go and it became clear that his own institution, the army, had also abandoned him. The strategy’s use the second time round is aimed at giving a resounding blow to the campaign being run by certain quarters to discredit the president and the PPP-led government to the point where their departure becomes almost an inevitability. If the elected representatives en masse endorse the president and thereby the government led by his party, it would blow a big hole in the adverse campaign mentioned above.
The president seems to have been finally stung out of his silence and bunker mentality. He has not only come out on tours to ensure he is seen in public, he has been using every such occasion to come out swinging against his opponents and sundry unnamed ‘conspirators’. While no exception can be taken to the president politically defending himself through perfectly legitimate moves, it would be best if he avoided the combative and sometimes derisory language being used against him by his opponents and thereby safeguarded the dignity of the high office he holds.

Daily Times editorial Nov 26, 2009

Zardari throws down the gauntlet

President Asif Ali Zardari delivered a hard-hitting speech at the PPP’s foundation day rally in Karachi, albeit from the presidency in Islamabad. Breaking his silence over what he termed were conspiracies being hatched to weaken his presidency and the PPP government, he vowed to fight all the “political actors” out to destabilise the democratic system. One media group in particular, which has for some time now has been waging what some have described as a concerted, motivated, vitriolic (at times bordering on the indecent) campaign against the incumbent in the presidency and the government led by the party of which he is the co-chairperson, came in for some harsh stick in the president’s address. Labelling them “pranksters masquerading as political actors”, he singled out the group’s editor and some TV anchorpersons for his harshest comments. He argued that neither the political parties nor the establishment were involved in trying to derail the system, only some “political jokers” were responsible for what he said was a vicious campaign to destabilise the government. He advised all such aspirants to a role in politics and those parties that had boycotted the last elections to wait their turn at the next elections, since the PPP and he had a mandate for five years and would see it through. Only the masses had the right to decide the fate of the PPP at the next elections, the president asserted.
It should not perhaps come as a surprise that the president has finally responded in like fashion to the heaps of calumny some media persons, and one group in particular, have been throwing at his person and the government for many months now. Pakistani politics is not known for civilised restraint, and the president may be forgiven for being all too human and succumbing to resentment after admirably holding his peace for all this time. Having said that, even if some concession is made to the fact that it was a political rally and the president was speaking in the avatar of the party co-chairperson, perhaps dignifying the visceral campaign against him and the government in mocking terms was not the right way to counter the one-sided tide. The PPP continues to suffer from a dearth of good media managers and spokespeople who can effectively counter criticism in an age of free media. Having vented his spleen, perhaps the co-chairperson should consider this weakness in the ranks of his party and government and take steps to bring forward people who do their homework diligently and are therefore well prepared against any onslaught, no matter from what quarter it emanates.
As to the media group in question, they too need to do some soul searching to establish whether their practices of recent days are in conformity with best practice in journalism. Personalised vitriol may vent anger, but does not meet the test of impartiality, accuracy and restraint in recognition of the respect due to the head of state and high government functionaries. After all, the exchange should not degenerate to the level of a street brawl. None of the parties would come out of such a fracas smelling like roses.
Restraint is advised to all sides in this controversy. The media group should revisit its policies and attitudes. The government and the presidency should also find better ways to counter what they regard as the spin against them in the media, fighting unacceptable arguments with better ones. On no account should the authorities indulge in heavy-handed tactics to try and intimidate the media or any part of it, as that will, in present-day Pakistan, have the opposite effect to that intended. Now that all is in the open, perhaps a truce or cooling off period on all sides should be the order of the day.

Daily Times Editorial Dec 13, 2009

Widening offensive

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani may be forgiven for what appeared to be a Freudian slip or wishful thinking when he said that the military offensive in South Waziristan was almost over. That may be the hidden desire of many people in Pakistan, but the facts on the ground belie that hope. Of course, the prime minister attempted to correct the inadvertent impression he created earlier by stating that a military operation was in the offing in Orakzai Agency. Read together, the two statements reflect the complexity of the fight against the Taliban. Earlier in Swat/Malakand and now in South Waziristan, while the military has succeeded by first ‘emptying the sea’, i.e. forcing people to flee the theatre of operations to save life and limb, and then being able to bring to bear its superior firepower against any one remaining, presumed to be a militant, the fact that the leadership in both Swat/Malakand and South Waziristan appears to have escaped to relative safety indicates the nature of the present struggle. Guerrillas will preserve themselves by moving away in the face of overwhelming force, in order to live to fight another day. Thereby they are simply following the guerrilla precept of using space, time and will against a superior enemy to grind down his capability and will to fight. The temptation to declare premature ‘victory’ therefore should be tinged with the caution that this is going to be a protracted war and it would benefit the effort if the people are made aware of this aspect of the matter so as not to be disillusioned by a seemingly endless conflict. The prime minister reflected that perception by pointing out that no timeline could be given for an end to any offensive.
The military’s operations have been steadily widening to other agencies from South Waziristan. Actions against militants are ongoing or being planned in the following agencies: Kurram, Khyber, Bajaur, Mohmand, and in the Lower Dir area. This is an indication that the militants, to escape the military’s onslaught, are dispersing to other agencies and carrying out attacks in those areas, partly to divert the main thrust of the military’s offensive by forcing a dispersal of troops, partly to keep the impression of a live and active movement intact. The pressures on the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan have been revealed by Interior Minister Rehman Malik’s statement that Hakeemullah Mehsud, the successor to slain Baitullah Mehsud and current leader of the Tehreek, has been suing for peace and sent four offers of talks, all of which have been rejected by the authorities. Wisdom has clearly dawned on the latter that this talk about talks is merely a diversionary tactic to gain time, regroup, and take the offensive again against the state’s forces. After Swat and the outcome of the previous ‘peace’ agreements between the militants and the authorities, little room is left for illusions about the militants’ aims or their intransigence in wanting to impose their deviant interpretation of Islam on Pakistan’s Muslims.
Despite the mounting toll of Taliban casualties and the increasing seizures of weapons, ammunition and equipment, it is best to shun illusions of an early or easy victory over a very determined foe driven by the blinkers of an ideology that brooks no opposition. If the ‘jannat’ (paradise) captured the other day is anything to go by, the modern day Hashashin are amongst us, brainwashing children to become suicide bombers in a dubious, barbaric cause. Pakistan must stay the course if we are to see the back of this malignancy.